Ecuador Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Guayaquil, Quito, Cuenca, Ambato, and Portoviejo
Summary
Ecuador experienced its hottest July on record in 2026, driven by an intensifying Pacific ocean pattern that brought national heat and wildfire warnings to both the Andes and the Pacific coast. The country recorded an average temperature 2.4°C above its long-term baseline, alongside an all-time record warm May to July period. The relentless heat has coincided with a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec, with unseasonably high temperatures expected to persist into late autumn.
This month in numbers
The month of July 2026 stood out as the warmest on record in 87 years of data, posting a mean temperature of 21.56°C that sat 2.4°C above the 1961-1990 baseline. The seasonal signal was equally unprecedented, with the May to July average reaching 21.69°C (+1.9°C above baseline) to mark the highest 3-month temperature anomaly in the national dataset. Globally, land surface temperatures for the month ranked as the 3rd warmest on record, averaging 15.8°C with a 1.6°C positive anomaly.
What changed
The historic heat in July capped a broader 3-month trend that saw temperatures across Ecuador maintain an average 1.9°C above historical norms. Across global comparisons, Ecuador placed 46th out of 232 tracked countries and regions for its 1-month temperature anomaly, and 59th for its 3-month reading. This extreme warm spell builds on a long-term national warming trend of +1.05°C since the mid-20th century, coming shortly after 2024 set the overall record for Ecuador's warmest year and 2025 finished as the 6th warmest.
What’s driving change?
The primary force shaping South American climate dynamics is ENSO, with a moderate El Niño currently active in the tropical Pacific and monitored live at ENSO. Because environments, the excess warmth from equatorial waters quickly translates into elevated surface temperatures across coastal plains and valleys. In the Andes, further amplifies these thermal anomalies at high altitudes, intensifying low humidity and increasing wildfire hazards across the Sierra.
Looking ahead
With dynamic climate models indicating an 81% probability of a Very Strong El Niño peaking in Oct-Dec, Ecuador faces a high likelihood of continued above-average warmth and disruptive weather patterns over the coming months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Ecuador
Köppen Af · TropicalEcuador has a tropical climate (Köppen Af: Tropical rainforest), with little variation in temperature or rainfall across the year. February is typically the warmest month, averaging 21.8°C, while July is the coldest at 20.3°C. Annual precipitation averages around 2023mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Ecuador
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Ecuador
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Ecuador
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Ecuador
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Ecuador
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Weakly seasonalKöppen Af · TropicalEcuador is weakly seasonal - temperature barely changes across the year (1.5°C range) and rainfall is fairly even. The clearest climate signal here is overall warming: monthly temperature has risen in every month.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: May (+1.6°C). The warmest month has shifted from Mar to Feb.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Ecuador
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Ecuador changing?
Ecuador is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Ecuador?
Ecuador has a tropical climate (Köppen Af: Tropical rainforest), with little variation in temperature or rainfall across the year. February is typically the warmest month, averaging 21.8°C, while July is the coldest at 20.3°C. Annual precipitation averages around 2023mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Ecuador come from?
Climate data for Ecuador comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Ecuador climate data cover?
The Ecuador climate profile covers Guayaquil, Quito, Cuenca, Ambato and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Ecuador
How often is the Ecuador climate update refreshed?
The Ecuador climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Ecuador climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Ecuador climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.