Mexico Climate
Top 5 Cities: Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey, Puebla, and Tijuana
This month in numbers
Mexico experienced its warmest February to April on record, with an average temperature of 20.41°C, an anomaly of +2.1°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. This marks the 1st warmest such period in 86 years of records. April 2026 alone saw an average temperature of 22.33°C, ranking as the 11th warmest April on record with an anomaly of +1.3°C. Globally, April 2026 was the 2nd warmest April for land temperatures, with an anomaly of +1.1°C.
What changed
This record-breaking warmth for Mexico over the past three months (February-April) stands out, especially when compared to the global picture, which also saw the 3-month global land temperature ranking as the 2nd warmest on record. Mexico's 1-month anomaly for April was 0.17°C warmer than the North America group average. The country has also been grappling with drought conditions, with approximately 3% of Mexico under active drought in May 2026, and an additional 9% classified as abnormally dry. This follows a period where drought alerts were issued across northern Mexico in March 2026, warning of water shortages affecting agriculture and urban supply. Mexico City, in particular, is facing a severe water crisis due to prolonged drought, with its critical Cutzamala water system at a historic low of 39% capacity in May 2026.
What’s driving change?
The significant warming trend in Mexico is being driven by several factors, including the broader pattern of . The current ENSO state is Neutral, but the forecast indicates a strong likelihood of El Niño developing in the coming months, with an 82% chance for May-July and a 96% chance for July-September. El Niño typically brings warmer and drier conditions to Mexico and Central America, increasing drought risk during the rainy season. This could exacerbate the existing drought conditions, which have seen an unusual concentration of events, with two wildfires and one drought event representing 100% of the past 12-month totals for these types of events in the region. You can track these and other extreme weather events at Extreme Weather tracker. Mexico experienced record-breaking heat in March 2026, with Mexicali and Hermosillo setting new March temperature records.
Looking ahead
The strong forecast for El Niño in the coming months suggests a heightened risk of warmer and drier conditions for Mexico, potentially intensifying drought and water scarcity issues. You can monitor the evolving ENSO situation at ENSO tracker.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Mexico
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Mexico changing?
Mexico is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Mexico come from?
Climate data for Mexico comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Mexico climate data cover?
The Mexico climate profile covers Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey, Puebla and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Mexico
How often is the Mexico climate update refreshed?
The Mexico climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.