South Sudan Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Juba, Wau, Malakal, Yei, and Aweil
Summary
South Sudan experienced its 4th warmest July on record, capping a period since May that marked the country's 5th warmest three-month stretch since 1940. Widespread heat and acute rainfall deficits prompted humanitarian agencies to trigger anticipatory drought action in eastern regions like Kapoeta North, even as residual floodwaters lingered in the central Sudd wetlands. A moderate El Niño is currently intensifying in the Pacific and is forecast to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec, pointing towards erratic weather and potential short-rains flooding over the coming months.
This month in numbers
During July 2026, South Sudan recorded an average temperature of 27.55°C, placing it 2.4°C above the 1961-1990 baseline as the 4th warmest on record for the month. The persistent warmth built on an extraordinarily hot start to the season, with the May to July three-month average reaching 28.76°C, a 2.4°C anomaly that ranks as the 5th warmest such period on record. Globally, land temperatures in July ran 1.6°C above average, standing as the 3rd warmest for the month recorded worldwide.
What changed
The mid-year heat continues a long-term warming trajectory in South Sudan, where temperatures have climbed by 1.97°C compared to the 1961-1990 baseline, following a 2025 that registered as the 12th warmest year overall. Across the continental group tracked at Africa, where overall land anomalies averaged +1.78°C this month, South Sudan stood out as the 4th warmest country in Africa, running 0.58°C above the group average. This regional heatwave coincided with expanding dry conditions across the Greater Horn, where reduced rainfall has intensified agricultural dryness across southern and eastern counties.
What’s driving change?
The elevated summer temperatures are heavily influenced by , as shifting atmospheric patterns delay and suppress seasonal rainfall across East Africa, leaving soils parched. This desiccation triggers , where depleted soil moisture prevents natural evaporative cooling and forces solar radiation directly into heating the ground and lower atmosphere. On a broader scale, a moderate El Niño, tracked at ENSO, is reshaping global atmospheric circulation, historically bringing erratic rainfall and elevated temperatures to the Horn of Africa before the main short-rains season begins.
Looking ahead
Seasonal forecasts indicate that abnormal warmth and variable rainfall will persist through late summer, with the intensifying El Niño holding an 81% probability of reaching Very Strong intensity in Oct-Dec, which historically increases the risk of heavy late-year flooding across East Africa.
Sources:
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – South Sudan
Köppen As · TropicalSouth Sudan has a tropical climate (Köppen As: Tropical savanna (dry summer)), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. March is typically the warmest month, averaging 32.0°C, while August is the coldest at 25.6°C. Annual precipitation averages around 875mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – South Sudan
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – South Sudan
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – South Sudan
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – South Sudan
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – South Sudan
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Aw · TropicalSouth Sudan doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 4.4°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 40× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Jul (-26 mm, -18%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Data Sources
Data Sources for South Sudan
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in South Sudan changing?
South Sudan is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in South Sudan?
South Sudan has a tropical climate (Köppen As: Tropical savanna (dry summer)), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. March is typically the warmest month, averaging 32.0°C, while August is the coldest at 25.6°C. Annual precipitation averages around 875mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for South Sudan come from?
Climate data for South Sudan comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the South Sudan climate data cover?
The South Sudan climate profile covers Juba, Wau, Malakal, Yei and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for South Sudan
How often is the South Sudan climate update refreshed?
The South Sudan climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the South Sudan climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the South Sudan climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.