Jamaica Climate – June 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Kingston, Montego Bay, Spanish Town, Portmore, and Mandeville
This month in numbers
Jamaica experienced its 3rd warmest June on record in 2026, with an average temperature of 27.7°C, marking an anomaly of +1.7°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. This follows a trend of elevated temperatures, as the April–June 2026 period also ranked as the 4th warmest on record, with an average of 26.87°C and an anomaly of +1.5°C. Globally, June 2026 was the 3rd warmest June for land temperatures, and the April–June period was the 2nd warmest on record for global land temperatures.
What changed
Jamaica's consistently warm temperatures this past quarter stand out, with the country's 1-month anomaly for June being 0.57°C warmer than the North America group average, making it the warmest in its regional group. The island is currently experiencing a weak El Niño, with the NOAA ONI 3-month anomaly for April-June 2026 at +0.98°C. This El Niño is forecast to persist through the end of 2026, with a 100% probability for the upcoming seasons.
What’s driving change?
The primary driver for Jamaica's warmer and drier conditions is the ongoing El Niño phenomenon, which typically leads to reduced rainfall and increased temperatures across the Caribbean. This pattern is expected to intensify heat and prolong drought in parts of the region. Additionally, intrusions of dusty Saharan air are likely to be frequent, further exacerbating humid heat and deteriorating air quality. The National Water Commission (NWC) and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica have both highlighted the need for preparedness due to these evolving conditions and the lessons learned from Hurricane Melissa in 2025, which caused significant damage.
Looking ahead
The strengthening El Niño conditions are expected to bring increasingly intense humid heat into the peak of the heat season in September, culminating in recurrent heatwaves, especially in the far north of the Caribbean.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Jamaica
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (rainfall: World Bank CCKP / CRU TS 4.08). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Jamaica – Monthly Temperature – All Years
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (rainfall: World Bank CCKP / CRU TS 4.08). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Records – Jamaica
Our World in Data / NOAA - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Af · TropicalJamaica doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 3.2°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 5× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly rainfall climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Nov (+129 mm, +86%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (rainfall: World Bank CCKP / CRU TS 4.08). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Rainfall & Precipitation
Rainfall & Rain Days – Totals
Headline: anomaly vs the 1961–1990 mean. Small figure: the actual value. Rank: position in the full record (1st = highest ever). Record: highest (or lowest) value on record with its year.
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Jamaica
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Jamaica changing?
Jamaica is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Jamaica come from?
Climate data for Jamaica comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Jamaica climate data cover?
The Jamaica climate profile covers Kingston, Montego Bay, Spanish Town, Portmore and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Jamaica
How often is the Jamaica climate update refreshed?
The Jamaica climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.