Canada Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, and Ottawa
Summary
Canada experienced exceptional heat and severe fire weather through mid-summer, recording its 4th warmest July on record while prolonged dry conditions triggered a surge in blazes across northern and central provinces. At the same time, the tropical Pacific is experiencing a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec. The intense summer warmth sits alongside a broader multi-month period of high temperatures across North America, with elevated heat and dry conditions expected to persist into late summer.
This month in numbers
Canada recorded an average temperature of 14.88°C in July 2026, which is 1.9°C above the 1961-1990 baseline and ranks as the 4th warmest on record for the month across 87 years of measurements. The broader May-to-July season averaged 10.02°C, standing 2.0°C above baseline to rank as the 5th warmest on record for that three-month period. This sustained heat builds on Canada's long-term warming trend of +1.80°C since 1961, coming after a 2025 full-year average of -2.55°C, which was the 6th warmest calendar year on record.
What changed
The summer heat in Canada reflects a broader international pattern of persistent warmth. On a global scale, land temperatures reached 15.8°C during the month (+1.6°C anomaly), making it the 3rd warmest July on record, while the three-month May-to-July global land average ranked 2nd warmest (+1.5°C anomaly). Within the North America tracking group on North America, Canada recorded the 2nd highest monthly temperature anomaly behind Jamaica, exceeding the continental group average anomaly of +1.72°C.
What’s driving change?
in northern regions is heavily influenced by , where retreating ice and snow cover accelerate heat absorption. Stalled atmospheric pressure systems brought over central parts of the continent, driving up temperatures and drying out vegetation, which further amplified local heat via . In terms of extreme weather, all of Canada's 1 wildfire cluster tracked on our live map at Extreme Weather tracker occurred over the past month as hot conditions accelerated fire spread. On a broader atmospheric level, a moderate El Niño is currently active in the tropical Pacific, as tracked at ENSO. While historical teleconnections between ENSO and North American climate show a modest ~55% consistency in western areas, El Niño events generally tilt winter weather toward milder and drier conditions across western and southern Canada.
Looking ahead
Seasonal forecasts indicate that above-average temperatures and elevated fire weather risks are likely to persist across much of Canada through late summer and early autumn, while the ongoing El Niño has an 81% probability of reaching Very Strong intensity in Oct-Dec.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Canada
Köppen Dfc · ContinentalCanada has a continental climate (Köppen Dfc: Subarctic), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 14.3°C, while February is the coldest at -19.9°C. Annual precipitation averages around 508mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Canada
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Canada
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Canada
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Canada
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Canada
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Dfc · ContinentalHow spring and autumn have shifted in Canada. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (-4.8°C, from 1940–1969); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 35.9°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Jan (+4.2°C).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Canada
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Canada changing?
Canada is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Canada?
Canada has a continental climate (Köppen Dfc: Subarctic), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 14.3°C, while February is the coldest at -19.9°C. Annual precipitation averages around 508mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Canada come from?
Climate data for Canada comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Canada climate data cover?
The Canada climate profile covers Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Canada
How often is the Canada climate update refreshed?
The Canada climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Canada climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Canada climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.