Montana Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Billings, Missoula, Great Falls, Bozeman, and Butte
Summary
Montana sweltered through its 3rd warmest July on record, driven by a powerful heat dome that pushed temperatures up to 115°F in eastern towns like Glendive and Miles City. The extreme warmth rapidly dried out vegetation, fueling large wildfires and elevating forest fire danger ratings to extreme. Meanwhile, a moderate El Niño in the tropical Pacific is forecast to peak at Very Strong in Sep-Nov, with hot and dry conditions expected to persist across the Northern Rockies into autumn.
This month in numbers
July 2026 brought exceptional heat to Montana, with average temperatures reaching 22.06°C (+3.4°C above the 1961-1990 baseline) in the 3rd warmest mid-summer month in 77 years of recorded data. Average maximum temperatures reached 30.67°C (+3.6°C above average), marking the 5th hottest such period on record. Precipitation lagged at just 28.96 mm, a shortfall of 10.2 mm. Globally, land temperatures recorded their 3rd warmest July on record.
What changed
Over the May to July period, Montana averaged 15.96°C (+1.3°C above baseline), making it the 8th warmest such 3-month season on record. Montana ranked 14th out of 232 tracked global regions for its 1-month temperature anomaly (+3.36°C) and 15th for its 12-month rolling anomaly (+2.69°C). This fits a broader national pattern where 7 of the top 10 warmest 12-month anomalies globally were US states. Within the NOAA Northern Rockies and Plains region, Montana tied with Wyoming as the warmest state relative to baseline, running 0.61°C warmer than the group average (US Northern Rockies Plains).
What’s driving change?
Atmospheric trapped intense warmth over the region, while prevented evaporative cooling. A moderate El Niño (+0.98°C RONI anomaly) is active in the tropical Pacific, as tracked at ENSO. Winter El Niño conditions carry a modest 55% historical tendency toward warmer, drier weather in Montana, reducing snowpack and elevating subsequent summer fire risk. All of Montana's 1 wildfire in our system this year happened in the past month, which is monitored at Extreme Weather tracker. On the ground, major blazes like the Sand Creek Fire burned over 25,000 acres as fire danger reached extreme levels.
Looking ahead
With official forecasts indicating a 93% probability of a Very Strong El Niño peaking in Sep-Nov, seasonal outlooks favour above-average temperatures and lingering dry conditions across the region into autumn.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – USUnited States
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance — US states & climate regions (tavg, pcp), plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Montana
Köppen Dfb · ContinentalMontana has a continental climate (Köppen Dfb: Humid continental - warm summer), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 20.0°C, while February is the coldest at -6.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 470mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Montana
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Heatwave Days – Montana
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Montana
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Monthly Temperature – Montana
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Records – Montana
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Dfb · ContinentalHow spring and autumn have shifted in Montana. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (4.9°C, from 1950–1979); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 28.2°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Jan (+3.9°C).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Montana
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Statewide monthly temperature and precipitation (nClimDiv).
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Montana changing?
Montana is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Montana?
Montana has a continental climate (Köppen Dfb: Humid continental - warm summer), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 20.0°C, while February is the coldest at -6.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 470mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Montana come from?
Climate data for Montana comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Montana climate data cover?
The Montana climate profile covers Billings, Missoula, Great Falls, Bozeman and surrounding areas. Montana climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the Montana climate update refreshed?
The Montana climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Montana climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Montana climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.