Malawi Climate
Top 5 Cities: Lilongwe, Blantyre, Mzuzu, Zomba, and Karonga
This month in numbers
Malawi experienced its 11th warmest April on record in 2026, with an average temperature of 22.79°C, an anomaly of +1.1°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. The period of February–April 2026 ranked as the 8th warmest on record, with an anomaly of +1°C. Globally, April 2026 was the 2nd warmest April for land temperatures, with an anomaly of +1.1°C, while the February–April 2026 period was also the 2nd warmest for global land temperatures, with an anomaly of +1.2°C.
What changed
Malawi has seen consistently warmer-than-average temperatures over the past six months, with December 2025 recording a significant anomaly of +2.8°C. The country's average temperature for 2025 was 22.81°C, making it the warmest year on record. This warming trend aligns with the broader regional picture for Africa, which experienced a 1-month anomaly of +1.38°C, a 3-month anomaly of +1.49°C, and a 12-month anomaly of +1.68°C. Malawi's latest 1-month anomaly was 0.31°C cooler than the African group average.
What’s driving change?
The warming trend in Malawi is influenced by the broader global climate change, with the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS) attributing the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events to climate change. The current ENSO state is Neutral, with a +0.11°C anomaly for February-April 2026 [cite: ENSO LIVE STATE]. However, forecasts indicate a strong likelihood of El Niño developing in the coming months, with a 61% chance for May-July and a 79% chance for June-August [cite: ENSO LIVE STATE]. Historically, El Niño events typically bring warmer and drier conditions to Southern Africa, often leading to major maize-belt droughts and widespread food insecurity, as seen in 2015-16 and 2023-24 [cite: ENSO LIVE STATE].
Malawi has also been significantly impacted by widespread flooding during the February-April period. Heavy rainfall in early January and again on January 20, 2026, caused devastating floods in Nkhotakota District, displacing thousands and resulting in deaths and injuries. Further nationwide flooding occurred between March 15 and 18, 2026, affecting 23 councils, impacting over 310,000 people, and causing 34 deaths and 197 injuries. These events highlight the country's vulnerability to extreme weather, with the government warning that climate change is driving a surge in such events.
Looking ahead
The forecast suggests an evolving El Niño phase in the coming months, which typically brings warmer and drier conditions to Southern Africa, potentially impacting agricultural output.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Malawi
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Malawi changing?
Malawi is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Malawi come from?
Climate data for Malawi comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Malawi climate data cover?
The Malawi climate profile covers Lilongwe, Blantyre, Mzuzu, Zomba and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Malawi
How often is the Malawi climate update refreshed?
The Malawi climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.