Uganda Climate
Top 5 Cities: Kampala, Gulu, Lira, Mbarara, and Jinja
This month in numbers
Uganda experienced its 9th warmest April on record, with an average temperature of 23.71°C, marking an anomaly of +1.3°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. The period of February–April 2026 was the 3rd warmest on record for Uganda, with an average temperature of 25.2°C, a significant +2.2°C above the baseline. Globally, April 2026 was the 2nd warmest April on record for land temperatures, and the February–April period also ranked as the 2nd warmest globally for land temperatures.
What changed
Uganda's recent warmth is part of a broader trend, with the country recording its warmest year on record in 2025, at 24.17°C. The long-term trend shows a warming of +1.51°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. This February–April period saw Uganda's temperature anomaly of +2.2°C place it 70th out of 234 regions globally for the 3-month anomaly. The wider Africa group, to which Uganda belongs, also experienced warmer-than-average conditions, with a 3-month anomaly of +1.49°C.
What’s driving change?
The warming trend in Uganda is influenced by the global phenomenon of . Additionally, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a tropical system of clouds and rain, was in a strong phase over Uganda in February, contributing to unusual rainfall patterns during what is typically a dry month. This led to heavy rainfall and flash flood alerts across various regions, including the Lake Victoria Basin and Mount Elgon areas. While the current ENSO state is Neutral, with a +0.11°C anomaly, forecasts indicate a 61% chance of El Niño developing by May-Jul 2026, increasing to 87% by Jul-Sep 2026. Historically, El Niño events typically bring wetter conditions to East Africa, particularly during the "short rains" season, often leading to flooding and locust outbreaks. ENSO tracker
Looking ahead
The March–May 2026 seasonal forecast for Uganda anticipates near-average to above-average rainfall in the Northwestern region, areas around Lake Victoria, and parts of the Eastern region, with warmer-than-normal temperatures expected throughout the season.
Sources:
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Uganda
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Uganda changing?
Uganda is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Uganda come from?
Climate data for Uganda comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Uganda climate data cover?
The Uganda climate profile covers Kampala, Gulu, Lira, Mbarara and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Uganda
How often is the Uganda climate update refreshed?
The Uganda climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.