US Southwest Climate – June 2026 Update
Top States: Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah
This month in numbers
The US Southwest experienced a significantly warm June 2026, with a temperature anomaly of +2.63°C compared to the 1961–1990 average. The three-month anomaly stands at +2.08°C, and the 12-month rolling anomaly is +3.02°C. This region has been notably warm, with the West and Southwest climate regions experiencing their warmest January-June period on record in 2026.
Hottest & coolest US states
Within the US Southwest, New Mexico US New Mexico was the warmest state in June with an anomaly of +2.95°C, followed closely by Utah US Utah at +2.71°C and Arizona US Arizona at +2.58°C. The broader western US has seen widespread warmth, with some areas experiencing record-breaking temperatures. Nationally, Montana US Montana was among the coolest states, with a 1-month anomaly of -1.12°C.
What's driving change?
A weak El Niño, with an anomaly of +0.98°C, is currently active and is forecast to continue and strengthen through early spring 2027, with a 100% probability for the next several months. While El Niño's influence on summertime weather in the Southwest is typically weak and inconsistent, it can impact early season circulation patterns, potentially leading to a weakened subtropical ridge and onset. The US Southwest has also been grappling with persistent drought conditions, with 90.9% of the region experiencing drought as of mid-June. This ongoing drought, exacerbated by a record-low snowpack during the 2025-2026 winter, has contributed to an elevated wildfire risk across Arizona and New Mexico. The region's warming trend is also influenced by , where dry soils are unable to cool through evaporation, leading to faster heating.
Looking ahead
Seasonal forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of above-normal precipitation for the North American Monsoon this summer, which could help improve short-term drought conditions in the Southwest.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – USA
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance — US states & climate regions (tavg, pcp). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) or 1991–2020 (rainfall). See methodology.
Hottest & Coolest in US Southwest this Month
1-month anomaly vs 1961–1990 across the 4 members we cover. Click a name to open its profile.
Warmest
- 1.🇺🇸New Mexico+2.95°C
- 2.🇺🇸Utah+2.71°C
- 3.🇺🇸Arizona+2.58°C
- 4.🇺🇸Colorado+2.31°C
Coolest
- 1.🇺🇸Colorado+2.31°C
- 2.🇺🇸Arizona+2.58°C
- 3.🇺🇸Utah+2.71°C
- 4.🇺🇸New Mexico+2.95°C
Member States
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – US Southwest
NOAA Climate at a Glance — regional tavg / pcp (monthly absolutes).
US Southwest – Monthly Temperature – All Years
NOAA Climate at a Glance — regional tavg / pcp (monthly absolutes).
Records – US Southwest
NOAA Climate at a Glance - regional tavg / pcp - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsHow spring and autumn have shifted in US Southwest. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (10.8°C, from 1950–1979); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 23.3°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Dec (+2.0°C).
NOAA Climate at a Glance — regional tavg. Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Rainfall & Rain Days – Totals
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for US Southwest
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in US Southwest changing?
US Southwest is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for US Southwest come from?
Climate data for US Southwest comes from authoritative climate datasets including national meteorological services and peer-reviewed reanalyses, refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the US Southwest climate data cover?
The US Southwest climate profile covers Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and surrounding areas. NOAA Southwest - AZ, CO, NM, UT
How often is the US Southwest climate update refreshed?
The US Southwest climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.