Global Climate
This month in numbers
March 2026 registered a global land and ocean temperature of 15.21°C, an anomaly of +1.15°C above the 1961–1990 baseline, making it the 3rd warmest March on record. This figure is just shy of the all-time March record set in 2025. The 10-year rolling average for 2016-2025 stands at 14.91°C, which is +1.41°C above pre-industrial levels, bringing us perilously close to the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold. The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed that the past 11 years (2015–2025) were the hottest on record, with the planet's climate in a state of "imbalance".
Land vs ocean
The land continues to warm at a faster rate than the oceans. In March 2026, global land-only temperatures were 16.09°C, an anomaly of +1.97°C above the 1961–1990 average, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record for land. Meanwhile, ocean-only temperatures reached 14.81°C, an anomaly of +0.78°C, making it the 2nd warmest March for the oceans.
Cross-region picture
A striking pattern emerged from the latest monthly rankings, with all 10 of the warmest 1-month anomalies being US states, including Arizona, Utah, and Colorado. This indicates a significant concentration of unusually high temperatures across the western and central United States.
What’s driving change?
The current ENSO state is Neutral, with an anomaly of +0.11°C for February-April 2026. However, forecasts indicate a likely transition to El Niño conditions in the latter half of 2026, with a 61% probability for May-July and a 79% probability for June-August. This shift in the ENSO tracker cycle is a significant warming driver and could further intensify global heat and weather extremes. The continued increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is driving the planet's energy imbalance, with approximately 90% of the excess energy accumulating in the oceans. Scientists have also detected a statistically significant acceleration in global warming since around 2015, with temperatures climbing at an estimated rate of about 0.35°C per decade in the past decade.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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FAQs
FAQs
What does this global climate update show?
A monthly snapshot of the global climate: surface temperature anomalies relative to pre-industrial levels, ocean and land warming, sea ice extent, atmospheric CO₂, methane and nitrous oxide concentrations, ENSO phase and the latest position against the 1.5°C and 2°C Paris Agreement targets. The current month's numbers are shown in the live data panels above.
Which baselines are used to measure global warming?
The headline figure compares the trailing 10-year mean to the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, in line with the IPCC. Shorter-term anomalies are calculated against the 1991-2020 climate normal, the WMO standard. Both baselines are labelled directly on each chart.
Where does the global climate data come from?
Surface temperature: NOAA NCEI, NASA GISS and Hadley Centre HadCRUT5. Greenhouse gases: NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory. Sea ice: NSIDC. Ocean heat content: Copernicus / NOAA. ENSO: NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Pre-industrial baselines and emission pathways: IPCC AR6. Full source list at Methodology & Sources.
Has Earth already passed the 1.5°C warming limit?
The 1.5°C target in the Paris Agreement refers to a long-term mean - usually a 10- to 20-year average versus the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. Individual years can briefly exceed 1.5°C without the long-term threshold being crossed; 2024 was the first calendar year above that line. The Paris Tracker on this page shows the trailing 10-year mean (the official WMO/IPCC interpretation) and the 12-month running mean side-by-side, so you can read both figures at a glance and see how close the long-term mean now sits to 1.5°C.
When will Earth reach 2°C of warming above pre-industrial levels?
There is no fixed calendar date - it depends on the global emissions pathway over the next two decades. IPCC AR6 projects the trailing 20-year mean reaches 2°C in the early-to-mid 2040s under intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5) and could be delayed to the 2050s under deep mitigation (SSP1-2.6). The chart on this page extrapolates the current observed trend to flag the year the trailing 10-year mean is on track to cross 2°C if the present rate continues - a useful early-warning indicator, not a forecast.
What is the pre-industrial baseline and why 1850-1900?
1850-1900 is the earliest 50-year window with broad, reliable instrumental coverage of global temperature. Earlier periods rely on sparser proxy records. The IPCC and WMO standardised on this window so every assessment uses the same starting point when reporting how much the planet has warmed. All Paris-Agreement-relevant warming figures on 4 Billion Years On are quoted against 1850-1900.
How much have CO₂, methane and nitrous oxide concentrations changed?
CO₂ has risen from a pre-industrial ~280 ppm to a current monthly value shown live in the greenhouse-gas panel above (NOAA Mauna Loa series). Methane and nitrous oxide are tracked in the same panel using NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory marine boundary-layer averages. Each tile shows the current monthly mean, the year-on-year change and the long-run growth rate - we deliberately do not bake the live numbers into this FAQ so the answer never goes stale.
How often is this page updated?
The live data panels refresh on each page request from a monthly cache that rebuilds within days of the underlying datasets being released (typically the first half of each month). The AI-written narrative summary refreshes on the same monthly cadence.
Where can I see country, regional or city-level climate data?
See the Climate Hub for every country, US state and UK region we track, the Climate Rankings for sortable cross-region anomalies, and the Methodology & Sources for the complete data-source and baseline reference.