Arizona Climate
Top 5 Cities: Phoenix, Tucson, Mesa, Chandler, and Scottsdale
This month in numbers
Arizona experienced its 9th warmest April on record, with an average temperature of 15.94°C, a significant 2.3°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. The period from February to April 2026 was the warmest on record for the state, with an average temperature of 14.91°C, a striking 4.8°C above the baseline. Maximum temperatures for this three-month period also ranked 1st on record, at 23.24°C, indicating consistently hotter conditions. Globally, April 2026 was the 2nd warmest April for land temperatures on record, with the February–April period also ranking as the 2nd warmest on record for global land temperatures.
What changed
Arizona's exceptionally warm start to the year stands in stark contrast to the national picture, with the state experiencing its warmest February–April on record. This trend is part of a broader pattern in the Southwest, as Arizona ranks 3rd warmest among 234 regions globally for its 3-month temperature anomaly, with 9 of the top 10 warmest regions being US states. The state's average temperature for 2025 was 17.19°C, making it the 2nd warmest year on record, and the long-term trend shows a warming of +1.44°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. This persistent warmth has contributed to a worsening drought, with 87% of the state now classified in moderate or greater drought, a 53% increase over the past three months.
What’s driving change?
The prolonged warmth in Arizona is largely driven by and . The record-breaking March saw a community in the Arizona desert hit 43.3°C (110°F), setting a new US record for March, with Phoenix also experiencing its earliest triple-digit temperatures on record. This unseasonable heat rapidly diminished any snowpack that had accumulated, leading to extremely dry soils and heightened wildfire risk. Indeed, the state has seen an unusual concentration of wildfires recently, with four events occurring between May 14 and May 21, representing 100% of the annual total logged for Arizona over the past 12 months. This is an unusual concentration for the season, and fire restrictions have been implemented across various state trust lands. The current ENSO state is Neutral, but forecasts indicate a strong likelihood of El Niño developing in the coming months, with an 82% chance for May-Jul and a 98% chance for Aug-Oct. While El Niño typically brings wetter conditions to the Southwest USA in winter, its impact on summer temperatures is less clear, though it could bring a more active monsoon season with heavier rainfall and increased humidity. For more details on extreme weather events, visit Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
The NOAA CPC 3-month outlook suggests that warmer-than-average temperatures are likely to persist through the spring and summer months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
Loading climate data...
Data Sources
Data Sources for Arizona
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Arizona changing?
Arizona is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Arizona come from?
Climate data for Arizona comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Arizona climate data cover?
The Arizona climate profile covers Phoenix, Tucson, Mesa, Chandler and surrounding areas. Arizona climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the Arizona climate update refreshed?
The Arizona climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.