Africa Climate – August 2026 Update
Top 5 Countries: Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, South Africa, and Kenya
Summary
Africa experienced widespread, exceptional warmth across the continent, with extreme heat scorching North Africa and the Sahel while severe dry spells degraded pastures and heightened food security risks in East Africa. The continent sits well above historical baselines as equatorial and interior areas endured anomalous warmth. Ocean and atmospheric coupling across the tropical Pacific continues to drive these continental weather shifts, with a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Aug-Oct with a 77% probability. Looking ahead, seasonal forecasts point to heightened flood risks across East Africa and continued dryness across parts of southern Africa in the coming months.
This month in numbers
For August 2026, Africa recorded a 1-month temperature anomaly of +2.15°C above the 1961 to 1990 baseline. This sits alongside a 3-month anomaly of +1.90°C and a 12-month rolling anomaly of +1.39°C, marking a sustained period of elevated temperatures across the region. In a global context, while 10 of the 10 warmest 1-month anomalies globally were concentrated in US states during July 2026, Africa continues to suffer widespread regional impacts from persistent atmospheric heating.
Hottest & coolest countries
National anomalies were led by South Sudan at, which recorded an extraordinary departure of +3.61°C above the long-term average, placing it as the warmest country on the continent. Warmth was also pronounced across East Africa and North Africa, with Uganda at reaching +3.07°C and Algeria at charting at +2.77°C above average. By contrast, Malawi at was among the coolest member countries relative to its baseline, though still running +0.52°C above average.
What's driving change?
The prevailing continental pattern is strongly connected to the ongoing ENSO phase at ENSO. The tropical Pacific currently exhibits a moderate El Niño with a 3-month Relative Niño Index anomaly of +1.36°C, which is modulating precipitation and temperature patterns across Africa. This atmospheric driver works in tandem with local mechanisms such as , where parched soils in East Africa prevent evaporative cooling and amplify ground temperatures into intense heat. Furthermore, has left severe rainfall deficits in parts of the Sahel and Horn of Africa. While regional heat dominates, localised extreme hazards persist elsewhere on the continent, including 19 active wildfires tracked in Zambia at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
Multi-week seasonal forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions and heightened flood risks across parts of East Africa from October to December, while widespread drier-than-average weather is expected to threaten agricultural areas in southern Africa.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Africa
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of member country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS); precipitation: GPCC (DWD).
Heatwave Days – Africa
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year. Equal-weight mean across 15 countries.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived), aggregated by 4BYO across member countries. Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Hottest & Coolest in Africa this Month
1-month anomaly vs 1961–1990 across the 15 members we cover. Click a name to open its profile.
Warmest
- 1.🇸🇸South Sudan+3.61°C
- 2.🇺🇬Uganda+3.07°C
- 3.🇩🇿Algeria+2.77°C
- 4.🇪🇹Ethiopia+2.32°C
- 5.🇨🇩DR Congo+2.09°C
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Africa
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of member country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS); precipitation: GPCC (DWD).
Monthly Temperature – Africa
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of member country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS); precipitation: GPCC (DWD).
Records – Africa
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of member country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS); precipitation: GPCC (DWD). - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Aw · TropicalAfrica doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 4.7°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 2× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Apr (-9 mm, -11%).
4byo continent aggregate · OWID/CRU TS country monthly temperatures & precipitation: GPCC (DWD). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Africa
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Continental land temperature anomaly. NOAA NCEI national & continental time series.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Africa changing?
Africa is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Africa come from?
Climate data for Africa comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Africa climate data cover?
The Africa climate profile covers Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, South Africa and surrounding areas. Continental temperature trends from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the Africa climate update refreshed?
The Africa climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Africa climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Africa climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.