Nicaragua Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Managua, León, Masaya, Matagalpa, and Chinandega
Summary
Nicaragua experienced its hottest July in 87 years of records as temperature anomalies surged, capping an unprecedented three-month period that also broke all-time regional records. Fueled by a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec, extreme heat across the Central American Dry Corridor has heightened dry-spell pressures and agricultural stress, with unseasonably warm conditions expected to persist over the coming months.
This month in numbers
The country recorded an average temperature of 26.76°C, standing 1.6°C above the 1961-1990 baseline and ranking 1st out of 87 years on record for the month. The May-July 2026 season was similarly unprecedented, averaging 27.29°C to mark the warmest three-month stretch on record with an identical +1.6°C anomaly. On a global level, land temperatures for the month reached 15.8°C (+1.6°C anomaly), placing 3rd overall, while the global May-July average of 14.34°C (+1.5°C anomaly) ranked 2nd warmest.
What changed
The recent surge in heat follows a sustained period of rising temperatures, with 2025 standing as Nicaragua's 3rd warmest year on record at 25.97°C against a long-term regional warming trend of +0.88°C. Within the regional North America group, Nicaragua's July temperature anomaly placed it 4th out of 6 member territories, trailing Jamaica, Canada and Mexico. Globally, Nicaragua ranked 107th of 232 monitored regions for its 1-month temperature anomaly and 96th for the 3-month May-July period (+1.63°C anomaly), reflecting a widespread heat pattern across Central America.
What’s driving change?
The elevated temperatures and expanding dry conditions across the region are driven by ENSO dynamics and broader trends. Tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupling currently indicates a moderate El Niño state, tracked live at ENSO, with a Relative Niño Index anomaly of +0.98°C. Historically, El Niño triggers across Central America, reducing rainy season precipitation and exacerbating agricultural drought across the Central American Dry Corridor.
Looking ahead
Climate models from the NOAA Climate Prediction Centre indicate a 100% probability of El Niño persisting through the August-to-December period, with an 81% likelihood of reaching Very Strong intensity, portending continued above-average heat and dry-spell stress over the next 1-3 months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Nicaragua
Köppen Am · TropicalNicaragua has a tropical climate (Köppen Am: Tropical monsoon), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. May is typically the warmest month, averaging 27.2°C, while January is the coldest at 24.6°C. Annual precipitation averages around 2006mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Nicaragua
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Nicaragua
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Nicaragua
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Nicaragua
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Nicaragua
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Am · TropicalNicaragua doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 2.7°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 9× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Jul (-90 mm, -25%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Nicaragua
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Nicaragua changing?
Nicaragua is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Nicaragua?
Nicaragua has a tropical climate (Köppen Am: Tropical monsoon), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. May is typically the warmest month, averaging 27.2°C, while January is the coldest at 24.6°C. Annual precipitation averages around 2006mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Nicaragua come from?
Climate data for Nicaragua comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Nicaragua climate data cover?
The Nicaragua climate profile covers Managua, León, Masaya, Matagalpa and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Nicaragua
How often is the Nicaragua climate update refreshed?
The Nicaragua climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Nicaragua climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Nicaragua climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.