Jamaica Climate
Top 5 Cities: Kingston, Montego Bay, Spanish Town, Portmore, and Mandeville
This month in numbers
Jamaica experienced its 8th warmest April on record, with an average temperature of 25.82°C, which is 1.1°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. The period of February to April 2026 ranked as the 3rd warmest on record for Jamaica, with an anomaly of +1.5°C compared to the baseline. Globally, April 2026 was the 2nd warmest April on record for land temperatures, with the February–April 2026 period also ranking as the 2nd warmest globally for land temperatures.
What changed
Jamaica's recent warmth is part of a broader trend, with the country's average temperature for the last full year (2025) being the 2nd warmest on record. The island has seen a long-term warming trend of +1.38°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. While Jamaica's April anomaly of +1.11°C placed it 162nd out of 234 regions globally for the month, the North America group, to which Jamaica belongs, also experienced warmer-than-average conditions, with a 1-month anomaly of +1.12°C.
What’s driving change?
The warming trend in Jamaica is influenced by global climate patterns, including the evolving ENSO state. While the current ENSO state is Neutral, there is a strong forecast for an El Niño event to develop in the coming months, with an 82% probability for May-Jul and increasing to 98% for Aug-Oct. Historically, El Niño events are associated with drier conditions and increased temperatures across parts of the Caribbean region, which can elevate the risk of drought and heat-related impacts. The Meteorological Service of Jamaica has noted a shift towards warmer and drier conditions in several areas of the country recently. Additionally, the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) indicated that continued, unusual warmth in the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean implies the occurrence of severe weather activity, including potential for flooding and heat discomfort. Jamaica is still recovering from the catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall in October 2025 as the first Category 5 hurricane on record to hit the island, causing significant damage and loss of life.
Looking ahead
The Meteorological Service of Jamaica is actively monitoring the developing El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to bring reduced rainfall activity during the summer period and into the primary rainfall season peaking in October, potentially leading to challenges for water resources and agriculture.
Sources:
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Jamaica
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Jamaica changing?
Jamaica is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Jamaica come from?
Climate data for Jamaica comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Jamaica climate data cover?
The Jamaica climate profile covers Kingston, Montego Bay, Spanish Town, Portmore and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Jamaica
How often is the Jamaica climate update refreshed?
The Jamaica climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.