Global Climate
This month in numbers
June 2026 was the 2nd warmest June on record for the planet, with a global land and ocean temperature of 14.99°C, an anomaly of +0.97°C above the 1961–1990 average. This trails only June 2024 as the warmest June. The 10-year rolling mean (2017-2026) now stands at 14.93°C, which is +1.43°C above the pre-industrial baseline, bringing us ever closer to the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold.
Land vs ocean
A significant land-ocean warming contrast continues, with global land temperatures in June 2026 registering as the 4th warmest on record at 15.24°C, an anomaly of +1.25°C. Meanwhile, global ocean temperatures reached an all-time high for June at 14.89°C, an anomaly of +0.85°C. This persistent ocean warmth is a key indicator of the planet's accumulating heat.
Cross-region picture
A striking pattern this month shows that all 10 of the top 10 warmest 1-month anomalies were individual countries, indicating widespread and intense heat across specific regions. Switzerland, Spain, and Italy experienced particularly high temperature anomalies, with Switzerland seeing a remarkable +5.82°C above its 1961–1990 average.
What’s driving change?
The planet-scale trend of rising temperatures is being significantly influenced by the strengthening El Niño conditions. The current ENSO state is El Niño (weak), with an anomaly of +0.98°C for April-June 2026. Forecasters predict a 100% probability of El Niño persisting through the end of 2026 and into early 2027, with a high chance of it becoming strong or even very strong. This El Niño event is exacerbating global warming, contributing to record ocean temperatures, and driving extreme weather events such as the intense heatwave that affected much of Western Europe in June, breaking numerous temperature records and leading to wildfires and heat-related deaths. The effect is also evident, with land areas experiencing more pronounced temperature anomalies.
Looking ahead
With El Niño conditions expected to strengthen and persist, above-average temperatures are forecast nearly everywhere for the coming months, increasing the risk of heat stress and compounding hazards in some regions.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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FAQs
FAQs
What does this global climate update show?
A monthly snapshot of the global climate: surface temperature anomalies relative to pre-industrial levels, ocean and land warming, sea ice extent, atmospheric CO₂, methane and nitrous oxide concentrations, ENSO phase and the latest position against the 1.5°C (2.7°F) and 2°C (3.6°F) Paris Agreement targets. The current month's numbers are shown in the live data panels above.
Which baselines are used to measure global warming?
The headline figure compares the trailing 10-year mean to the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, in line with the IPCC. Shorter-term anomalies are calculated against the 1991-2020 climate normal, the WMO standard. Both baselines are labelled directly on each chart.
Where does the global climate data come from?
Surface temperature: NOAA NCEI, NASA GISS and Hadley Centre HadCRUT5. Greenhouse gases: NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory. Sea ice: NSIDC. Ocean heat content: Copernicus / NOAA. ENSO: NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Pre-industrial baselines and emission pathways: IPCC AR6. Full source list at Methodology & Sources.
Has Earth already passed the 1.5°C warming limit?
The 1.5°C (2.7°F) target in the Paris Agreement refers to a long-term mean - usually a 10- to 20-year average versus the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. Individual years can briefly exceed 1.5°C (2.7°F) without the long-term threshold being crossed; 2024 was the first calendar year above that line. The Paris Tracker on this page shows the trailing 10-year mean (the official WMO/IPCC interpretation) and the 12-month running mean side-by-side, so you can read both figures at a glance and see how close the long-term mean now sits to 1.5°C (2.7°F).
When will Earth reach 2°C of warming above pre-industrial levels?
There is no fixed calendar date - it depends on the global emissions pathway over the next two decades. IPCC AR6 projects the trailing 20-year mean reaches 2°C (3.6°F) in the early-to-mid 2040s under intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5) and could be delayed to the 2050s under deep mitigation (SSP1-2.6). The chart on this page extrapolates the current observed trend to flag the year the trailing 10-year mean is on track to cross 2°C (3.6°F) if the present rate continues - a useful early-warning indicator, not a forecast.
What is the pre-industrial baseline and why 1850-1900?
1850-1900 is the earliest 50-year window with broad, reliable instrumental coverage of global temperature. Earlier periods rely on sparser proxy records. The IPCC and WMO standardised on this window so every assessment uses the same starting point when reporting how much the planet has warmed. All Paris-Agreement-relevant warming figures on 4 Billion Years On are quoted against 1850-1900.
How much have CO₂, methane and nitrous oxide concentrations changed?
CO₂ has risen from a pre-industrial ~280 ppm to a current monthly value shown live in the greenhouse-gas panel above (NOAA Mauna Loa series). Methane and nitrous oxide are tracked in the same panel using NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory marine boundary-layer averages. Each tile shows the current monthly mean, the year-on-year change and the long-run growth rate - we deliberately do not bake the live numbers into this FAQ so the answer never goes stale.
How often is this page updated?
The live data panels refresh on each page request from a monthly cache that rebuilds within days of the underlying datasets being released (typically the first half of each month). The AI-written narrative summary refreshes on the same monthly cadence.
Where can I see country, regional or city-level climate data?
See the Climate Hub for every country, US state and UK region we track, the Climate Rankings for sortable cross-region anomalies, and the Methodology & Sources for the complete data-source and baseline reference.