Global Climate – July 2026 Update
Summary
Global temperatures reached extraordinary levels in July 2026 as planetary surface heat averaged 16.98°C, an anomaly of +1.07°C above the 1961–1990 baseline that made it the 2nd warmest on record for the month. Exceptional heatwaves scorched western Europe, where countries including Switzerland, Spain and France recorded monthly departures exceeding +4.5°C, intensifying severe droughts and triggering widespread wildfires. Global ocean surface temperatures also surged to unprecedented highs, propelled by a moderate El Niño that is intensifying and forecast to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec.
This month in numbers
In July 2026, the global combined land and ocean surface temperature reached 16.98°C, standing +1.07°C above the 1961–1990 WMO baseline and ranking as the 2nd warmest on record for the month. Over the 3-month window from May to July 2026, the global anomaly averaged +1.00°C, also ranking 2nd in the 77-year dataset. Looking at long-term climate policy benchmarks, the 10-year rolling average for 2017 to 2026 stands at 14.93°C, which is +1.43°C above pre-industrial levels and sits immediately below the Paris Agreement 1.5°C threshold.
Land vs ocean
Global land surfaces averaged 15.82°C in July 2026, an anomaly of +1.44°C above baseline that ranked as the 3rd warmest on record. By contrast, global oceans reached 17.42°C with a +0.89°C anomaly, setting an all-time record high for the month. Although ocean anomalies appear smaller numerically, surfaces because land requires far less energy to heat and cannot transfer warmth into deeper water layers.
Cross-region picture
Nine of the top 10 warmest 1-month anomalies across all tracked regions occurred in European countries, led by Switzerland at +5.44°C, Spain at +4.92°C and France at +4.63°C above baseline averages.
What’s driving change?
The underlying planetary trend is driven by greenhouse gas emissions, further amplified by natural climate variability and atmospheric patterns. A moderate El Niño in the tropical Pacific, tracked at ENSO with a Relative Niño Index of +0.98°C, is strengthening ocean heat and is forecast with an 81% probability to reach Very Strong intensity in Oct-Dec. In Europe, persistent locked scorching air in place, drying out soils and priming landscapes for burning. Wildfire clusters have also been monitored across Angola and Russia this month, see Extreme Weather tracker. Meanwhile, heavy seasonal rains triggered major flooding in China, tracked at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
Seasonal climate outlooks indicate that elevated global temperatures and ocean heat will persist into autumn, with the intensifying El Niño expected to heighten extreme weather risks across multiple continents over the next 1-3 months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Global
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Source: NOAA NCEI (temperature, land + ocean); World Bank CCKP / GPCC (precipitation, snow).
Heatwave Days – Global
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year. Land-area-weighted mean across 169 countries.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Paris Agreement Tracker
How close are we to 1.5°C and 2°C? Global land + ocean surface temperature (NOAA) – the series used by Copernicus, WMO and the IPCC.
+1.43°C
above pre-industrial
Earth's surface is currently 1.43°C warmer than the pre-industrial (1850–1900) average, based on the 10-year mean for 2017–2026. Climate scientists use a decade average, not a single year, to smooth out natural variability (El Niño, volcanoes) and define long-term warming, in line with WMO and IPCC AR6 methodology. A single year can cross 1.5°C and then fall back; the Paris limit is considered breached only once the 10-year mean stays above it.
1.5°C ≈ 15.0°C absolute · aspirational lower limit agreed at COP21 Paris (2015)
2.0°C ≈ 15.5°C absolute · dangerous-warming ceiling; every 0.1°C above 1.5°C measurably worsens heatwaves, sea-level rise and ecosystem loss
Warming above pre-industrial, 2000–2026
Thin orange line = individual years · thick gold line = 10-year mean (the official Paris tracker) · amber dashes = +1.5°C Paris limit · red dashes = +2.0°C critical limit · green dashes = pre-industrial 1850–1900 baseline · blue dashes = WMO 1961–1990 standard baseline · vertical orange dash = first annual anomaly above +1.5°C (2023). All values are anomalies vs the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average.
10-year mean (2017–2026)
+1.43°C
14.93°C absolute · official Paris metric
Latest full year (2026)
+1.54°C
15.04°C absolute
Hottest year on record
+1.66°C
in 2024
First year above 1.5°C
2023
+1.57°C - a single-year breach, not yet the 10-yr mean
Two baselines, two purposes
- Pre-industrial (1850-1900) ≈ 13.5°C - used only for the Paris 1.5°C and 2.0°C limits above.
- 1961-1990 (WMO standard) - used for the monthly/quarterly rankings in the table above and on country pages. A relatively stable mid-20th-century reference.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Global Land + Ocean
NOAA Climate at a Glance - Global Land+Ocean - Paris rings vs global 1850-1900 mean (13.5°C).
Monthly Temperature – Global Land + Ocean
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: NOAA Climate at a Glance - the headline series Copernicus, WMO and NOAA report against.
Records – Global
NOAA Climate at a Glance - Global Land+Ocean - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons Worldwide
Global Temperature
Land vs Ocean - Long-Term Trend
10-year rolling anomaly vs 1961–1990
Land has less heat capacity than water and loses no energy to evaporative cooling, so its anomaly climbs well above the ocean's steadier rise.
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance
Last 12 Months vs 1961–1990
Monthly anomaly - NOAA (bars) vs ERA5 (line)
Land warms roughly twice as fast as the ocean, so the line runs well above the bars.
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (land + ocean); Our World in Data (land, ERA5)
Ocean Temperature
Global Ocean · Absolute Temperature
Ocean covers ~71% of Earth's surface, so its temperature moves the global average more than any other single factor.
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance
Global Sea Ice Extent
Arctic + Antarctic Combined · Absolute Extent
Last 60 months. Thick line shows 12-month rolling average – Arctic loss exceeds Antarctic variability.
Source: NSIDC via global-warming.org
Climate Systems
ENSO - El Niño
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the single biggest year-to-year driver of global temperature and rainfall after the long-term warming trend itself. It is also a natural amplifier of climate change.
ENSO state
intensifying93% very strong at peak · Sep-NovWarm Pacific - Global Temperatures Rise
RONI · 3-mo3-month mean
El Niño
+0.98°C · MJJ 2026 · ONI +1.39°C
Niño 3.4 · latest
SST 29.5°C · w/e 05-08-26
What's Coming
NOAA forecast
Very Strong at peakPeak +2.7/+3.1°C (RONI/ONI median)
El Niño conditions are already in place and forecast to peak at 100% probability in JAS-JFM. The dashed off-white curve (shaded band = 90% range) is NOAA’s own official RONI outlook, peaking in OND 2026. The current forecast was issued August 2026.
ONI stands for Oceanic Niño Index; RONI stands for Relative Oceanic Niño Index, and both measure Sea Surface Temperature (SST) for the Niño 3.4 region. Strength is classified on RONI - NOAA’s official index since Feb 2026 - which subtracts the tropics-wide warming background so events are ranked consistently across the decades.
Sources: NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), NOAA CPC Relative ONI (RONI), NOAA CPC weekly Niño 3.4, NOAA official RONI outlook, NOAA CPC probability outlook, SNU ACE Lab CNN forecast. RONI methodology: Stockdale (2026, ECMWF); forecasts converted from raw Niño 3.4 by the observed ~0.5°C ONI−RONI gap.
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Sources
Baselines
WMO standard - used for the monthly and quarterly anomalies above.
1850–1900. Used only for the Paris 1.5°C / 2.0°C limits (10-year mean).
NOAA’s reference for individual monthly and yearly anomalies.
FAQs
FAQs
What does this global climate update show?
A monthly snapshot of the global climate: surface temperature anomalies relative to pre-industrial levels, ocean and land warming, sea ice extent, atmospheric CO₂, methane and nitrous oxide concentrations, ENSO phase and the latest position against the 1.5°C (2.7°F) and 2°C (3.6°F) Paris Agreement targets. The current month's numbers are shown in the live data panels above.
Which baselines are used to measure global warming?
The headline figure compares the trailing 10-year mean to the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, in line with the IPCC. Shorter-term anomalies are calculated against the 1991-2020 climate normal, the WMO standard. Both baselines are labelled directly on each chart.
Where does the global climate data come from?
Surface temperature: NOAA NCEI, NASA GISS and Hadley Centre HadCRUT5. Greenhouse gases: NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory. Sea ice: NSIDC. Ocean heat content: Copernicus / NOAA. ENSO: NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Pre-industrial baselines and emission pathways: IPCC AR6. Full source list at Methodology & Sources.
Has Earth already passed the 1.5°C warming limit?
The 1.5°C (2.7°F) target in the Paris Agreement refers to a long-term mean - usually a 10- to 20-year average versus the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. Individual years can briefly exceed 1.5°C (2.7°F) without the long-term threshold being crossed; 2024 was the first calendar year above that line. The Paris Tracker on this page shows the trailing 10-year mean (the official WMO/IPCC interpretation) and the 12-month running mean side-by-side, so you can read both figures at a glance and see how close the long-term mean now sits to 1.5°C (2.7°F).
When will Earth reach 2°C of warming above pre-industrial levels?
There is no fixed calendar date - it depends on the global emissions pathway over the next two decades. IPCC AR6 projects the trailing 20-year mean reaches 2°C (3.6°F) in the early-to-mid 2040s under intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5) and could be delayed to the 2050s under deep mitigation (SSP1-2.6). The chart on this page extrapolates the current observed trend to flag the year the trailing 10-year mean is on track to cross 2°C (3.6°F) if the present rate continues - a useful early-warning indicator, not a forecast.
What is the pre-industrial baseline and why 1850-1900?
1850-1900 is the earliest 50-year window with broad, reliable instrumental coverage of global temperature. Earlier periods rely on sparser proxy records. The IPCC and WMO standardised on this window so every assessment uses the same starting point when reporting how much the planet has warmed. All Paris-Agreement-relevant warming figures on 4 Billion Years On are quoted against 1850-1900.
How much have CO₂, methane and nitrous oxide concentrations changed?
CO₂ has risen from a pre-industrial ~280 ppm to a current monthly value shown live in the greenhouse-gas panel above (NOAA Mauna Loa series). Methane and nitrous oxide are tracked in the same panel using NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory marine boundary-layer averages. Each tile shows the current monthly mean, the year-on-year change and the long-run growth rate - we deliberately do not bake the live numbers into this FAQ so the answer never goes stale.
How often is this page updated?
The live data panels refresh on each page request from a monthly cache that rebuilds within days of the underlying datasets being released (typically the first half of each month). The AI-written narrative summary refreshes on the same monthly cadence.
Where can I see country, regional or city-level climate data?
See the Climate Hub for every country, US state and UK region we track, the Climate Rankings for sortable cross-region anomalies, and the Methodology & Sources for the complete data-source and baseline reference.