Top 5 Cities: Lilongwe, Blantyre, Mzuzu, Zomba, and Karonga
Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Malawi
A fresh climate update for Malawi is being generated…
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Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature anomalies.
Metric
Insight
Temperature
10-Yr AverageActual Year
Climate History
36 of 36 events
1912Volcanic
Novarupta (Katmai) eruption
The largest volcanic eruption anywhere in the world in the 20th century - 13 km3 of magma, about thirty times the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption - at Novarupta in Alaska on 6-8 June 1912. Ash reached 100,000 ft and cooled the Northern Hemisphere by roughly 0.3°C over 1912-13. Unlike a tropical eruption such as Pinatubo, a high-latitude eruption's haze stays in its own hemisphere, so it did little to the Southern Hemisphere.
After the Second World War, coal and oil use grew rapidly across Europe, North America and the Soviet Union. Global sulphur dioxide emissions rose from about 30 to about 130 million tonnes a year by 1980, and the sulphate haze they formed masked part of the greenhouse warming underneath - the effect known as 'global dimming'.
ENSO matters in Malawi, most of all in February-April: the El Niño-La Niña cycle explains about 34% of the year-to-year swing in Malawi's February-April temperatures, with El Niño years tending warmer and La Niña years cooler. That puts Malawi among the 88 countries in this site's data where ENSO's influence is strong enough to be worth reporting.
Charles David Keeling begins continuous measurements of atmospheric CO₂ at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, starting at about 315 ppm. The record has risen every year since and is now the longest unbroken direct measurement of CO₂ anywhere - the 'Keeling Curve'.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation - a slow natural cycle in North Pacific sea temperatures - switches from its cool to its warm phase in 1976-77. The change was abrupt enough to be called the 1976-77 Pacific Climate Shift: it warmed Alaska and the west coast of North America, and reorganised North Pacific fisheries.
Global sulphur dioxide emissions peak at about 130 million tonnes a year, then begin a long decline as Europe, North America and Japan clean up their air. As the aerosol mask thins, the rate of global warming picks up through the 1980s.
A sulphur-rich eruption in Mexico whose aerosol cloud stayed in the stratosphere for more than two years, cooling the Northern Hemisphere by about 0.2°C.
Malawi's temperatures for February-April 1983 ran +1.1°C against the 1961-90 average - the warm February-April that El Niño usually brings here. On NOAA's Relative Oceanic Niño Index this is the strongest El Niño since 1950.
British Antarctic Survey scientists Joe Farman, Brian Gardiner and Jon Shanklin publish their Halley and Faraday measurements on 16 May 1985, showing October ozone over Antarctica had fallen to about two-thirds of earlier decades. The cause is traced to chlorofluorocarbons, and the finding triggers the fastest international environmental response on record.
Signed in 1987 to phase out ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons, the Montreal Protocol turned out to be one of the most consequential climate treaties ever agreed. CFCs are potent greenhouse gases in their own right, and NOAA estimates the Protocol prevented up to 2°C of warming by 2100 - around 1°C from the emissions avoided, and up to 1°C more by sparing forests and other carbon sinks from increased ultraviolet radiation.
Atmospheric CO₂ passes 350 ppm. In the same year James Hansen told a US Senate committee that global warming was already detectable, the moment it entered mainstream politics. Twenty years later, in 2008, Hansen proposed 350 ppm as the safe upper limit - a level the world had already left behind.
Daytime warming catches up with the night-led pattern
Across 1961-90, 81% of the world's land saw nights warming faster than days. Across 1991-2020 the pattern reversed: 70% saw days warming faster, as the industrial haze that had been dimming daytime sunshine was cleaned up. The study compares two fixed thirty-year windows; measured as a turning point, this site's own global series turns around 1982.
Pinatubo's cooling does not show in Malawi's own record. 1992, the year after the June 1991 eruption, was warmer than most years there - the 9th-warmest of 76. A single large eruption can hold temperatures down for two or three years; it cannot reverse the trend.
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation flips to a warm phase
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation - a slow natural cycle in North Atlantic sea temperatures, roughly 60-70 years long - flips to its warm phase in 1995. Warm phases are linked to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons, wetter summers in parts of north-west Europe and more frequent drought in the central and western United States.
Malawi's temperatures for February-April 1998 ran +0.9°C against the 1961-90 average - the warm February-April that El Niño usually brings here. It is often treated as the textbook strong El Niño.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation flips back to a cool phase
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation - a slow natural cycle in North Pacific sea temperatures - flips back to its cool phase around 1998-99. The cool phase that followed is one reason global surface warming appeared to slow in the 2000s, as more heat went into the deep Pacific.
Malawi's own heatwave days - days in warm spells well above the local norm - rose from a 1961-90 average of 2.6 a year to 15.3 in 2016-25 - 6 times as many. Worldwide, heatwave days have roughly doubled each decade since 2010, as the whole temperature distribution has shifted upwards.
Malawi's temperatures for February-April 2011 ran +0.3°C against the 1961-90 average - the opposite of the cool February-April La Niña usually brings here.
Atmospheric CO₂ passes 400 ppm at Mauna Loa on 9 May 2013 - a level the planet had not seen for 3-5 million years, since the Pliocene, when sea levels were many metres higher.
Malawi's temperatures for February-April 2016 ran +1.6°C against the 1961-90 average - the warm February-April that El Niño usually brings here. By the raw ONI index it was the strongest El Niño ever measured - a reminder that a strong index does not guarantee a strong local outcome.
Globally, the eleven warmest years on record have all happened since 2015. Malawi follows it closely: seven of its own eleven warmest fall in that span, with 2005, 1995, 1992 and 1983 outside. Its warmest year is 2024.
2016 is Malawi's 3rd-warmest year in this site's 1950-2025 record. The very strong 2015-16 El Niño brought southern Africa its worst drought in 35 years, with food crop production down by up to two-thirds in some countries.
Cyclone Idai came ashore at Beira, Mozambique, on the night of 14-15 March 2019, and its winds and floods killed more than 1,000 people across Mozambique (602), Zimbabwe (344) and Malawi (at least 59). More than two million people were affected - one of the deadliest tropical cyclones on record in the southern hemisphere.
Global fossil CO₂ emissions fell about 5.8% in 2020, from 37.0 to 34.8 billion tonnes, yet atmospheric CO₂ still rose 2.5 ppm - the dip barely registers in the atmospheric record. Emissions were back to pre-pandemic levels by 2022.
New international shipping rules cut the sulphur allowed in ship fuel from 3.5% to 0.5% almost overnight, removing about 8 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide a year. With less sulphate haze over the oceans, it may have added around 0.1°C of warming by 2023-24.
Malawi's temperatures for February-April 2021 ran +0.3°C against the 1961-90 average - the opposite of the cool February-April La Niña usually brings here.
Malawi's temperatures for February-April 2024 ran +1.4°C against the 1961-90 average - the warm February-April that El Niño usually brings here. Globally it helped produce the record temperatures of 2023 and 2024.
The 2023-24 El Niño brought southern Africa its worst mid-season dry spell in more than a century. Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe declared national disasters; harvests failed across the region, and more than 27 million people were affected in its worst hunger crisis in decades.
Source: Copernicus ERA5 (countries) · NOAA Climate at a Glance (continents, US states & climate regions) · Met Office (UK) · GPCC (rainfall, snow) · World Bank CCKP (frost). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Malawi has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. November is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.6°C, while July is the coldest at 18.4°C. Annual precipitation averages around 918mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Warmest month
Nov 26°C
Coldest month
Jul 18°C
Annual rainfall
918mm
Wettest month
Jan 228mm
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Malawi has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±3.4°C) and a wet/dry cycle (28× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Shifting summer
31 days Longer
Warm Season
1940–1969 Baseline: 9 Sept → 13 Apr · 216 days
2016–2025 Now: 29 Aug → 3 May · 247 days
−11d+20d
JanJFebFMarMAprAMayMJunJJulJAugASepSOctONovNDecD
Spr 11 days EarlierAut 20 days Later
Shifting wet season
5 days Shorter
Wet Season
1891–1920 Baseline: 28 Dec → 13 Mar · 74 days
2016–2025 Now: 29 Dec → 8 Mar · 70 days
0d−5d
JanJFebFMarMAprAMayMJunJJulJAugASepSOctONovNDecD
Onset 0 days LaterEnd 4 days Earlier
-18.7% annual rain
baseline avgrecent avgClickTap a marker for each decade
Wet-season onset
28 Dec→29 Dec
0 days Later
When 25% of annual rain has fallen
Wet-season end
13 Mar→8 Mar
4 days Earlier
When 75% of annual rain has fallen
Peak-rain month
Feb→Jan
-1 month
Wet months: 5 → 4
1891–19202016–2025Wet-month threshold (94 mm)
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Feb (-67 mm, -27%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Live GDACS alerts in Malawi - Red (Major), Orange (Severe) or Green (Moderate) - and the long-term record of weather and climate disasters.
Live Alerts
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Alerts, Last 12 Months
Major
0
None since 2021
Severe
0
0.8 a year since 2021
Moderate
6
Weather Disasters in 2024 - Latest Complete Year
Disasters
4
2.5 a year, 2015-2024
Deaths
30
175 a year, 2015-2024
Weather Disasters, 2015-2024
Most Frequent
Flood
13 of 25 disasters
Deadliest
Storms & Cyclones
1,311 of 1,754 deaths
Disasters: EM-DAT, CRED / UCLouvain, via Our World in Data - 10+ deaths, 100+ people affected, or a declared emergency or call for international help. Alerts: GDACS.
The natural climate patterns that measurably shape seasonal temperature or rainfall in Malawi, from this site’s own data since 1950 - long-term trends removed, and ENSO’s share taken out before scoring the others, so each is credited only for what it adds.
El Niño / La Niña (ENSO)strong link
The tropical Pacific’s warm and cool swings - the biggest natural driver of year-to-year climate.
Now: El Niño (strong) · RONI +1.7°C(Jul-Sep 2026)
Forecast - 100% very strong at peak, Sep-Nov, then neutral by Apr-Jun 2027 (NOAA). La Niña from Oct 2027 in SNU’s AI model.
Strongest in Feb-Apr temperature: El Niño tends to bring warmer conditions here, La Niña the reverse (about 34% of year-to-year variation).
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Malawi is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Malawi?
Malawi has a tropical climate (Köppen Aw: Tropical savanna (dry winter)), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. November is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.6°C, while July is the coldest at 18.4°C. Annual precipitation averages around 918mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Which climate drivers affect the weather in Malawi?
Measured from seasonal temperature and rainfall in Malawi since 1950, with the long-term warming trend removed (and ENSO's own share removed before scoring the other drivers), the climate drivers with a clear effect here are: El Niño / La Niña (ENSO) - strong, strongest in Feb-Apr temperature, which El Niño tends to make warmer here (La Niña the reverse), about 34% of year-to-year variation. Their current state is shown in the Climate Drivers section of this page.
What extreme weather affects Malawi?
In 2024, the latest complete year, the international disaster database EM-DAT recorded 4 weather and climate disasters in Malawi, against an average of 2.5 a year in 2015-2024, with 30 deaths. Over those ten years the most frequent type was flood (13 of 25) and the deadliest storms & cyclones. GDACS, the UN and European Commission's disaster alert system, issued 0 Major (Red) and 0 Severe (Orange) alerts for Malawi in the last 12 months. Live alerts are on this page and on the Extreme Weather tracker.
Where does the climate data for Malawi come from?
Climate data for Malawi comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Malawi climate data cover?
The Malawi climate profile covers Lilongwe, Blantyre, Mzuzu, Zomba and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Malawi
How often is the Malawi climate update refreshed?
The Malawi climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Malawi climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Malawi climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.
What major climate events has Malawi experienced?
Major climate events in Malawi include Southern Africa's El Niño drought, 2015-16; Cyclone Idai (2019); Southern Africa's El Niño drought, 2024. The Climate History panel on this page lists 36 sourced events and pattern shifts relevant to Malawi, the earliest from 1912 - 3 about Malawi itself and the rest global context such as volcanic eruptions and El Niño events. Each entry carries its own sources and can be searched, filtered to local events or by category, and sorted by date; scrolling the list moves a cursor across the chart above so you can see where each event falls in the record.
Where does the Climate History list for Malawi come from, and how is it checked?
It is a hand-reviewed register, not an automatic feed. Every entry is sourced, and each one records how it was verified - against this site's own data series, against a peer-reviewed paper, or against the public record of the event. 18 of the 36 entries here are written specifically about Malawi, usually quoting its own ranking or measured figures. The rest give global or national context shared with wider pages. Where a figure is narrower than it first appears, or a famous claim does not hold locally, the entry says so.
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