Morocco Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Casablanca, Rabat, Fes, Marrakesh, and Tangier
Summary
Morocco experienced its 3rd warmest July on record, marked by severe inland heatwaves that drove daytime temperatures up to 48°C. The national monthly average temperature reached 29.24°C, standing 2.5°C above the historical baseline. This extreme warmth unfolded alongside a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong between September and November, with elevated heat likely to persist across North Africa into late summer.
This month in numbers
The average temperature for the month reached 29.24°C, sitting 2.5°C above the 1961–1990 baseline and ranking as Morocco's 3rd warmest July in 87 years of records, just shy of the 29.39°C mark set in 2020. This capstone followed an extraordinary three-month period from May to July 2026, which averaged 25.74°C (a 2.6°C anomaly) to also rank 3rd warmest on record. Across the continent, Morocco stood out as the 2nd warmest mover in the Africa group, exceeding the regional average anomaly of +1.78°C by 0.73°C, while global land temperatures recorded their 3rd warmest July on record.
What changed
Morocco's recent thermal surge reflects a persistent, multi-month warming trend rather than an isolated spike. The country's 3-month temperature anomaly of +2.6°C ranks 24th highest among 232 regions tracked globally, matching a broader pattern where environments. Long-term records show that Morocco's annual climate has warmed by 1.61°C above baseline levels, with recent years dominating the charts: 2025 was the 7th warmest year on record at 20.3°C, following the record-breaking warmth of 2023 at 21.0°C.
What’s driving change?
The persistent extreme temperatures are primarily driven by strong atmospheric ridge building and , where parched terrain prevents evaporative cooling and allows heat to build unchecked across inland basins. On a broader scale, global climate dynamics are influenced by an active El Niño in the tropical Pacific, currently at moderate strength with an anomaly of +0.98°C, which can be tracked at ENSO. While historical teleconnections for the North African Mediterranean during El Niño show a modest reliability of around 45% toward hotter and drier summer conditions, the compounding effects of background global warming and localized high-pressure systems remain the primary drivers of Morocco's high thermal anomalies.
Looking ahead
Seasonal climate forecasts indicate that above-average temperatures and dry conditions will likely persist across North Africa through late summer, while atmospheric models project a 93% probability that the current El Niño will intensify into a Very Strong event between September and November.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Morocco
Köppen BWh · AridMorocco has a arid climate (Köppen BWh: Hot desert), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. August is typically the warmest month, averaging 28.5°C, while January is the coldest at 12.8°C. Annual precipitation averages around 162mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Morocco
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Morocco
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Morocco
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Morocco
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Morocco
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen BSh · AridMorocco has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±8.0°C) and a wet/dry cycle (16× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Nov (-25 mm, -61%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Morocco
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Morocco changing?
Morocco is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Morocco?
Morocco has a arid climate (Köppen BWh: Hot desert), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. August is typically the warmest month, averaging 28.5°C, while January is the coldest at 12.8°C. Annual precipitation averages around 162mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Morocco come from?
Climate data for Morocco comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Morocco climate data cover?
The Morocco climate profile covers Casablanca, Rabat, Fes, Marrakesh and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Morocco
How often is the Morocco climate update refreshed?
The Morocco climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Morocco climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Morocco climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.