Mexico Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey, Puebla, and Tijuana
Summary
Mexico experienced its 4th warmest July on record as summer heat intensified across the nation, driven in part by a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec. While offshore tropical systems like Category 5 Hurricane Genevieve brought rough seas to the Pacific coast, land areas endured mid-summer heat dome conditions and localised rain deficits, with elevated temperatures expected to persist over the coming months.
This month in numbers
July 2026 averaged 25.59°C across Mexico, marking an anomaly of +1.7°C above the 1961-1990 baseline and ranking as the 4th warmest July in 87 years of records. This placed the country alongside a broader global signal, where global land temperatures reached their 3rd warmest July on record at 15.8°C (+1.6°C anomaly). Over the broader May to July period, Mexico recorded a mean temperature of 25.22°C (+1.5°C anomaly), its 7th warmest such window on record, while global land temperatures for the same three months ranked 2nd highest ever recorded.
What changed
The warm July reinforces a persistent multi-year heating trend across the region, where annual temperatures have risen by +1.43°C compared to the 1961-1990 average. Full-year data shows 2025 was Mexico's 3rd warmest year on record at 21.69°C, trailing only 2024 and 2023. Across the North America continental group, Mexico's monthly temperature anomaly mirrored the wider regional average of +1.72°C, placing it behind Jamaica and Canada during a month of widespread warmth across the hemisphere.
What’s driving change?
A combination of large-scale tropical drivers and local surface feedback mechanisms is powering Mexico's elevated temperatures. Equatorial Pacific conditions are currently defined by a moderate El Niño, tracked on our live monitor at ENSO, which historically favours warmer and drier summer conditions across Mexico with around 65% historical skill. This atmospheric setup contributed to stalling over North America, while reduced evaporative cooling across central plateau regions. Additionally, because surfaces, inland Mexican states experienced accelerated heating relative to adjacent coastal waters.
Looking ahead
Seasonal model forecasts indicate a 100% probability of El Niño conditions continuing through autumn, with the event holding an 81% probability of intensifying to Very Strong strength in Oct-Dec, pointing towards persistent above-average warmth across Mexico over the coming months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Mexico
Köppen Cwa · TemperateMexico has a temperate climate (Köppen Cwa: Humid subtropical (dry winter)), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. June is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.6°C, while January is the coldest at 15.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 778mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Mexico
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Mexico
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Mexico
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Mexico
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Mexico
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen Cwa · TemperateMexico has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±4.9°C) and a wet/dry cycle (7× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Sep (+21 mm, +18%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
Explore
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Mexico
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Mexico changing?
Mexico is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Mexico?
Mexico has a temperate climate (Köppen Cwa: Humid subtropical (dry winter)), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. June is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.6°C, while January is the coldest at 15.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 778mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Mexico come from?
Climate data for Mexico comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Mexico climate data cover?
The Mexico climate profile covers Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey, Puebla and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Mexico
How often is the Mexico climate update refreshed?
The Mexico climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Mexico climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Mexico climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.