Global Climate
This month in numbers
April 2026 registered a global land and ocean temperature of 15.02°C, an anomaly of +1.00°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. This makes it the 4th warmest April on record. The all-time record for April was 15.16°C in April 2024. The 10-year rolling mean (2016-2025) stands at 14.91°C, placing it +1.41°C above pre-industrial levels, inching closer to the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C threshold.
Land vs ocean
The planet's land surfaces continue to warm at a faster rate than the oceans. In April 2026, land-only temperatures were 15.38°C, an anomaly of +1.37°C, ranking as the 7th warmest on record for land. Meanwhile, ocean-only temperatures reached 14.85°C, an anomaly of +0.82°C, making it the 2nd warmest April for oceans. This effect is a consistent pattern in global warming.
Cross-region picture
A striking pattern emerged in the 1-month anomalies for April, with Central Asian countries experiencing exceptionally high temperatures. Uzbekistan, Iran, and Turkmenistan topped the list, with anomalies of +5.56°C, +5.23°C, and +5.21°C respectively. Looking at the three-month anomalies, nine of the top ten warmest regions were US states, including Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arizona, indicating a significant concentration of warmth across the American Southwest.
What’s driving change?
The planet is currently in an ENSO-neutral state, with the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for February-April 2026 at +0.11°C. However, a significant shift is underway, with a high probability of El Niño conditions emerging in the coming months. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) both indicate a strong likelihood of El Niño developing as early as May–July 2026, with forecasts suggesting it could persist through the end of the year and potentially be a strong event. This evolving ENSO phase is a major warming driver, as El Niño typically has a warming effect on global climate, amplifying existing human-induced climate change. Record-high sea surface temperatures were observed across large parts of the tropical Pacific in April, associated with strong marine heatwaves. This ocean heat content has tripled in recent decades, with marine heatwaves converting this "hidden" heat into more extreme weather events.
Looking ahead
Seasonal forecasts indicate a widespread global signal for above-normal land surface temperatures for the April–June 2026 season, particularly across much of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, as El Niño conditions are expected to develop and intensify.
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FAQs
FAQs
What does this global climate update show?
A monthly snapshot of the global climate: surface temperature anomalies relative to pre-industrial levels, ocean and land warming, sea ice extent, atmospheric CO₂, methane and nitrous oxide concentrations, ENSO phase and the latest position against the 1.5°C and 2°C Paris Agreement targets. The current month's numbers are shown in the live data panels above.
Which baselines are used to measure global warming?
The headline figure compares the trailing 10-year mean to the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, in line with the IPCC. Shorter-term anomalies are calculated against the 1991-2020 climate normal, the WMO standard. Both baselines are labelled directly on each chart.
Where does the global climate data come from?
Surface temperature: NOAA NCEI, NASA GISS and Hadley Centre HadCRUT5. Greenhouse gases: NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory. Sea ice: NSIDC. Ocean heat content: Copernicus / NOAA. ENSO: NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Pre-industrial baselines and emission pathways: IPCC AR6. Full source list at Methodology & Sources.
Has Earth already passed the 1.5°C warming limit?
The 1.5°C target in the Paris Agreement refers to a long-term mean - usually a 10- to 20-year average versus the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. Individual years can briefly exceed 1.5°C without the long-term threshold being crossed; 2024 was the first calendar year above that line. The Paris Tracker on this page shows the trailing 10-year mean (the official WMO/IPCC interpretation) and the 12-month running mean side-by-side, so you can read both figures at a glance and see how close the long-term mean now sits to 1.5°C.
When will Earth reach 2°C of warming above pre-industrial levels?
There is no fixed calendar date - it depends on the global emissions pathway over the next two decades. IPCC AR6 projects the trailing 20-year mean reaches 2°C in the early-to-mid 2040s under intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5) and could be delayed to the 2050s under deep mitigation (SSP1-2.6). The chart on this page extrapolates the current observed trend to flag the year the trailing 10-year mean is on track to cross 2°C if the present rate continues - a useful early-warning indicator, not a forecast.
What is the pre-industrial baseline and why 1850-1900?
1850-1900 is the earliest 50-year window with broad, reliable instrumental coverage of global temperature. Earlier periods rely on sparser proxy records. The IPCC and WMO standardised on this window so every assessment uses the same starting point when reporting how much the planet has warmed. All Paris-Agreement-relevant warming figures on 4 Billion Years On are quoted against 1850-1900.
How much have CO₂, methane and nitrous oxide concentrations changed?
CO₂ has risen from a pre-industrial ~280 ppm to a current monthly value shown live in the greenhouse-gas panel above (NOAA Mauna Loa series). Methane and nitrous oxide are tracked in the same panel using NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory marine boundary-layer averages. Each tile shows the current monthly mean, the year-on-year change and the long-run growth rate - we deliberately do not bake the live numbers into this FAQ so the answer never goes stale.
How often is this page updated?
The live data panels refresh on each page request from a monthly cache that rebuilds within days of the underlying datasets being released (typically the first half of each month). The AI-written narrative summary refreshes on the same monthly cadence.
Where can I see country, regional or city-level climate data?
See the Climate Hub for every country, US state and UK region we track, the Climate Rankings for sortable cross-region anomalies, and the Methodology & Sources for the complete data-source and baseline reference.