South Africa Climate
Top 5 Cities: Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, Pretoria, and Port Elizabeth
This month in numbers
South Africa experienced its 35th warmest April on record, with an average temperature of 17.79°C, which is 0.5°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. Globally, April 2026 was the 2nd warmest April for land temperatures on record, with an anomaly of +1.1°C. The three-month period from February to April 2026 saw an average temperature of 21.03°C, ranking as the 15th warmest such period in 86 years of records for South Africa.
What changed
The past three months (February–April 2026) in South Africa were notably warmer, with an anomaly of +1°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. This places the region at 202nd out of 234 in cross-region rankings for this period, indicating it was among the warmer regions globally. This trend aligns with the broader global picture, where global land temperatures for the same three-month period ranked as the 2nd warmest on record. South Africa's 1-month anomaly for April was 0.85°C cooler than the average for the wider Africa group, suggesting some regional variation within the continent.
What’s driving change?
The warming trend in South Africa is influenced by the broader global warming patterns. The current ENSO state is Neutral, but a strong shift towards El Niño is forecast for the coming months, with an 82% probability for May-Jul and increasing to 98% by August-October. El Niño typically brings warmer and drier conditions to Southern Africa, often leading to significant drought and food insecurity, as seen in previous strong El Niño events. South Africa has also experienced significant extreme weather events recently. From late December 2025 into January 2026, severe flooding affected large parts of Mozambique, Eswatini, northeastern South Africa, and Zimbabwe, killing over 200 people and destroying thousands of homes and vast agricultural land. This extreme rainfall was intensified by a combination of climate change and a weak La Niña event at the time. In March, parts of the Western Cape and Namakwa District experienced record-breaking maximum temperatures, with Alexander Bay reaching 44.8°C. More recently, in May 2026, South Africa declared a natural disaster due to severe flooding across six provinces, impacting informal settlements particularly hard and resulting in at least 10 deaths. For more details on extreme weather, visit Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
The strong forecast for El Niño in the coming months suggests a likelihood of warmer and drier conditions for South Africa in the weeks and months ahead, which could lead to increased drought risk.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for South Africa
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in South Africa changing?
South Africa is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for South Africa come from?
Climate data for South Africa comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the South Africa climate data cover?
The South Africa climate profile covers Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, Pretoria and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for South Africa
How often is the South Africa climate update refreshed?
The South Africa climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.