North America Climate – May 2026 Update
Top 5 Countries: United States, Canada, Mexico, Cuba, and Guatemala
This is a 4byo aggregate. NOAA does not publish a standalone continental land series for North America, so we average country anomalies in our coverage. See methodology.
This month in numbers
North America experienced a significantly warmer May 2026, with temperatures averaging +1.35°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. The warming trend extends to the 3-month anomaly at +1.39°C and the 12-month rolling anomaly at +1.68°C. Globally, May 2026 was the second-warmest May on record.
Hottest & coolest countries
Mexico climate page was the warmest country in North America this month, with an anomaly of +1.81°C. Close behind were Jamaica climate page at +1.74°C and Canada climate page at +1.70°C. Costa Rica climate page recorded the coolest anomaly, though still significantly warmer than average at +0.62°C.
What's driving change?
The current climate pattern is heavily influenced by a rapidly developing El Niño. Although the NOAA ONI for March-May 2026 indicated neutral conditions with an anomaly of +0.48°C, weekly sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region reached +1.3°C by June 3, 2026. Forecasts indicate an 82% probability of El Niño emerging in May-July 2026, rising to 98% by August-October 2026, suggesting a strong El Niño event is likely to impact global weather patterns for the remainder of the year. This developing ENSO ENSO tracker event is contributing to widespread heat and drought conditions across parts of North America. The United States, in particular, has experienced its sixth driest August 2025 to May 2026 period on record, exacerbated by record-setting high temperatures. Wildfire activity has been significantly above average in the US, with over 29,000 wildfires burning more than 2.3 million acres by early June, double the 10-year average. Drought conditions worsened across the western US due to warmer-than-normal temperatures, with states like Oregon and Montana facing severe drought and increased wildfire risks. Flash floods also impacted areas like San Antonio, Texas, in early May.
Looking ahead
Above-average temperatures are expected to persist across much of North America through the summer, with the most significant departures likely in July and August.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
Temperature – Average
The 4byo Climate Helix – North America
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of 6 country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS).
North America – Monthly Temperature – All Years
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of 6 country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS).
Records – North America
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of 6 country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS).
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen Cfb · TemperateNorth America has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±6.4°C) and a wet/dry cycle (5× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly rainfall climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Nov (+31 mm, +27%).
4byo continent aggregate · OWID/CRU TS country monthly temperatures & rainfall. Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Climate Systems
Loading ENSO tracker…
Member countries (6)
These are the country snapshots aggregated into the North America series.
Hottest & Coolest in North America this Month
1-month anomaly vs 1961–1990 across the 6 members we cover. Click a name to open its profile.
Warmest
- 1.🇲🇽Mexico+1.81°C
- 2.🇯🇲Jamaica+1.74°C
- 3.🇨🇦Canada+1.70°C
- 4.🇳🇮Nicaragua+1.21°C
- 5.🇺🇸United States+1.00°C
Coolest
- 1.🇨🇷Costa Rica+0.62°C
- 2.🇺🇸United States+1.00°C
- 3.🇳🇮Nicaragua+1.21°C
- 4.🇨🇦Canada+1.70°C
- 5.🇯🇲Jamaica+1.74°C
Data Sources
- 4byo aggregate (NOAA does not publish a standalone continental land series for this region)
- Two-baseline model — comparison baseline 1961–1990; native baseline 1961-1990. Methodology →
Data Sources
Data Sources for North America
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in North America changing?
North America is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for North America come from?
Climate data for North America comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the North America climate data cover?
The North America climate profile covers United States, Canada, Mexico, Cuba and surrounding areas. Aggregated from country snapshots - NOAA does not publish a NA continental series
How often is the North America climate update refreshed?
The North America climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.