United States Climate – July 2026 Update
Key States: California, Texas, Florida, New York, and Alaska
Summary
The United States experienced an exceptionally warm start to summer 2026, culminating in its 4th warmest April–June period in 77 years of recorded climate data. Average nationwide temperatures during the month reached 21.46°C, sitting 1.2°C above the 1961–1990 baseline and ranking as the 13th warmest June on record. Widespread summer heat and persistent high-pressure systems have heightened wildfire activity across western regions, while global land temperatures simultaneously logged their 2nd warmest May–July period on record. Compounding the overarching warming trend, a moderate El Niño in the tropical Pacific is intensifying and forecast to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec, with elevated heat and shifting precipitation patterns expected to endure through late summer and into autumn.
This month in numbers
June 2026 delivered an average temperature of 21.46°C across the United States, placing it 1.2°C above the 1961–1990 historical baseline as the 13th warmest on record in 77 years of data. Daytime maximum temperatures averaged 28.32°C, which sat 0.9°C above normal. The broader seasonal picture was even more striking, as the three-month period from April through June logged an average temperature of 16.87°C. That anomaly of +1.3°C makes it the 4th warmest April–June on record nationwide. Total precipitation for the month stood at 82.04 mm, which was 8.9 mm above the long-term average and ranked as the 24th wettest on record.
What changed
The three-month trend confirms sustained thermal pressure across North America, with the April–June average sitting 1.3°C above baseline. This national warming aligns with global land trends, where the May–July period ranked as the 2nd warmest on record worldwide at 1.5°C above baseline. Within the continent context tracked at North America, the United States ran slightly cooler than the broader North American regional average anomaly of +1.72°C. However, long-term regional data highlights clear localized extremes: while the contiguous United States ranks 59th globally for its 12-month temperature anomaly, six individual American states rank within the top ten warmest areas on Earth over the past year.
What’s driving change?
The primary atmospheric drivers behind recent conditions include persistent and that trapped hot air masses across the interior West and southern states. On a global scale, the climate is being shaped by ENSO dynamics in the equatorial Pacific, where a moderate El Niño with an anomaly of +0.98°C is active, as detailed on our tracker at ENSO. Locally, hot and dry conditions have accelerated wildfire risks across western forests. All of the United States's 4 wildfires this year happened in the past month, which are tracked live on our map at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
Climate models indicate an 81% probability that the current El Niño will reach Very Strong intensity between October and December 2026, maintaining a high likelihood of above-average temperatures across much of the nation through autumn and into the winter months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – USUnited States
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance — US states & climate regions (tavg, pcp), plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – USUnited States
Köppen Cfa · TemperateUnited States has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfa: Humid subtropical), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 24.2°C, while January is the coldest at 0.4°C. Annual precipitation averages around 795mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – USUnited States
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Heatwave Days – USUnited States
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – USUnited States
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Monthly Temperature – USUnited States
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Records – USUnited States
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Dfa · ContinentalHow spring and autumn have shifted in United States. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (11.0°C, from 1950–1979); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 24.5°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Mar (+2.1°C).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for USUnited States
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Contiguous-US national temperature and precipitation series.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in United States changing?
United States is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in United States?
United States has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfa: Humid subtropical), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 24.2°C, while January is the coldest at 0.4°C. Annual precipitation averages around 795mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for United States come from?
Climate data for United States comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the United States climate data cover?
The United States climate profile covers California, Texas, Florida, New York and surrounding areas. The world's second-largest emitter and energy transition leader
How often is the United States climate update refreshed?
The United States climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the United States climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the United States climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.