Africa Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Countries: Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, South Africa, and Kenya
Summary
Africa experienced widespread warmth this month, marked by average temperatures reaching 1.77°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. The intense heat was felt most acutely across North Africa, where record-breaking conditions sent temperatures soaring toward 49°C, driving dangerous wildfires in Algeria and Morocco while causing widespread power disruptions. At the same time, Pacific ocean conditions are ramping up, with a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec with an 81% probability. With shifting global weather patterns, African nations are preparing for heightened climate risks in the months ahead.
This month in numbers
Africa's average 1-month temperature anomaly reached +1.77°C above the 1961–1990 baseline, reflecting significant warming across much of the continent. Over the broader 3-month period, the anomaly stood at +1.61°C, while the 12-month rolling figure recorded an increase of +1.26°C. Across global regional rankings, European nations dominated the highest monthly anomalies, with 9 of the 10 warmest regions globally located in Europe. In contrast, southern African areas remained comparatively tempered over the longer term, with Botswana registering the 3rd lowest 12-month anomaly worldwide at +0.41°C.
Hottest & coolest countries
Morocco () recorded the highest temperature anomaly on the continent at +3.04°C above average, followed closely by South Sudan () at +2.96°C and Uganda () at +2.84°C. Algeria () also experienced severe regional warmth with a departure of +2.69°C. Conversely, coastal West African countries saw much smaller departures, with Ghana () registering the lowest anomaly on the continent at +0.63°C, alongside Nigeria () at +0.74°C.
What's driving change?
The primary atmospheric driver across the tropical belt is ENSO, tracked live at ENSO, where a moderate El Niño currently holds a Relative Niño Index anomaly of +0.98°C. Dynamical models indicate an 81% probability of this event escalating to a Very Strong El Niño between October and December. Across North Africa, stalled high-pressure systems formed that trapped scorching desert air over the region, exacerbating forest fires and grid disruptions. The extreme thermal stress was further magnified by , as parched ground reduced evaporative cooling across the Saharan borderlands and East Africa.
Looking ahead
Seasonal forecasts from major climate centres indicate that as El Niño strengthens through autumn and late spring in the Southern Hemisphere, much of Africa faces an elevated risk of above-average temperatures, with an increased likelihood of drought in eastern regions and heavy rainfall across parts of Central Africa over the next 1-3 months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Africa
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of member country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS); precipitation: GPCC (DWD).
Heatwave Days – Africa
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year. Equal-weight mean across 15 countries.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived), aggregated by 4BYO across member countries. Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Hottest & Coolest in Africa this Month
1-month anomaly vs 1961–1990 across the 15 members we cover. Click a name to open its profile.
Warmest
- 1.🇺🇬Uganda+3.07°C
- 2.🇲🇦Morocco+2.51°C
- 3.🇩🇿Algeria+2.46°C
- 4.🇸🇸South Sudan+2.36°C
- 5.🇪🇹Ethiopia+2.33°C
Coolest
- 1.🇸🇴Somalia+0.96°C
- 2.🇹🇿Tanzania+1.12°C
- 3.🇲🇼Malawi+1.16°C
- 4.🇿🇦South Africa+1.23°C
- 5.🇬🇭Ghana+1.27°C
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Africa
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of member country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS); precipitation: GPCC (DWD).
Monthly Temperature – Africa
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of member country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS); precipitation: GPCC (DWD).
Records – Africa
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of member country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS); precipitation: GPCC (DWD). - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Aw · TropicalAfrica doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 4.7°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 2× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Apr (-9 mm, -11%).
4byo continent aggregate · OWID/CRU TS country monthly temperatures & precipitation: GPCC (DWD). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Climate Systems
Loading ENSO tracker…
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Africa
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Continental land temperature anomaly. NOAA NCEI national & continental time series.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Africa changing?
Africa is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Africa come from?
Climate data for Africa comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Africa climate data cover?
The Africa climate profile covers Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, South Africa and surrounding areas. Continental temperature trends from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the Africa climate update refreshed?
The Africa climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Africa climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Africa climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.