New Jersey Climate – Sep 2026September 2026 Update

Novarupta (Katmai) eruption

The largest volcanic eruption anywhere in the world in the 20th century - 13 km3 of magma, about thirty times the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption - at Novarupta in Alaska on 6-8 June 1912. Ash reached 100,000 ft and cooled the Northern Hemisphere by roughly 0.3°C over 1912-13. Unlike a tropical eruption such as Pinatubo, a high-latitude eruption's haze stays in its own hemisphere, so it did little to the Southern Hemisphere.

Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, Alaska Volcano Observatory, National Park Service, Oman et al. 2005

Post-WWII industrial expansion begins

After the Second World War, coal and oil use grew rapidly across Europe, North America and the Soviet Union. Global sulphur dioxide emissions rose from about 30 to about 130 million tonnes a year by 1980, and the sulphate haze they formed masked part of the greenhouse warming underneath - the effect known as 'global dimming'.

Klimont et al. 2013

The summer of 1953

1953 gave New Jersey 9.2 heatwave days, its 4th-highest of the 1950-2025 record, though it ranks only 24th-warmest by annual mean - a summer event, not a warm year.

Northeast Regional Climate Center, LIFE

The 1960s Northeast drought (New Jersey)

Tree-ring reconstructions suggest this may be the worst mid-Atlantic drought in several hundred years; the Delaware River was reduced to 'a trickle', with saltwater intrusion and water rationing.

NJ Climate Change Resource Center

The 1962-66 Northeast drought

1965 was New Jersey's driest year in this site's 1950-2025 record - 743 mm, 35% below its 1961-90 average. It was not one dry year but five: 1962-66 as a whole averaged 19% below that baseline.

USGS, Seager et al. 2012, NYC Emergency Management

Agung eruption

Agung's eruption in Bali put a veil of sulphate haze into the stratosphere that cooled global temperature by about 0.3°C over 1963-66.

Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory

US Clean Air Act

The 1970 Clean Air Act set strict national standards for sulphur dioxide and particulates, and American skies got measurably cleaner over the decades that followed. There is a climate sting in that success: sulphate aerosols reflect sunlight, so removing them removed a cooling effect that had been partly masking greenhouse warming. Measured here, New Jersey averaged +1.57°C warmer across 2006-2025 than across the two decades before the Act, 1951-1970 - the 2nd-largest rise of the 49 states whose records reach back that far. Cleaning the air was unambiguously right for human health. It also uncovered warming that was already there, and New Jersey is near the top of the list.

US EPA

The 1973-74 La Niña

The strongest La Niña of the 1950-present record, part of a multi-year cool phase that also included a second, separate La Niña in 1975-76.

ONI -2.0°C · RONI -1.9°C

NOAA CPCENSO Tracker

The cold winters of 1976-79

1978 is New Jersey's 2nd-coldest year in this site's 1950-2025 record, the middle of three severe winters in a row: January 1977 was probably the eastern United States' coldest month in two centuries, and 1978-79 the coldest winter on record nationally.

Illinois State Water Survey, Missouri Climate Center, Monthly Weather Review (1978), Wikipedia

Pacific Decadal Oscillation flips to a warm phase

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a North Pacific pattern, and its influence on this side of the country is weak and indirect - mostly through how it nudges the winter jet stream downstream. Its 1976-77 flip marks a genuine shift in Pacific-basin climate, but for eastern states the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is the ocean cycle that matters more.

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Global SO2 emissions peak

Global sulphur dioxide emissions peak at about 130 million tonnes a year, then begin a long decline as Europe, North America and Japan clean up their air. As the aerosol mask thins, the rate of global warming picks up through the 1980s.

Klimont et al. 2013

El Chichón eruption

A sulphur-rich eruption in Mexico whose aerosol cloud stayed in the stratosphere for more than two years, cooling the Northern Hemisphere by about 0.2°C.

Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program

1982-83 El Niño

El Niño has only a weak pull on New Jersey's winter rainfall - it is not one of the seven states where ENSO reliably moves it. In 1982-83 New Jersey's winter rainfall ran -16% against the 1961-90 average, with temperatures +2.1°C. On NOAA's RONI index, which strips out background ocean warming, this is the strongest El Niño since 1950.

ONI +2.1°C · RONI +2.4°C

NOAA CPC, NOAA CPC (2)ENSO Tracker

Daytime warming catches up with the night-led pattern

Across 1961-90, 81% of the world's land saw nights warming faster than days. Across 1991-2020 the pattern reversed: 70% saw days warming faster, as the industrial haze that had been dimming daytime sunshine was cleaned up. The study compares two fixed thirty-year windows; measured as a turning point, this site's own global series turns around 1982.

Zhong et al. 2023

1990-91: mild winters and warm years

1990 is New Jersey's 12th-warmest year in this site's 1950-2025 record, and 1991 its 13th-warmest. Mild winters did most of it: January-February 1990 was the warmest start to a year the contiguous US had recorded, a record that stood until 1998.

News & Record / AP (1991), NOAA NCEI

Mount Pinatubo erupts

Pinatubo's cooling does not show in New Jersey's own record: 1993, two years after the June 1991 eruption, was an unremarkable year there, 37th-coldest of 76. A single large eruption can hold temperatures down for two or three years; it cannot reverse the trend.

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Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation flips to a warm phase

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation flipped to a warm phase in 1995, and for the Northeast its reach is through the Atlantic hurricane season: the warm phase since includes Irene in 2011 and Sandy in 2012. It is a natural cycle of roughly 60-70 years, so it shifts the baseline rather than driving the long-term trend.

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1997-98 El Niño

In 1997-98 New Jersey's winter rainfall ran +30% against the 1961-90 average, with temperatures +4.0°C - though ENSO's pull on rainfall here is weak. It is often treated as the textbook strong El Niño.

ONI +2.4°C · RONI +2.3°C

NOAA CPC, NOAA NCEIENSO Tracker

Pacific Decadal Oscillation flips back to a cool phase

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation returned to a cool phase around 1998-99. Its direct effects are western - drier conditions across the south-west, changes in North Pacific fisheries - and its influence on this side of the country is weak and indirect. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which flipped warm in 1995, is the ocean cycle with more bearing on eastern weather.

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The 1999-2002 Eastern drought

2001 was New Jersey's 3rd-driest year on record here - 903 mm, 21% below its 1961-90 average. It was not one dry year: 2001 and 2002 together averaged 9% below that baseline. Rainfall was below normal in ten months of twelve, and the governor declared a statewide water emergency on 4 March 2002.

USGS New England Water Science Center, Vermont State Climate Office, NOAA Drought.gov

The hot summer of 2002

2002 gave New Jersey 12.1 heatwave days, its 2nd-highest of the 1950-2025 record, against an annual mean that ranks only 15th-warmest - another summer that does not show in a yearly average.

NOAA NCEI

Start of the sustained rise in US heatwave frequency

New Jersey's own Heatwave Days (WSDI) count rose from a 1961-90 average of 1.9 days a year to 2.8 in 2016-25 - a modest rise, and one of the smallest in the country against a 50-state average of 2.4x.

World Bank CCKP (CCKP), NOAA Climate at a Glance

The Northeast's record summer of 2010

New Jersey recorded its warmest January-August on record in 2010, one of six Northeast states to do so that year. Its heatwave-day count that year ranks 13th of 76 in this site's record - high but not exceptional - which is a reminder that a warm YEAR and a run of extreme DAYS are different measurements, and this site tracks both.

NOAA Climate.gov, NOAA NCEI, Northeast Regional Climate Center

Hurricane Sandy (Superstorm Sandy)

Sandy came ashore near Atlantic City on 29 October 2012 with 80 mph sustained winds - an unusual near-perpendicular track into the coast that drove water straight at it. New Jersey took $37bn of the storm's ~$70bn total, more than every other state combined, and parts of the Atlantic City boardwalk were destroyed. The tide record at Sandy Hook, set by Hurricane Donna in 1960, was beaten by 3.2 ft.

NWS Mount Holly, NJDEP, Britannica

2012: the warmest year on record for the contiguous US

2012 is New Jersey's warmest year in this site's 1950-2025 record. Nationally it was the warmest year the contiguous United States had recorded, 3.2°F above the 20th-century average, with a record-warm March that broke more than 15,000 daily records; 19 states set record-warm years.

NOAA Climate.gov, NOAA Climate.gov (2)

Post-2013 acceleration in US temperatures

5 of New Jersey's ten warmest years on record have occurred since 2013 - fewer than in most states - but 9 of the ten have come since 2000, with 2012 the warmest of all. The acceleration is clear in New Jersey's data; its year-to-year swings are simply wide enough to spread the warmest years further apart than the national mean does.

NOAA Climate at a Glance

2015-16 El Niño

In 2015-16 New Jersey's winter rainfall ran +21% against the 1961-90 average, with temperatures +4.3°C - though ENSO's pull on rainfall here is weak. By the raw ONI index it was the strongest El Niño ever measured - a reminder that a strong index does not guarantee a strong local outcome.

ONI +2.6°C · RONI +2.3°C

NOAA CPCENSO Tracker

2015-2025: the eleven warmest years on record

Globally, the eleven warmest years on record have all happened since 2015. New Jersey does not follow it: its hottest year is still 2012. Six of its own eleven warmest fall in the 2015-2025 span, with 2012, 2011, 2010, 2006 and 1998 outside it. New Jersey is one of 15 states where 2012 still tops the list.

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2018: the wettest year on record across the East

2018 was New Jersey's wettest year in this site's 1950-2025 record - 1645 mm, 44% above its 1961-90 average and ahead of 2011 (1624 mm), the previous highest.

NOAA NCEI, NOAA Climate.gov, NOAA NESDIS

Low-sulphur shipping fuel rule (IMO 2020)

New international shipping rules cut the sulphur allowed in ship fuel from 3.5% to 0.5% almost overnight, removing about 8 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide a year. With less sulphate haze over the oceans, it may have added around 0.1°C of warming by 2023-24.

Gettelman et al. 2024

2023-24 El Niño

A strong El Niño arriving on top of long-term greenhouse warming, with the cut in shipping sulphur from the 2020 fuel rule adding a little more. Together they produced the record global temperatures of 2023 and 2024.

ONI +2.0°C · RONI +1.4°C

NOAA CPCENSO Tracker