Italy Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Rome, Milan, Naples, Turin, Palermo, San Marino, and Vatican
Summary
Italy experienced its 2nd warmest July on record as successive heatwaves swept the peninsula, driving temperatures 3.7°C above the long-term average. The intense heat prompted health authorities to place all 27 major monitored cities on maximum red alert as urban infrastructure and public health faced severe strain. The sweltering conditions coincided with a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec, with warm, dry patterns expected to persist across the Mediterranean into early autumn.
This month in numbers
Italy recorded an average temperature of 24.92°C in July 2026, marking an extraordinary anomaly of +3.7°C above the 1961-1990 baseline. This was the 2nd warmest July in 87 years of records, falling just short of the 25.03°C record set in 2015. The summer as a whole has been exceptionally hot, with the May-July three-month period averaging 21.35°C (+3.4°C anomaly), ranking as the 3rd warmest May-July period on record behind only 2022.
What changed
The extreme warmth in Italy outpaced the wider continental and global trends. Across Europe, where average temperatures ran 2.25°C above baseline, Italy stood as the 4th warmest country on the continent and ranked 11th out of 232 tracked regions globally for one-month anomaly. On a global scale, land temperatures ranked 3rd warmest for July and 2nd warmest for the May-July period, demonstrating how Mediterranean heat aligned with broad planetary warming trends. Dedicated regional data for the continent is tracked on our Europe page at Europe.
What’s driving change?
The primary driver behind the persistent summer heat was a series of intense , created when high-pressure systems stalled over southern Europe and trapped warm air masses. This regional was further amplified as , accelerating heat build-up across inland terrain and dense urban areas where the effect raised nighttime temperatures. In the tropical Pacific, a moderate El Niño remains active, tracked on our live map at ENSO; while its influence on Mediterranean summers is historically modest, it continues to nudge global temperatures upward. All of Italy's single wildfire event this year occurred during this hot month, as tracked on our map at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
Seasonal forecasts suggest that above-average temperatures are likely to persist across southern Europe over the coming months, with climate models indicating an 81% probability that the current El Niño will intensify to a Very Strong peak during October to December.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Italy
Köppen Cfa · TemperateItaly has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfa: Humid subtropical), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 23.6°C, while January is the coldest at 5.0°C. Annual precipitation averages around 878mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Italy
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Italy
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Italy
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Italy
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Italy
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfb · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in Italy. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (12.0°C, from 1940–1969); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 19.0°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Feb (+2.9°C).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Italy
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Italy changing?
Italy is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Italy?
Italy has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfa: Humid subtropical), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 23.6°C, while January is the coldest at 5.0°C. Annual precipitation averages around 878mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Italy come from?
Climate data for Italy comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Italy climate data cover?
The Italy climate profile covers Rome, Milan, Naples, Turin and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Italy
How often is the Italy climate update refreshed?
The Italy climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Italy climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Italy climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.