Peru Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Lima, Arequipa, Trujillo, Chiclayo, and Cusco
Summary
Peru recorded its 2nd warmest July on record as unseasonable winter heat gripped the country, driven by a moderate El Niño currently intensifying in the Pacific Ocean at ENSO and forecast to peak at Very Strong in Sep-Nov with a 93% probability. In response to the growing threat of El Niño-driven extreme heat and heavy rainfall impacting food security and infrastructure, Peruvian authorities declared a nationwide state of emergency across hundreds of districts. Temperatures averaged 18.97°C, standing 2.1°C above the 1961-1990 baseline. Unusually high sea-surface temperatures along the Pacific coast disrupted marine ecosystems and local fisheries, with elevated warmth expected to persist over the coming months.
This month in numbers
Peru recorded an average temperature of 18.97°C in July 2026, marking a +2.1°C anomaly and placing 2nd among all corresponding months in 87 years of records, behind only 2023 (19°C). The 3-month period from May to July 2026 averaged 18.73°C, marking a +1.4°C anomaly and ranking as the 4th warmest such season on record. Globally, land temperatures for the month averaged 15.8°C (+1.6°C anomaly), placing 3rd overall, while the global 3-month land average of 14.34°C ranked 2nd warmest on record (+1.5°C anomaly). These figures build upon a long-term warming trend for Peru of +1.01°C above baseline, following a 2025 average temperature of 19.12°C that stood as the country's 9th warmest full year on record.
What changed
The sustained elevated temperatures from May through July reflect a broader pattern of winter warmth across South America, a region tracked at South America where the group average anomaly for the month was +1.62°C. Peru ranked 3rd warmest in its regional group for 1-month anomaly (+2.07°C), sitting 0.45°C warmer than the group mean and trailing only Bolivia (+2.26°C) and Suriname (+2.20°C). This anomalous winter heat contrasts sharply with typical seasonal expectations, as the Southern Hemisphere winter usually brings cooler weather to Peru's coastal regions and Andean highlands.
What’s driving change?
The dominant physical mechanism driving this warmth is ENSO, operating alongside broader climate change where . In the tropical Pacific, a moderate El Niño with a Relative Niño Index anomaly of +0.98°C is rapidly intensifying. This warming weakens typical coastal trade winds and suppresses ocean upwelling, elevating sea-surface temperatures off Peru's shoreline and transferring massive oceanic heat into the lower atmosphere. In addition, and regional atmospheric shifts have disrupted local weather patterns, replacing typical dry winter conditions with unusual warmth.
Looking ahead
According to official forecasts from NOAA, El Niño is expected to peak with a 93% probability at a Very Strong level during the September to November period, maintaining a 100% likelihood through early next year and continuing to elevate the risk of abnormally high temperatures and heavy rainfall across Peru over the next 1-3 months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Peru
Köppen Af · TropicalPeru has a tropical climate (Köppen Af: Tropical rainforest), with little variation in temperature or rainfall across the year. November is typically the warmest month, averaging 19.7°C, while July is the coldest at 18.0°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1517mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Peru
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Peru
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Peru
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Peru
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Peru
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Weakly seasonalKöppen Cfb · TemperatePeru is weakly seasonal - temperature barely changes across the year (1.9°C range) and rainfall is fairly even. The clearest climate signal here is overall warming: monthly temperature has risen in every month.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Sep (+1.5°C). The warmest month has shifted from Feb to Nov.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Peru
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Peru changing?
Peru is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Peru?
Peru has a tropical climate (Köppen Af: Tropical rainforest), with little variation in temperature or rainfall across the year. November is typically the warmest month, averaging 19.7°C, while July is the coldest at 18.0°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1517mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Peru come from?
Climate data for Peru comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Peru climate data cover?
The Peru climate profile covers Lima, Arequipa, Trujillo, Chiclayo and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Peru
How often is the Peru climate update refreshed?
The Peru climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Peru climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Peru climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.