Somalia Climate – June 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Mogadishu, Hargeisa, Bosaso, Kismayo, and Baidoa
This month in numbers
Somalia experienced its 5th warmest June on record, with an average temperature of 28.24°C, marking an anomaly of +1.2°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. The period of April–June 2026 was the 3rd warmest on record for Somalia, with an average temperature of 28.29°C, an anomaly of +1.3°C. Globally, June 2026 ranked as the 3rd warmest June for land temperatures, and the April–June 2026 period was the 2nd warmest for global land temperatures.
What changed
The consistent warmth in Somalia over the past three months aligns with a broader trend of rising temperatures. The country's average temperature for 2025 was 27.62°C, making it the warmest year on record. This warming trend is significantly higher than the global average, with Somalia experiencing a long-term trend of +0.84°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. Somalia's 1-month anomaly for June was 0.35°C cooler than the average for the Africa group, which saw a mean anomaly of +1.58°C.
What’s driving change?
The persistent warmth in Somalia is largely influenced by the ongoing weak El Niño conditions, with the NOAA ONI 3-month anomaly for April-June 2026 at +0.98°C. El Niño typically brings wetter conditions to the Horn of Africa during the "short rains" (October-December) and has been associated with significant flooding events in the past. However, the current period has seen predominantly dry conditions across much of Somalia, particularly in areas like Togdheer, Sanaag, Sool, and Hawd, leading to water shortages and increased humanitarian needs. This dry spell has exacerbated existing drought conditions, forcing approximately 21,000 individuals to be displaced in Gaalkacyo District alone between June 18 and June 22, 2026, in search of water and pasture. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that while the immediate risk of major riverine flooding during June–September is reduced, the country should prepare for an elevated risk of extensive flooding during the October–December Deyr season due to a likely strengthening El Niño.
Looking ahead
With a 100% probability of El Niño conditions continuing through the end of 2026, Somalia faces a high likelihood of above-normal rainfall and significant riverine and flash flooding during the upcoming October–December Deyr season, particularly along the Juba and Shabelle river basins.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Somalia
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (rainfall: World Bank CCKP / CRU TS 4.08). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Somalia – Monthly Temperature – All Years
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (rainfall: World Bank CCKP / CRU TS 4.08). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Records – Somalia
Our World in Data / NOAA - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen BWh · AridSomalia doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 1.6°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 23× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly rainfall climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Apr (+13 mm, +24%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (rainfall: World Bank CCKP / CRU TS 4.08). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Rainfall & Precipitation
Rainfall & Rain Days – Totals
Headline: anomaly vs the 1961–1990 mean. Small figure: the actual value. Rank: position in the full record (1st = highest ever). Record: highest (or lowest) value on record with its year.
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Somalia
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Somalia changing?
Somalia is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Somalia come from?
Climate data for Somalia comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Somalia climate data cover?
The Somalia climate profile covers Mogadishu, Hargeisa, Bosaso, Kismayo and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Somalia
How often is the Somalia climate update refreshed?
The Somalia climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.