Bolivia Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: La Paz, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Cochabamba, Sucre, and El Alto
Summary
Bolivia experienced exceptional winter heat this month, recording its 3rd warmest July on record with an average temperature of 18.96°C, sitting 2.3°C above its historic baseline. The severe warmth was felt across both the Amazonian lowlands and the high Andes, making the nation South America's biggest atmospheric outlier relative to normal. Crucially, this winter heat surge comes as a moderate El Niño intensifies across the tropical Pacific, with live forecasts tracked at ENSO showing a 93% probability of a Very Strong event peaking between September and November. With dry-season warmth reinforcing soil drying across central and eastern departments, thermal conditions are poised to remain elevated as the region moves through late winter.
This month in numbers
Bolivia logged a national average temperature of 18.96°C, which sits 2.3°C above the 1961-1990 baseline and ranks as the 3rd warmest July in 87 years of records, behind only the record set in 2022. The sharp mid-winter heat mirrored global patterns, as global land temperatures also reached their 3rd warmest July on record at 15.8°C (+1.6°C anomaly). Over the longer term, Bolivia's climate continues to warm steadily, sitting +1.25°C above baseline, with 2025 ending as the 9th warmest year on record at 20.52°C following the record-breaking warmth of 2024.
What changed
The hot month capstone a wider mid-year warming trend. For the May-July 2026 period, Bolivia averaged 18.01°C, representing an anomaly of +0.9°C vs baseline and ranking as the 18th warmest 3-month stretch on record. Despite a brief respite in May, winter heat returned aggressively through June and July. Within the South America regional group at South America, Bolivia stood out as the warmest nation relative to its historical mean, exceeding its continental peers by 0.64°C above the regional average anomaly.
What’s driving change?
Multiple intersecting atmospheric drivers are accelerating warming across Bolivia's diverse terrain. High-altitude Andean ecosystems face rapid warming due to , while the principle continues to elevate continental temperatures across South America. Across the Amazon basin and Gran Chaco, reduced rainfall and have allowed ground conditions to bake under high atmospheric pressure. Compounding these mechanisms is ENSO, where a moderate El Niño (+0.98°C RONI) is currently active. During mid-to-late winter, El Niño conditions historically bring warmer and drier weather to the Amazon basin with roughly 60% reliability, suppressing cloud cover and allowing solar heating to build across dry vegetation.
Looking ahead
Over the next 1 to 3 months, seasonal forecasts indicate that persistent heat and dry conditions are likely to prevail as the ongoing El Niño strengthens towards its spring peak.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Bolivia
Köppen Cwa · TemperateBolivia has a temperate climate (Köppen Cwa: Humid subtropical (dry winter)), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. October is typically the warmest month, averaging 22.5°C, while June is the coldest at 17.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1122mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Bolivia
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Bolivia
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Bolivia
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Bolivia
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Bolivia
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Cwb · TemperateBolivia doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 4.2°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 9× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Feb (-17 mm, -9%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Bolivia
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Bolivia changing?
Bolivia is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Bolivia?
Bolivia has a temperate climate (Köppen Cwa: Humid subtropical (dry winter)), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. October is typically the warmest month, averaging 22.5°C, while June is the coldest at 17.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1122mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Bolivia come from?
Climate data for Bolivia comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Bolivia climate data cover?
The Bolivia climate profile covers La Paz, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Cochabamba, Sucre and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Bolivia
How often is the Bolivia climate update refreshed?
The Bolivia climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Bolivia climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Bolivia climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.