Brazil Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Brasília, Salvador, and Fortaleza
Summary
Brazil experienced an exceptionally warm month as temperatures reached an all-time record for July. The winter dry season brought severe heat alongside a sudden surge in fire activity, with all of Brazil's 5 active wildfires this year occurring in the past month. The warmth aligns with a moderate El Niño currently intensifying in the tropical Pacific, which has a 93% probability of peaking as a Very Strong event in Sep-Nov, with elevated heat and dry spells expected to persist into late spring.
This month in numbers
In July 2026, the national average temperature reached 24.39°C, standing +1.4°C above the 1961–1990 baseline and marking the 1st warmest iteration of the month in 87 years of records. Over the three-month period from May to July 2026, the mean temperature averaged 24.02°C, which sits +0.9°C above average and ranks as the 13th warmest such spell on record. On a global scale, July 2026 was the 3rd warmest edition on record for land temperatures at 15.8°C (+1.6°C anomaly), while the May to July global land mean ranked 2nd highest.
What changed
While Brazil experienced record winter warmth, its monthly anomaly was 0.17°C cooler than the broader South American average, which can be explored across the region at South America. Over the longer term, the country has warmed by +0.94°C compared to its historical baseline. The full year of 2025 finished as the 14th warmest year on record with an average of 25.16°C, remaining below the peak recorded during 2024 when national temperatures averaged 25.79°C.
What’s driving change?
The underlying driver of this pattern is ENSO, with a moderate El Niño currently active in the equatorial Pacific, detailed on our tracker at ENSO. During El Niño phases, suppressed rainfall and higher temperatures frequently create severe fire conditions across central and northern Brazil. These dry conditions are further exacerbated by and localised . All of Brazil's 5 wildfires this year occurred in the past month, tracked live at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
Seasonal climate models indicate that the ongoing El Niño is 93% likely to intensify into a Very Strong event in Sep-Nov, suggesting above-average warmth and reduced rainfall will persist across much of the country through late spring.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Brazil
Köppen Am · TropicalBrazil has a tropical climate (Köppen Am: Tropical monsoon), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. October is typically the warmest month, averaging 26.5°C, while June is the coldest at 23.8°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1650mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Brazil
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Brazil
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Brazil
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Brazil
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Brazil
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Am · TropicalBrazil doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 2.9°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 5× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Apr (+13 mm, +8%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Brazil
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Brazil changing?
Brazil is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Brazil?
Brazil has a tropical climate (Köppen Am: Tropical monsoon), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. October is typically the warmest month, averaging 26.5°C, while June is the coldest at 23.8°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1650mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Brazil come from?
Climate data for Brazil comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Brazil climate data cover?
The Brazil climate profile covers São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Brasília, Salvador and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Brazil
How often is the Brazil climate update refreshed?
The Brazil climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Brazil climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Brazil climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.