Brazil Climate
Top 5 Cities: São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Brasília, Salvador, and Fortaleza
This month in numbers
Brazil experienced its 6th warmest March on record in 2026, with an average temperature of 25.66°C, an anomaly of +1.1°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. The January–March 2026 period also ranked as the 8th warmest on record, with an anomaly of +0.9°C. Globally, March 2026 was the 2nd warmest March on record for land temperatures, with an anomaly of +1.2°C.
What changed
Brazil's average temperature for the first three months of 2026 continued a warming trend, with the country experiencing its 8th warmest start to the year. This follows 2025 being the warmest year on record for Brazil. The country's latest monthly anomaly of +1.07°C places it 186th out of 234 regions globally for March, indicating that while Brazil is warming, other regions, particularly eight US states, experienced significantly higher temperature anomalies during the same period.
What’s driving change?
The warming trend in Brazil is influenced by several factors, including , which accounts for 40% of the country's greenhouse gas emissions. Brazil is currently in a Neutral ENSO state, with a weekly Niño 3.4 SST anomaly of +0.5°C. However, forecasts suggest a strong probability of El Niño developing in the latter half of 2026, which typically brings warmer and drier conditions to the Amazon basin and northeastern Brazil, increasing drought and fire risk, while southern Brazil may experience wetter conditions. Brazil has also faced significant extreme weather events recently, including a drought event ongoing since September 2022 and a flood event from February to April 2026. The flood event in February 2026, particularly in the Zona da Mata region of Minas Gerais, was severe, with record-breaking rainfall leading to 73 fatalities and displacing thousands. Heavy rainfall also caused widespread flooding in São Paulo in early March. More information on active extreme weather events can be found at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
Forecasters suggest that the transition to El Niño in the second half of 2026 could bring persistent heat, regionalized drought, and increased fire risk across Brazil, with a greater risk of extreme rains, floods, and landslides in the South.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
Loading climate data...
Data Sources
Data Sources for Brazil
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Brazil changing?
Brazil is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Brazil come from?
Climate data for Brazil comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Brazil climate data cover?
The Brazil climate profile covers São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Brasília, Salvador and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Brazil
How often is the Brazil climate update refreshed?
The Brazil climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.