Somalia Climate
Top 5 Cities: Mogadishu, Hargeisa, Bosaso, Kismayo, and Baidoa
This month in numbers
Somalia experienced its 8th warmest February–April on record, with an average temperature of 27.15°C, an anomaly of +0.8°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. April 2026 alone ranked as the 17th warmest April on record at 27.81°C, an anomaly of +0.7°C. Globally, April 2026 was the 2nd warmest April for land temperatures, with an anomaly of +1.1°C, while the February–April period also ranked as the 2nd warmest globally for land temperatures, with an anomaly of +1.2°C.
What changed
The past three months have seen Somalia continue a trend of warmer-than-average conditions, placing it among the warmest on record. Somalia's 3-month anomaly of +0.77°C ranks it 210th out of 234 regions globally for temperature anomaly, indicating that while it is experiencing warmer conditions, many other regions are warming at a more accelerated rate. The broader African continent, of which Somalia is a part, has also experienced significantly warmer conditions, with a group mean anomaly of +1.49°C for the same three-month period.
What’s driving change?
The persistent warm and dry conditions in Somalia are largely driven by the ongoing drought, which has been exacerbated by a failed Deyr rainy season in 2025 and an unusually harsh Jilaal dry season from February to March 2026. This has led to widespread water scarcity, crop failures, and significant livestock losses. The current ENSO state is Neutral, with a weekly Niño 3.4 SST anomaly of +0.9°C as of April 29, 2026. However, forecasts indicate a strong likelihood of El Niño developing in the coming months, with a 61% chance for May-July and a 79% chance for June-August. Historically, El Niño events in East Africa typically bring wetter conditions during the "short rains" (October-December), often leading to flooding and locust outbreaks. In April, heavy rainfall in the Banadir region caused widespread flooding, displacing over 4,000 people, many of whom were already displaced by conflict. The effect is also contributing to the warming trend, as parched land cannot cool itself through evaporation.
Looking ahead
The forecast for the coming months suggests a likely transition to El Niño conditions, which could bring wetter conditions to Somalia during the "short rains" season later in the year, potentially offering some relief from the current drought, though the immediate impacts of the drought are expected to persist.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
Loading climate data...
Data Sources
Data Sources for Somalia
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Somalia changing?
Somalia is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Somalia come from?
Climate data for Somalia comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Somalia climate data cover?
The Somalia climate profile covers Mogadishu, Hargeisa, Bosaso, Kismayo and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Somalia
How often is the Somalia climate update refreshed?
The Somalia climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.