Somalia Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Mogadishu, Hargeisa, Bosaso, Kismayo, and Baidoa
Summary
Somalia experienced another month of relentless heat as dry soils and climate pressures continued to exacerbate a widespread humanitarian displacement crisis across the nation. The country recorded its 5th warmest July on record, while a moderate El Niño currently active in the Pacific is forecast to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec. Persistent dry conditions have forced hundreds of thousands of people from their homes this year, even as forecasters warn that the incoming weather pattern could trigger severe flooding later in the year.
This month in numbers
The average temperature for July reached 27.63°C, sitting 1.0°C above the 1961–1990 historical baseline. This made it the 5th highest temperature for the month in 87 years of observation, falling just behind the record set in 2024. On the global stage, land temperatures for the same month averaged 15.8°C with a +1.6°C anomaly, marking the 3rd warmest such period recorded globally.
What changed
The hot stretch extends across the broader May–July season, which averaged 28.26°C (+1.2°C anomaly) to rank as Somalia's 5th warmest three-month period on record. Globally, land temperatures over these three months averaged 14.34°C (+1.5°C anomaly), making it the 2nd warmest such three-month window worldwide. This elevated heat reflects Somalia's long-term warming trend of +0.82°C above baseline, following on from 2025, which was the 3rd warmest full year on record at 27.69°C.
What’s driving change?
The persistent warmth across the Horn of Africa is heavily amplified by , where depleted soil moisture prevents natural cooling through evaporation and turns ambient heat into localised heat spikes. Tropical Pacific conditions are currently dominated by a moderate El Niño, detailed on our live tracker at ENSO, which alters rainfall patterns and atmospheric circulation across East Africa. In addition, has caused erratic rainfall distributions, prolonging dry periods and accelerating land degradation.
Looking ahead
Seasonal climate models indicate an 81% probability that El Niño will reach Very Strong intensity between October and December, which is likely to transition the region from acute dry conditions to severe flooding during the late-year short rains.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Somalia
Köppen BWh · AridSomalia has a arid climate (Köppen BWh: Hot desert), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. April is typically the warmest month, averaging 28.6°C, while January is the coldest at 26.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 297mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Somalia
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Somalia
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Somalia
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Somalia
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Somalia
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen BWh · AridSomalia doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 1.6°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 27× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: May (-28 mm, -35%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Somalia
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Somalia changing?
Somalia is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Somalia?
Somalia has a arid climate (Köppen BWh: Hot desert), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. April is typically the warmest month, averaging 28.6°C, while January is the coldest at 26.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 297mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Somalia come from?
Climate data for Somalia comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Somalia climate data cover?
The Somalia climate profile covers Mogadishu, Hargeisa, Bosaso, Kismayo and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Somalia
How often is the Somalia climate update refreshed?
The Somalia climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Somalia climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Somalia climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.