Nigeria Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Lagos, Kano, Ibadan, Abuja, and Port Harcourt
Summary
Nigeria experienced exceptional warmth during a severe monsoon period, registering its 2nd warmest July in records dating back to 1940. Intense heat combined with heavy monsoonal downpours to trigger severe flash flooding that submerged homes, farmland, and urban infrastructure across multiple states. Over the broader three-month period, temperatures remained significantly above average, matching a broader global warming pattern with heavy seasonal rainfall expected to continue in the coming weeks.
This month in numbers
The nation recorded an average temperature of 26.98°C in July 2026, standing 1.7°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. This marks the 2nd warmest July on record, trailing only the 27.22°C registered in 2023. This unusual warmth was mirrored over the three-month period ending this month, which averaged 28.29°C (+1.2°C anomaly) to rank as the 3rd warmest May–July period on record. Globally, land temperatures in July reached 15.8°C (+1.6°C anomaly), placing the period 3rd highest in global records.
What changed
The elevated warmth during the recent May–July stretch reflects a sustained warming trend across West Africa. Nigeria recorded its warmest calendar year on record in 2025 at an average of 27.78°C, contributing to a long-term warming trajectory of +0.86°C above historic baselines. Across the wider African continent, temperatures averaged 1.78°C above normal this month, placing Nigeria roughly 0.11°C cooler than its continental peers despite its own high rankings.
What’s driving change?
Regional warming is being accelerated because , raising air temperatures faster inland than over adjacent marine waters. This background heat exacerbates , as a warmer atmosphere holds additional moisture, transforming seasonal rains into torrential downpours. During the month, heavy rainfall triggered severe flash floods across key agricultural and urban areas including Lagos, Bauchi, and Edo, inundating infrastructure and farmlands.
Looking ahead
Seasonal climate advisories indicate that above-normal rainfall and heightened flash flood risks will remain a major hazard across multiple states over the next 1–3 months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Nigeria
Köppen Aw · TropicalNigeria has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. April is typically the warmest month, averaging 30.9°C, while January is the coldest at 25.4°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1077mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Nigeria
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Nigeria
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Nigeria
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Nigeria
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Nigeria
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Aw · TropicalNigeria doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 5.0°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 21× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: May (-33 mm, -23%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Nigeria
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Nigeria changing?
Nigeria is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Nigeria?
Nigeria has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. April is typically the warmest month, averaging 30.9°C, while January is the coldest at 25.4°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1077mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Nigeria come from?
Climate data for Nigeria comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Nigeria climate data cover?
The Nigeria climate profile covers Lagos, Kano, Ibadan, Abuja and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Nigeria
How often is the Nigeria climate update refreshed?
The Nigeria climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Nigeria climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Nigeria climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.