Africa Climate – March 2026 Update
Top 5 Countries: Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, South Africa, and Kenya
This month in numbers
Africa experienced a significantly warmer March 2026, with a temperature anomaly of +1.34°C compared to the 1961–1990 average. The 3-month anomaly stood at +1.53°C, and the 12-month rolling anomaly was +1.18°C. Globally, the latest 1-month anomalies show a striking pattern, with all of the top 10 warmest regions being US states, indicating a concentrated area of extreme warmth outside of Africa.
Hottest & coolest countries
Several African nations experienced notably high temperatures in March. Algeria climate page recorded the highest anomaly at +2.70°C, followed closely by Morocco climate page at +2.45°C and Ethiopia climate page at +1.74°C. In contrast, South Africa climate page was the coolest country among those tracked, with an anomaly of +0.53°C.
What's driving change?
The current ENSO state is Neutral, with an anomaly of +0.11°C for February-April 2026. While currently neutral, there is a growing probability of El Niño developing in the latter half of 2026, with a 61% chance for May-July and rising to 87% for July-September ENSO tracker. This shift in ENSO could significantly influence future weather patterns across the continent. In March, Africa faced intensifying climate extremes, with persistent flooding across parts of southern Africa and deepening drought in Angola and other regions. Heavy rains in Kenya in March caused flash floods, particularly in Nairobi, leading to fatalities and displacement. Mozambique has also experienced widespread flooding since December 2025, affecting over 700,000 people. These events highlight the impact of and the effect. A recent study also revealed that Africa's coastlines are experiencing an accelerating sea level surge, with the 2023–2024 El Niño event triggering the most significant surge on record.
Looking ahead
Forecasts indicate a growing likelihood of El Niño developing in the coming months, which could bring drier conditions to southern Africa and potentially enhance rainfall in parts of East Africa later in the year.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
Temperature – Average
Africa – Monthly Temperature – All Years
Each line represents one year of monthly temperature in °C.
4BYO continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of member country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS).
Shifting Seasons
Weakly seasonalAfrica is weakly seasonal - temperature barely changes across the year (2.6°C range) and rainfall is fairly even. The clearest climate signal here is overall warming: monthly temperature has risen in every month.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Mar (+1.8°C). The warmest month has shifted from Aug to May.
4BYO continent aggregate · OWID/CRU TS country monthly temperatures.
Explore Countries on this Continent
This page shows the NOAA continental series. To browse country-level pages within Africa, use the countries tab on the Climate Updates hub and filter by continent.
Open Climate Updates → CountriesHottest & Coolest in Africa this Month
1-month anomaly vs 1961–1990 across the 15 members we cover. Click a name to open its profile.
Warmest
- 1.🇩🇿Algeria+2.70°C
- 2.🇲🇦Morocco+2.45°C
- 3.🇪🇹Ethiopia+1.74°C
- 4.🇸🇸South Sudan+1.71°C
- 5.🇬🇭Ghana+1.55°C
Coolest
- 1.🇿🇦South Africa+0.53°C
- 2.🇸🇴Somalia+0.72°C
- 3.🇰🇪Kenya+1.02°C
- 4.🇪🇬Egypt+1.04°C
- 5.🇲🇼Malawi+1.07°C
Data Sources
- NOAA Climate at a Glance — continental land temperature · Open at NOAA
- Two-baseline model — comparison baseline 1961–1990; native baseline 1901-2000. Methodology →
Data Sources
Data Sources for Africa
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Africa changing?
Africa is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Africa come from?
Climate data for Africa comes from authoritative climate datasets including national meteorological services and peer-reviewed reanalyses, refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Africa climate data cover?
The Africa climate profile covers Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, South Africa and surrounding areas. Continental temperature trends from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the Africa climate update refreshed?
The Africa climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.