Mexico Climate
Top 5 Cities: Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey, Puebla, and Tijuana
This month in numbers
Mexico experienced its warmest February to April on record, with temperatures averaging 20.41°C, an anomaly of +2.1°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. This marks the 1st warmest such period in 86 years of records. April 2026 itself was the 11th warmest April on record, with an average temperature of 22.33°C, which is +1.3°C above the baseline. Globally, April 2026 was the 2nd warmest April for land temperatures, and the February–April period ranked as the 2nd warmest on record globally for land temperatures.
What changed
The past three months have seen Mexico experiencing unprecedented warmth, setting a new record for the February–April period. This trend is significantly warmer than the national long-term average, which shows a warming of +1.39°C since the 1961–1990 baseline. Mexico's April anomaly of +1.29°C places it 152nd out of 234 regions globally for the latest month's temperature anomaly. The country is also experiencing a notable concentration of extreme weather events, with one wildfire and one drought event active in the past month, each representing 100% of the annual total for their respective types, indicating an unusually active period for these events.
What’s driving change?
The current warming trend in Mexico is influenced by the ongoing Neutral ENSO state, with a weekly Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly of +0.9°C. While currently neutral, the NOAA CPC forecast indicates a 61% probability of El Niño developing in May–July 2026, increasing to 79% in June–August 2026 and 87% in July–September 2026. El Niño typically brings warmer and drier conditions to Mexico and Central America during the rainy season, increasing drought risk. Mexico is currently grappling with widespread drought conditions, with approximately 6% of the country under drought and an additional 4% abnormally dry as of April 2026. This is a significant improvement from earlier in the year, as Mexico started 2026 with its lowest drought levels in six years. However, officials have warned that the 2026 wildfire season is intensifying, with over 2,565 forest fires affecting more than 132,500 hectares by mid-April. This is an unusual concentration of wildfire activity for the region and season, with conditions expected to worsen due to warmer temperatures, lower humidity, and strong winds. You can track these developments at Extreme Weather tracker and the evolving ENSO situation at ENSO tracker.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Mexico
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Mexico changing?
Mexico is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Mexico come from?
Climate data for Mexico comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Mexico climate data cover?
The Mexico climate profile covers Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey, Puebla and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Mexico
How often is the Mexico climate update refreshed?
The Mexico climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.