Uganda Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Kampala, Gulu, Lira, Mbarara, and Jinja
Summary
Uganda experienced its hottest month on record in July 2026, capping an exceptionally warm seasonal start that saw severe drought conditions spread across the country. Suppressed rainfall and relentless heat depleted water supplies and withered crops, leaving over 400,000 people in the Karamoja sub-region facing acute food insecurity. With a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Sep-Nov, rainfall patterns are expected to shift toward heavy equatorial downpours in coming weeks.
This month in numbers
In July 2026, Uganda recorded an average temperature of 24.3°C, which sits 3.1°C above the 1961–1990 baseline and ranks 1st in 87 years of observational records. The May–July 2026 seasonal window was similarly unprecedented, averaging 24.18°C with a +2.6°C anomaly to also rank 1st on record. Globally, land temperatures for the month reached 15.8°C (+1.6°C anomaly), marking the 3rd highest figure ever recorded for July.
What changed
The record warmth in Uganda follows a sustained rise in temperatures that culminated in 2025 being the 4th warmest full year on record at 23.86°C, building on a long-term warming trend of +1.53°C above baseline. On the continental level, tracked on Africa, Uganda stood out as the largest upward mover in Africa, running 1.29°C warmer than the African average anomaly for the month.
What’s driving change?
The persistent heat is fueled by the reality that , allowing interior landmasses to heat rapidly during cloudless spells. Low soil moisture created , preventing the ground from cooling through evaporation and further elevating air temperatures. Atmospheric circulation was further influenced by ENSO, as a moderate El Niño in the Pacific suppressed rainfall across equatorial East Africa during the middle of the year, with live tracking available at ENSO.
Looking ahead
Seasonal climate models indicate that an intensifying El Niño, with a 93% probability of reaching Very Strong status in Sep-Nov, will likely transition the region from dry conditions to enhanced rainfall and potential flooding over the next 1-3 months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Uganda
Köppen Aw · TropicalUganda has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. February is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.5°C, while August is the coldest at 22.8°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1123mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Uganda
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Uganda
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Uganda
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Uganda
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Uganda
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Aw · TropicalUganda doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 1.9°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 6× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Apr (-31 mm, -18%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Uganda
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Uganda changing?
Uganda is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Uganda?
Uganda has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. February is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.5°C, while August is the coldest at 22.8°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1123mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Uganda come from?
Climate data for Uganda comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Uganda climate data cover?
The Uganda climate profile covers Kampala, Gulu, Lira, Mbarara and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Uganda
How often is the Uganda climate update refreshed?
The Uganda climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Uganda climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Uganda climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.