US Northeast Climate – May 2026 Update
Top States: New York, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Maryland
This month in numbers
The US Northeast experienced a slightly cooler-than-average May, with a temperature anomaly of -0.10°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. This contrasts with the region's warmer trends over longer periods, as the 3-month anomaly stands at +1.67°C and the 12-month rolling anomaly at +0.88°C. Globally, the latest 1-month rankings show a striking concentration of warmth in other regions, with 10 of the top 10 warmest anomalies being countries outside the US Northeast.
Hottest & coolest US states
Within the US Northeast, May brought varied temperature experiences to individual states. Rhode Island US Rhode Island was the warmest, registering an anomaly of +1.24°C. Following closely were New Jersey US New Jersey at +1.00°C and Delaware US Delaware at +0.95°C. In contrast, Pennsylvania US Pennsylvania was notably cooler, with an anomaly of -0.52°C, making it the coolest state in the region for the month.
What's driving change?
The current climate pattern is significantly influenced by a rapidly strengthening El Niño, with the NOAA ONI (MAM 2026) indicating a Neutral state at +0.48°C, but forecasts show a 97-100% probability of El Niño for the coming months ENSO. This developing El Niño is expected to bring warmer-than-average conditions to the Northeast during winter. In March, the US Northeast experienced flip-flopping temperatures, with a major multi-hazard storm bringing crippling ice to the region, and later, unusually warm early spring temperatures were made at least twice as likely by human-caused climate change. The broader trend of also contributes to regional temperature shifts.
Looking ahead
The strong El Niño forecast for the coming months suggests a milder-than-average winter for the US Northeast, potentially leading to reduced heating demand.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – USA
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance — US states & climate regions (tavg, pcp). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) or 1991–2020 (rainfall). See methodology.
Hottest & Coolest in US Northeast this Month
1-month anomaly vs 1961–1990 across the 11 members we cover. Click a name to open its profile.
Warmest
- 1.🇺🇸Rhode Island+1.24°C
- 2.🇺🇸New Jersey+1.00°C
- 3.🇺🇸Delaware+0.95°C
- 4.🇺🇸Massachusetts+0.80°C
- 5.🇺🇸Connecticut+0.44°C
Coolest
- 1.🇺🇸Pennsylvania-0.52°C
- 2.🇺🇸Vermont-0.44°C
- 3.🇺🇸New York-0.37°C
- 4.🇺🇸Maine+0.07°C
- 5.🇺🇸New Hampshire+0.08°C
Member States
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – US Northeast
NOAA Climate at a Glance — regional tavg / pcp (monthly absolutes).
US Northeast – Monthly Temperature – All Years
NOAA Climate at a Glance — regional tavg / pcp (monthly absolutes).
Records – US Northeast
NOAA Climate at a Glance — regional tavg / pcp (monthly absolutes).
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsHow spring and autumn have shifted in US Northeast. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (7.5°C, from 1950–1979); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 26.4°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Feb (+3.0°C).
NOAA Climate at a Glance — regional tavg. Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Rainfall & Rain Days – Totals
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for US Northeast
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in US Northeast changing?
US Northeast is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for US Northeast come from?
Climate data for US Northeast comes from authoritative climate datasets including national meteorological services and peer-reviewed reanalyses, refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the US Northeast climate data cover?
The US Northeast climate profile covers New York, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, New Jersey and surrounding areas. NOAA Northeast climate region - CT, DE, ME, MA, MD, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT
How often is the US Northeast climate update refreshed?
The US Northeast climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.