North America Climate – March 2026 Update
Top 5 Countries: United States, Canada, Mexico, Cuba, and Guatemala
This is a 4BYO aggregate. NOAA does not publish a standalone continental land series for North America, so we average country anomalies in our coverage. See methodology.
This month in numbers
North America experienced a significantly warm April 2026, with a 1-month temperature anomaly of +1.12°C compared to the 1961–1990 average. The warming trend is even more pronounced over longer periods, with the 3-month anomaly at +1.42°C and the 12-month rolling anomaly reaching +1.74°C. This places North America among the regions experiencing substantial warming, with 10 of the top 10 warmest 1-month anomalies globally being US states, and 9 of the top 10 warmest 3-month anomalies also being US states.
Hottest & coolest countries
The United States (climate page) led the warming across North America this month with a 1-month anomaly of +1.90°C, followed by Canada (climate page) at +1.51°C and Mexico (climate page) at +1.29°C. In contrast, Costa Rica (climate page) experienced the coolest anomaly at +0.40°C, though still above the long-term average.
What's driving change?
The current ENSO state is Neutral, with an anomaly of +0.11°C for February-April 2026. However, the forecast indicates a likely transition to El Niño conditions, with a 61% probability for May-July and a 79% probability for June-August. This shift in ENSO (ENSO tracker) is expected to influence upcoming weather patterns. April saw a significant tornado outbreak sequence across the central and southern United States, with 99 confirmed tornadoes, including an EF4 tornado in Oklahoma. Mexico also experienced extreme weather, including storms, hail, and record heat, with temperatures exceeding 35°C in Mexico City. Meanwhile, Canada's Prairies experienced unusually cold, winter-like conditions and heavy snowfall in April, a stark contrast to the warmth elsewhere in the continent. These contrasting conditions highlight the influence of , which can lead to stalled weather systems and regional temperature extremes.
Looking ahead
Seasonal outlooks suggest a warming trend for North America in the coming months, particularly as El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
Temperature – Average
North America – Monthly Temperature – All Years
Each line represents one year of monthly temperature in °C.
4BYO continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of 6 country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS).
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsHow spring and autumn have shifted in North America. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (15.9°C, from 1941–1970); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 12.8°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Jan (+1.9°C).
4BYO continent aggregate · OWID/CRU TS country monthly temperatures.
Member countries (6)
These are the country snapshots aggregated into the North America series.
Hottest & Coolest in North America this Month
1-month anomaly vs 1961–1990 across the 6 members we cover. Click a name to open its profile.
Warmest
- 1.🇺🇸United States+1.90°C
- 2.🇨🇦Canada+1.51°C
- 3.🇲🇽Mexico+1.29°C
- 4.🇯🇲Jamaica+1.11°C
- 5.🇳🇮Nicaragua+0.52°C
Coolest
- 1.🇨🇷Costa Rica+0.40°C
- 2.🇳🇮Nicaragua+0.52°C
- 3.🇯🇲Jamaica+1.11°C
- 4.🇲🇽Mexico+1.29°C
- 5.🇨🇦Canada+1.51°C
Data Sources
- 4BYO aggregate (NOAA does not publish a standalone continental land series for this region)
- Two-baseline model — comparison baseline 1961–1990; native baseline 1961-1990. Methodology →
Data Sources
Data Sources for North America
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in North America changing?
North America is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for North America come from?
Climate data for North America comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the North America climate data cover?
The North America climate profile covers United States, Canada, Mexico, Cuba and surrounding areas. Aggregated from country snapshots - NOAA does not publish a NA continental series
How often is the North America climate update refreshed?
The North America climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.