Brazil Climate
Top 5 Cities: São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Brasília, Salvador, and Fortaleza
This month in numbers
Brazil experienced its 9th warmest April on record, with an average temperature of 25.19°C, marking an anomaly of +1.1°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. The period of February to April 2026 was the 6th warmest on record for Brazil, with an average temperature of 25.48°C, an anomaly of +1°C. Globally, April 2026 was the 2nd warmest April for land temperatures, with an anomaly of +1.1°C, while the February-April period also ranked as the 2nd warmest globally for land temperatures, at +1.2°C above the baseline.
What changed
Brazil's recent warmth aligns with a broader trend, as the country recorded its warmest year on record in 2025, with an average temperature of 25.79°C. This continues a long-term warming trend of +1.01°C against the 1961–1990 baseline. Brazil's 1-month temperature anomaly for April 2026 was +1.08°C, making it the warmest in the South America group for the month, and 166th globally out of 234 regions.
What’s driving change?
The warming trend in Brazil is influenced by the broader global climate patterns, including the ongoing shift towards El Niño conditions. While the current ENSO state is Neutral, with an anomaly of +0.11°C, NOAA CPC forecasts indicate a high probability of El Niño developing in the coming months, with an 82% chance for May-July and increasing to 98% by August-October. El Niño typically brings warmer and drier conditions to the Amazon basin, increasing drought stress and fire seasons, and also warmer and drier conditions to Northeast Brazil, posing a major drought risk. Southern Brazil, Uruguay, and Northern Argentina typically experience wetter conditions during El Niño, with a risk of flooding. Brazil has also experienced significant extreme weather events recently, with a drought ongoing since June 2023 and a flood event from late April to mid-May 2026. These represent 100% of the drought and flood events logged for Brazil over the past 12 months, indicating an unusual concentration of these events. Heavy rainfall in April led to significant flooding in northern Brazil, particularly in Belém, and also affected the southern state of São Paulo, causing displacement and damage. Further heavy rains in late April battered Ceará in Brazil's northeast, leading to flooding of the Coreaú River, fatalities, and traffic disruptions. An extratropical cyclone also brought strong winds and heavy rainfall to southern Brazil in early April, with a red alert issued for coastal areas of Rio Grande do Sul. More information on these events can be found at Extreme Weather tracker, and further details on ENSO are available at ENSO tracker.
Looking ahead
The strong forecast for El Niño in the coming months suggests a continuation of warmer and potentially drier conditions for parts of Brazil, particularly the Amazon basin and the Northeast, with an increased risk of drought and fire seasons.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Brazil
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Brazil changing?
Brazil is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Brazil come from?
Climate data for Brazil comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Brazil climate data cover?
The Brazil climate profile covers São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Brasília, Salvador and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Brazil
How often is the Brazil climate update refreshed?
The Brazil climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.