Africa Climate – May 2026 Update
Top 5 Countries: Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, South Africa, and Kenya
This month in numbers
Africa experienced a significantly warmer May, with a 1-month temperature anomaly of +1.31°C compared to the 1961–1990 average. The 3-month anomaly stands at +0.91°C, and the 12-month rolling anomaly is +1.13°C. Globally, May 2026 was the second warmest May on record.
Hottest & coolest countries
Several African nations saw exceptionally high temperatures in May. Algeria climate page recorded the highest anomaly at +2.26°C, followed closely by South Sudan climate page at +2.06°C, and Morocco climate page at +1.97°C. In contrast, Malawi climate page experienced a comparatively cooler month, with an anomaly of +0.39°C.
What's driving change?
The current ENSO state is neutral, with an anomaly of +0.48°C. However, a rapid transition to El Niño is strongly forecast, with an 82% probability for May-Jul and a 98% probability for Aug-Oct. This developing El Niño is expected to significantly influence global weather patterns. May saw a "heat dome" of warm air from northern Africa contribute to record-breaking temperatures across Western Europe, highlighting the interconnectedness of regional weather systems. Meanwhile, parts of Southern Africa, including South Africa, experienced severe flooding in May, leading to a declared natural disaster and significant displacement and damage. This extreme rainfall is consistent with a trend towards more intense extreme weather events, amplified by a warmer atmosphere holding more moisture. Conversely, persistent dryness and drought conditions continued to affect parts of Eastern Africa, particularly southern Ethiopia and South Sudan, raising concerns for food security.
Looking ahead
The strong forecast for El Niño conditions in the coming months suggests a high likelihood of below-average rainfall across much of Southern Africa and parts of West Africa, while southeastern Ethiopia, northern Sudan, and most of Somalia are projected to receive enhanced rainfall.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
Temperature – Average
The 4byo Climate Helix – Africa
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of member country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS).
Africa – Monthly Temperature – All Years
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of member country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS).
Records – Africa
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of member country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS).
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Aw · TropicalAfrica doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 2.6°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 2× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly rainfall climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Oct (+9 mm, +13%).
4byo continent aggregate · OWID/CRU TS country monthly temperatures & rainfall. Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Climate Systems
Loading ENSO tracker…
Explore Countries on this Continent
This page shows the NOAA continental series. To browse country-level pages within Africa, use the countries tab on the Climate Updates hub and filter by continent.
Open Climate Updates → CountriesHottest & Coolest in Africa this Month
1-month anomaly vs 1961–1990 across the 15 members we cover. Click a name to open its profile.
Warmest
- 1.🇩🇿Algeria+2.26°C
- 2.🇸🇸South Sudan+2.06°C
- 3.🇲🇦Morocco+1.97°C
- 4.🇸🇴Somalia+1.96°C
- 5.🇪🇹Ethiopia+1.95°C
Coolest
- 1.🇲🇼Malawi+0.39°C
- 2.🇿🇦South Africa+0.52°C
- 3.🇪🇬Egypt+0.64°C
- 4.🇨🇩DR Congo+1.01°C
- 5.🇨🇬Congo+1.01°C
Data Sources
- NOAA Climate at a Glance — continental land temperature · Open at NOAA
- Two-baseline model — comparison baseline 1961–1990; native baseline 1901-2000. Methodology →
Data Sources
Data Sources for Africa
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Africa changing?
Africa is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Africa come from?
Climate data for Africa comes from authoritative climate datasets including national meteorological services and peer-reviewed reanalyses, refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Africa climate data cover?
The Africa climate profile covers Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, South Africa and surrounding areas. Continental temperature trends from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the Africa climate update refreshed?
The Africa climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.