South Africa Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, Pretoria, and Port Elizabeth
Summary
South Africa experienced an unusually mild winter period, with July 2026 recording temperatures well above average to rank 10th warmest on record for the month. This capped an exceptionally warm May–July season, even as late-winter cold fronts brought disruptive mountain snow and icy conditions to eastern high ground. Ocean conditions in the Pacific remain a critical driver, with a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec, pointing towards heightened climate risks for southern Africa as warm, dry conditions build toward spring.
This month in numbers
July 2026 brought an average temperature of 11.9°C to South Africa, sitting 1.2°C above the 1961–1990 baseline and ranking 10th warmest for the month in 87 years of records. The broader May–July season was similarly elevated at 12.94°C (+1.2°C anomaly), marking the country's 7th warmest start to winter on record. Globally, land temperatures for July 2026 reached 15.8°C (+1.6°C anomaly) to rank 3rd highest ever recorded, while the global May–July period ranked 2nd warmest on record. Nationally, long-term warming in South Africa stands at +1.11°C, building on a 2025 full-year average of 18.34°C that ranked 6th warmest.
What changed
Across the three-month May–July period, South Africa sustained a persistent warmth (+1.2°C anomaly) that aligns with global heat trends, even if its single-month anomaly ran 0.55°C cooler than the broader African continent average (+1.78°C), details of which can be explored at Africa. While June recorded a notable departure of +2.0°C above average, July moderated slightly, though temperatures remained consistently above mid-century norms. This milder winter pattern follows a historically warm 2025, reflecting how Southern Hemisphere winter baselines continue to shift steadily upward alongside global land trends.
What’s driving change?
A primary driver behind the regional thermal pattern is ENSO, tracked live at ENSO, where a moderate El Niño is currently active across the equatorial Pacific with an anomaly of +0.98°C. For southern Africa, El Niño episodes historically bring drier and warmer conditions during the summer months with a 70% historical reliability, though winter impacts often manifest as complex atmospheric shifts. Broader warming is further amplified because surfaces, accelerating temperature rise across the interior plateau during winter. Recent severe winter cold fronts provided temporary sharp drops in temperature, but were insufficient to offset the overarching atmospheric warming trend.
Looking ahead
Looking into the spring and summer months, climate models project an 81% probability that El Niño will intensify to Very Strong strength in Oct-Dec, significantly increasing the likelihood of above-average temperatures and severe rainfall deficits across South Africa's agricultural heartland.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – South Africa
Köppen BSh · AridSouth Africa has a arid climate (Köppen BSh: Hot steppe), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. January is typically the warmest month, averaging 23.7°C, while July is the coldest at 11.7°C. Annual precipitation averages around 456mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – South Africa
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – South Africa
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – South Africa
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – South Africa
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – South Africa
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen BSk · AridSouth Africa has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±5.9°C) and a wet/dry cycle (7× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Mar (-13 mm, -20%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Data Sources
Data Sources for South Africa
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in South Africa changing?
South Africa is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in South Africa?
South Africa has a arid climate (Köppen BSh: Hot steppe), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. January is typically the warmest month, averaging 23.7°C, while July is the coldest at 11.7°C. Annual precipitation averages around 456mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for South Africa come from?
Climate data for South Africa comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the South Africa climate data cover?
The South Africa climate profile covers Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, Pretoria and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for South Africa
How often is the South Africa climate update refreshed?
The South Africa climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the South Africa climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the South Africa climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.