Montana Climate
Top 5 Cities: Billings, Missoula, Great Falls, Bozeman, and Butte
This month in numbers
Montana experienced its 6th warmest March on record, with an average temperature of 3.22°C, a significant 4.2°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. The three-month period from January to March 2026 was the 2nd warmest on record, with an average temperature of 0.03°C, an anomaly of +4.7°C. Maximum temperatures for the same three-month period also ranked 2nd highest on record, at 6.28°C, which is 5.3°C above average. March precipitation was 44.96 mm, ranking as the 10th wettest March on record.
What changed
Montana's exceptionally warm start to the year stands out, with the January–March average temperature ranking 2nd warmest in 77 years of records. This trend is consistent with a broader pattern across the United States, as 10 of the top 10 warmest one-month anomalies were US states, and 9 of the top 10 warmest three-month anomalies were also US states. Montana itself ranked 7th warmest for the three-month anomaly across all regions tracked. The state is also currently experiencing its sixth consecutive year of abnormally dry to severe drought conditions, with 57% of Montana in moderate to extreme drought as of early April.
What’s driving change?
The persistent warmth in Montana is influenced by several factors, including , where higher-latitude regions tend to warm faster than the tropics. The current ENSO state is Neutral, with an anomaly of +0.11°C for February-April 2026. However, the NOAA CPC forecast indicates a strong likelihood of El Niño conditions developing in the coming months, with a 61% chance for May-July and a 79% chance for June-August. El Niño typically brings warmer and drier winters to Montana, especially in the northern and western parts of the state, though past events have shown variability. The state is currently experiencing two active drought events and one flood event, representing 100% of the annual total for both types of events, an unusual concentration for the region. More information on these events can be found at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
The NOAA CPC 3-month outlook suggests a continued likelihood of above-average temperatures for Montana in the weeks and months ahead, particularly in the southwest.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Montana
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Montana changing?
Montana is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Montana come from?
Climate data for Montana comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Montana climate data cover?
The Montana climate profile covers Billings, Missoula, Great Falls, Bozeman and surrounding areas. Montana climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the Montana climate update refreshed?
The Montana climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.