Malawi Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Lilongwe, Blantyre, Mzuzu, Zomba, and Karonga
Summary
Malawi experienced its 5th warmest July on record, capping off a remarkably warm May–July period that ranked as the 3rd warmest in 87 years of data. With temperatures running significantly above historical baselines, government agencies and international humanitarian groups have launched emergency preparedness strategies ahead of a strengthening El Niño, warning that elevated heat and impending dry spells could severely threaten crop yields and food security, with unseasonably warm and dry conditions expected to persist over coming months.
This month in numbers
Mean temperatures reached 19.03°C in July 2026, sitting 1.2°C above the 1961–1990 baseline and marking the 5th warmest iteration of the month since records began in 1940. This follows an unusually warm start to the dry season: the 3-month May–July stretch averaged 20.0°C, which is 1.2°C above normal and the 3rd warmest May–July period on record, trailing behind only 1983 and 2024.
What changed
The 3-month May–July temperature anomaly of +1.2°C placed Malawi 130th out of 232 global regions tracked in our dataset, keeping it roughly 0.62°C cooler than the overall African regional average of +1.65°C. These warm winter conditions build upon a multi-decadal trend of regional warming, with Malawi's long-term average temperature rising by +0.89°C over historical baselines and 2025 standing as the 18th warmest full year on record.
What’s driving change?
The elevated temperatures across Malawi are largely tied to the ongoing development of ENSO in the tropical Pacific, where a moderate El Niño is currently active and monitored on our live tracker at ENSO. In Southern Africa, El Niño events historically trigger and reduced precipitation with roughly 70% reliability, creating that drives ambient air temperatures higher and exacerbates heat stress across agricultural districts.
Looking ahead
Official forecasts indicate a 93% probability that the current moderate El Niño will intensify into a Very Strong event between September and November, threatening widespread dry spells and delayed rainfall across Malawi into the main agricultural season.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Malawi
Köppen Aw · TropicalMalawi has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. November is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.6°C, while July is the coldest at 18.4°C. Annual precipitation averages around 918mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Malawi
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Malawi
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Malawi
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Malawi
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Malawi
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen Cwa · TemperateMalawi has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±3.4°C) and a wet/dry cycle (28× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Feb (-67 mm, -27%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Malawi
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Malawi changing?
Malawi is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Malawi?
Malawi has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. November is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.6°C, while July is the coldest at 18.4°C. Annual precipitation averages around 918mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Malawi come from?
Climate data for Malawi comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Malawi climate data cover?
The Malawi climate profile covers Lilongwe, Blantyre, Mzuzu, Zomba and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Malawi
How often is the Malawi climate update refreshed?
The Malawi climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Malawi climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Malawi climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.