Canada Climate – June 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, and Ottawa
This month in numbers
Canada experienced its 13th warmest June on record, with an average temperature of 10.43°C, marking an anomaly of +1.3°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. Globally, June 2026 was the 3rd warmest on record for land temperatures, with an anomaly of +1°C. The three-month period from April to June 2026 also ranked as the 10th warmest on record for Canada, with an average temperature of 3.11°C, a +1.5°C anomaly.
What changed
Canada's recent warmth is part of a broader trend, with the country ranking 20th globally for its 12-month rolling temperature anomaly of +2.66°C. The past year, 2025, was the 2nd warmest on record for Canada, with an average temperature of -1.75°C. This sustained warmth is significantly higher than the long-term trend of +1.69°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline.
What’s driving change?
The current climate patterns are heavily influenced by a weak El Niño, which has been active since April-June 2026 with an anomaly of +0.98°C. Forecasts indicate that El Niño is expected to strengthen significantly, potentially reaching historic intensity by the autumn of 2026 and persisting through the end of the year. This El Niño phase typically brings warmer and drier conditions to Western Canada and around the Great Lakes, with milder winters and reduced snowpack. For Eastern Canada, El Niño generally leads to milder-than-average winters.
Canada has also seen a significant concentration of wildfires recently, with 20 wildfire events logged between June 25 and July 10, 2026, representing 100% of the annual total for the past 12 months. This is an unusual concentration of activity. While the 2026 wildfire season started slower than the record-breaking years of 2023 and 2025, officials are warning that fire danger is expected to increase through July and August, particularly in British Columbia, the Northwest Territories, and around Hudson Bay, due to warmer and drier-than-normal forecasts. You can track active extreme weather events at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
With a strong El Niño forecast to continue through the end of 2026, Canada can anticipate a higher chance of warmer temperatures and altered precipitation patterns in the coming months, with a potential for a new global record temperature in 2027.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Canada
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (rainfall: World Bank CCKP / CRU TS 4.08). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Canada – Monthly Temperature – All Years
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (rainfall: World Bank CCKP / CRU TS 4.08). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Records – Canada
Our World in Data / NOAA - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Dfc · ContinentalHow spring and autumn have shifted in Canada. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (-4.8°C, from 1940–1969); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 35.9°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Jan (+4.2°C).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (rainfall: World Bank CCKP / CRU TS 4.08). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Rainfall & Precipitation
Rainfall & Rain Days – Totals
Headline: anomaly vs the 1961–1990 mean. Small figure: the actual value. Rank: position in the full record (1st = highest ever). Record: highest (or lowest) value on record with its year.
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Canada
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Canada changing?
Canada is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Canada come from?
Climate data for Canada comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Canada climate data cover?
The Canada climate profile covers Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Canada
How often is the Canada climate update refreshed?
The Canada climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.