Jamaica Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Kingston, Montego Bay, Spanish Town, Portmore, and Mandeville
Summary
Jamaica experienced its hottest month in 87 years of record-keeping in July 2026, with average temperatures reaching an unprecedented 28.66°C. The heat brought extended warm spells across the island as daytime maximums reached 36°C in Kingston and Montego Bay, worsening drought conditions and triggering parish water restrictions. This record month crowns the hottest May to July period on record, amplified by a moderate El Niño that is forecast to peak at Very Strong between September and November, with sweltering conditions expected to linger through late summer and autumn.
This month in numbers
July 2026 set a historic benchmark across Jamaica with an average temperature of 28.66°C, standing 2.1°C above the 1961 to 1990 baseline. This was the highest average temperature recorded in 87 years of data, ranking 1st among all months on record. The three-month period from May to July 2026 was similarly unprecedented, averaging 27.81°C with a +1.8°C anomaly to rank 1st out of 87 years. Across the broader North America regional group at North America, Jamaica registered the largest single-month anomaly, exceeding the group average by 0.42°C, while global land temperatures recorded their 3rd warmest July on record at +1.6°C above average.
What changed
The record heat in July represents an acceleration of elevated temperatures across early 2026. After a moderate start to the year in February (+0.6°C anomaly) and March (+0.9°C anomaly), temperatures rose rapidly through May (+1.8°C) and June (+1.6°C), pushing the seasonal May to July average to a record-breaking 27.81°C. This continues a prolonged multi-year pattern for the island, where long-term warming has reached +1.38°C above the baseline. The previous complete year, 2025, averaged 26.64°C to rank as the 3rd warmest year in 86 years of tracking, closely following the record highs set in 2023 (26.7°C) and 2024 (26.69°C).
What’s driving change?
The primary driver behind Jamaica's severe thermal spike is the active tropical ocean pattern known as ENSO, tracked on our live tracker at ENSO. A moderate El Niño is currently established in the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface anomalies intensifying and forecast with a 93% probability to peak at Very Strong between September and November. Historically, El Niño brings suppressed rainfall and reduced cloud cover to the Caribbean, allowing solar radiation to bake the island and creating drier, hotter conditions. Local heating is further exacerbated because , causing Jamaica's land surface to heat up rapidly under cloudless tropical skies and driving demand on regional power grids.
Looking ahead
Seasonal forecasts from regional meteorological services indicate that above-normal temperatures and dry conditions are highly likely to persist across Jamaica over the next one to three months as El Niño reaches its peak intensity.
Sources:
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Jamaica
Köppen Af · TropicalJamaica has a tropical climate (Köppen Af: Tropical rainforest), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 28.0°C, while February is the coldest at 24.8°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1698mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Jamaica
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Jamaica
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Jamaica
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Jamaica
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Jamaica
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Af · TropicalJamaica doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 3.2°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 4× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Jun (-47 mm, -24%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Jamaica
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Jamaica changing?
Jamaica is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Jamaica?
Jamaica has a tropical climate (Köppen Af: Tropical rainforest), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 28.0°C, while February is the coldest at 24.8°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1698mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Jamaica come from?
Climate data for Jamaica comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Jamaica climate data cover?
The Jamaica climate profile covers Kingston, Montego Bay, Spanish Town, Portmore and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Jamaica
How often is the Jamaica climate update refreshed?
The Jamaica climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Jamaica climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Jamaica climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.