South Africa Climate – June 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, Pretoria, and Port Elizabeth
This month in numbers
South Africa experienced a June that was 0.6°C warmer than the 1961–1990 baseline, ranking as the 36th warmest June in 86 years of records. Globally, June 2026 was the 3rd warmest on record for land temperatures, with an anomaly of +1°C. The three-month period from April to June 2026 in South Africa was also warmer than average, at 14.42°C, an anomaly of +0.5°C, placing it as the 34th warmest such period on record.
What changed
The past three months (April–June 2026) in South Africa saw temperatures consistently above the historical average. While South Africa's temperature anomaly for June was +0.56°C, it ranked 181st out of 234 regions globally, indicating that many other regions experienced significantly higher temperature anomalies. For the three-month period, South Africa ranked 216th globally with an anomaly of +0.53°C. This suggests that while the country is experiencing warmer conditions, the warming trend is less pronounced compared to the global picture, particularly in regions like Europe and Central Asia which saw some of the highest anomalies.
What’s driving change?
The current weak El Niño conditions, with a Niño 3.4 SST anomaly of +0.98°C for April-June 2026, are a significant driver of the warmer and drier conditions typically experienced in Southern Africa. El Niño events are historically associated with warmer and drier conditions in the region, often leading to drought and impacting agriculture. Indeed, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño is set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather. South Africa has also experienced significant flooding in the Western and Eastern Cape provinces during May and early June 2026, with severe storms causing widespread damage and displacement.
Looking ahead
The El Niño is forecast to strengthen and persist through late 2026 and into 2027, with a 100% probability of El Niño conditions continuing through November 2026. This strong El Niño is expected to coincide with South Africa's 2026-27 summer crop season, which begins in mid-October, and could lead to below-normal rainfall and increased drought risk, although recent higher-than-usual rainfall may mitigate some of the immediate impacts.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – South Africa
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (rainfall: World Bank CCKP / CRU TS 4.08). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
South Africa – Monthly Temperature – All Years
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (rainfall: World Bank CCKP / CRU TS 4.08). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Records – South Africa
Our World in Data / NOAA - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen BSk · AridSouth Africa has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±5.9°C) and a wet/dry cycle (6× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly rainfall climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Mar (-18 mm, -25%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (rainfall: World Bank CCKP / CRU TS 4.08). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Rainfall & Precipitation
Rainfall & Rain Days – Totals
Headline: anomaly vs the 1961–1990 mean. Small figure: the actual value. Rank: position in the full record (1st = highest ever). Record: highest (or lowest) value on record with its year.
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for South Africa
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in South Africa changing?
South Africa is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for South Africa come from?
Climate data for South Africa comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the South Africa climate data cover?
The South Africa climate profile covers Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, Pretoria and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for South Africa
How often is the South Africa climate update refreshed?
The South Africa climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.