Chile Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Santiago, Valparaíso, Concepción, La Serena, and Antofagasta
Summary
Chile experienced an extraordinarily intense mid-winter storm system, even as broader temperatures across the country ran well above historical averages. The three-month period from May to July registered as the 6th warmest such stretch on record in Chile, averaging 6.22°C. Yet the headline narrative was dominated by a Category 5 atmospheric river that slammed central regions in mid-July. The storm delivered up to five metres of snow to high-elevation Andean resorts while triggering widespread flooding and landslides down in the valleys, prompting a state of emergency. Temperatures are expected to remain above average across central and northern Chile in the coming months.
This month in numbers
Chile recorded an average temperature of 4.89°C during July 2026, sitting 0.8°C above the 1961–1990 baseline and ranking 17th warmest on record for the month. The broader winter period carried an even stronger thermal signal, with the May to July average reaching 6.22°C. That sits 1.1°C above average, securing its place as the 6th warmest May–July period on record for the nation. Globally, the same three-month stretch ranked as the 2nd warmest May–July ever recorded for land areas, while the single-month average globally ranked 3rd warmest on record for the month. Looking at full-year figures, 2025 finished as Chile's 8th warmest year on record with a mean temperature of 9.48°C, extending a long-term warming trend of 0.76°C above the baseline.
What changed
While global land temperatures surged near record heights, Chile experienced a slightly more tempered departure from normal than many of its northern neighbours in South America, where the continental average ran 1.62°C above baseline. The nation sits within the broader regional tracking group for South America (South America), where countries such as Bolivia and Suriname saw single-month anomalies exceeding 2.2°C. Nevertheless, Chile's elevated winter temperatures continue a sustained trend, following a persistent pattern of warmer conditions that has kept seasonal averages consistently above historical benchmarks.
What’s driving change?
The primary catalyst for the extreme winter precipitation and persistent warmth across the Southern Cone is ENSO, with Pacific ocean surface temperatures altering regional atmospheric dynamics. These warm tropical waters fuel intense atmospheric rivers that drive , steering moisture-laden frontal systems directly into central Chile. Furthermore, in the Andes influences snowlines and precipitation phases, turning high-altitude blizzards into torrential rain and mudslides at lower elevations.
Looking ahead
Climate model forecasts for the coming months indicate a high probability of above-average temperatures continuing across central and northern Chile through late winter and into spring.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Chile
Köppen Cfb · TemperateChile has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. February is typically the warmest month, averaging 13.8°C, while July is the coldest at 4.9°C. Annual precipitation averages around 634mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Chile
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Chile
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Chile
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Chile
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Chile
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfb · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in Chile. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (8.3°C, from 1940–1969); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 8.7°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Feb (+1.4°C).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Chile
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Chile changing?
Chile is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Chile?
Chile has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. February is typically the warmest month, averaging 13.8°C, while July is the coldest at 4.9°C. Annual precipitation averages around 634mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Chile come from?
Climate data for Chile comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Chile climate data cover?
The Chile climate profile covers Santiago, Valparaíso, Concepción, La Serena and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Chile
How often is the Chile climate update refreshed?
The Chile climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Chile climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Chile climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.