South America Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Countries: Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, and Chile
Data for Continents is averaged from country snapshots. See Methodology.
Summary
South America experienced a markedly warm month, with the continent running 1.40°C above its 1961-1990 baseline. Tropical and inland regions drove much of the excess heat, leaving northern and central areas increasingly dry and vulnerable to fire and forest degradation. The region is currently under the influence of a moderate El Niño, which is forecast to peak at Very Strong with a 93% probability in Sep-Nov according to our tracker at ENSO. Looking ahead, warmer and drier conditions are projected to expand across much of the continent through the coming months.
This month in numbers
South America registered a 1-month temperature anomaly of +1.40°C compared to the 1961-1990 reference period, marking a significant warming trend across the continent. Over broader timeframes, both the 3-month and 12-month rolling anomalies settled at +0.88°C above average. In a global context, European countries and UK regions claimed the highest monthly temperature spikes globally, but South America remained consistently warmer than long-term norms across its northern and central territories.
Hottest & coolest countries
The strongest anomalies were concentrated across the tropical north and central regions. Bolivia () recorded the highest departure from normal at +2.26°C, closely followed by Suriname () at +2.20°C and Peru () at +2.07°C. Colombia () was also exceptionally mild at +1.94°C above average. By contrast, southern territories experienced more tempered conditions, with Argentina () registering the continent's coolest anomaly at +0.48°C, while Chile () stood at +0.75°C.
What's driving change?
The primary atmospheric driver across the continent is ENSO, with a moderate El Niño currently active in the Pacific displaying a Relative Niño Index value of +0.98°C at ENSO. This ocean-atmosphere coupling reduces precipitation across the tropical belt, where further elevates land temperatures during dry spells. In interior basins, ongoing exacerbates local warming by removing natural canopy cooling, leaving vast forest areas drier and more susceptible to seasonal heating.
Looking ahead
Seasonal climate forecasts indicate that above-average temperatures and below-normal rainfall will persist across northern and central South America over the coming months as El Niño continues its forecast intensification.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – South America
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of 8 country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS); precipitation: GPCC (DWD).
Heatwave Days – South America
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year. Equal-weight mean across 8 countries.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived), aggregated by 4BYO across member countries. Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Hottest & Coolest in South America this Month
1-month anomaly vs 1961–1990 across the 8 members we cover. Click a name to open its profile.
Member Countries
These are the country snapshots aggregated into the South America series.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – South America
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of 8 country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS); precipitation: GPCC (DWD).
Monthly Temperature – South America
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of 8 country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS); precipitation: GPCC (DWD).
Records – South America
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of 8 country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS); precipitation: GPCC (DWD). - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Af · TropicalSouth America doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 4.1°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 3× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Sep (-8 mm, -10%).
4byo continent aggregate · OWID/CRU TS country monthly temperatures & precipitation: GPCC (DWD). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for South America
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in South America changing?
South America is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for South America come from?
Climate data for South America comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the South America climate data cover?
The South America climate profile covers Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Peru and surrounding areas. Aggregated from country snapshots - NOAA does not publish a SA continental series
How often is the South America climate update refreshed?
The South America climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the South America climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the South America climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.