South America Climate – May 2026 Update
Top 5 Countries: Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, and Chile
Data for Continents is averaged from country snapshots. See Methodology.
This month in numbers
South America experienced a significantly warmer May 2026, with temperatures averaging +1.00°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. The 3-month anomaly stands at +0.75°C, while the 12-month rolling anomaly reached +1.22°C. Globally, May 2026 was the second warmest May on record. All 10 of the warmest Mays on record since 1850 have occurred since 2016.
Hottest & coolest countries
Bolivia was notably warm this month, recording an anomaly of +1.80°C. Argentina also experienced significantly higher temperatures at +1.28°C, followed by Peru at +1.08°C. On the cooler side, Guyana registered the lowest anomaly at +0.57°C, though still well above the long-term average.
What's driving change?
The current climate pattern is strongly influenced by the developing El Niño, with the NOAA ONI 3-month (MAM 2026) in a Neutral state but with a weekly Niño 3.4 SST anomaly of +1.3°C. Forecasts indicate a 97% probability of El Niño emerging in May-July 2026, persisting through at least the end of the year, with some models suggesting a very strong or even record-breaking event. This shift is expected to exacerbate extreme weather events, including increased rainfall and flooding risk in southeastern South America, while central and equatorial South America may face drier conditions and elevated fire risk. A recent World Meteorological Organization report highlighted that record-breaking heat, persistent drought, and extreme rainfall impacted Latin America and the Caribbean in 2025, with melting glaciers in the Andes raising concerns about future water security for nearly 90 million people. The warming trend is also influenced by the effect.
Looking ahead
The strong El Niño event is expected to continue developing and persist through the remainder of the year, likely leading to increased global temperatures and a heightened risk of extreme hydroclimate events in 2026-2027.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Temperature anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Hottest & Coolest in South America this Month
1-month anomaly vs 1961–1990 across the 8 members we cover. Click a name to open its profile.
Member Countries
These are the country snapshots aggregated into the South America series.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – South America
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of 8 country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS).
South America – Monthly Temperature – All Years
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of 8 country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS).
Records – South America
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of 8 country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS).
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Cfb · TemperateSouth America doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 3.9°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 2× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly rainfall climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Mar (-13 mm, -8%).
4byo continent aggregate · OWID/CRU TS country monthly temperatures & rainfall. Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Data Sources
Data Sources for South America
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in South America changing?
South America is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for South America come from?
Climate data for South America comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the South America climate data cover?
The South America climate profile covers Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Peru and surrounding areas. Aggregated from country snapshots - NOAA does not publish a SA continental series
How often is the South America climate update refreshed?
The South America climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.