US Southeast Climate – July 2026 Update
Top States: Florida, Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina
Summary
The US Southeast experienced a distinctly warm period as summer heatwaves spread across the region, anchored by and record-high nighttime temperatures. Elevated heat stress affected major urban centres and coastal communities alike, while tropical activity began to build across the Atlantic basin with a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Aug-Oct. As atmospheric patterns shift into autumn, warmer conditions are likely to linger across the region over the coming months.
This month in numbers
For July 2026, the US Southeast registered a 1-month temperature anomaly of +1.54°C above the 1961-1990 baseline. Over longer timeframes, the region recorded a 3-month anomaly of +1.07°C and a 12-month rolling figure of +1.15°C, confirming a sustained pattern of elevated regional warmth. Across the global cross-region rankings, this sits within a striking North American signal, where 10 of the top 10 warmest 1-month anomalies worldwide were US states.
Hottest & coolest US states
Within the regional group, South Carolina US South Carolina led the warm anomalies at +1.86°C, closely followed by Virginia US Virginia at +1.70°C and Georgia US Georgia at +1.59°C. North Carolina US North Carolina and Florida also experienced marked warmth, reaching +1.58°C and +1.57°C respectively. Alabama US Alabama was the coolest member of the group, though still well above historical averages at +1.23°C.
What's driving change?
The regional warmth is being heavily influenced by trapped under stalling high pressure, amplified by that allow hot air masses to stagnate. Equatorial Pacific dynamics are also playing a central role, with the ocean currently in a moderate El Niño state at a Relative Niño Index of +1.36°C ENSO. Extreme weather tracked across the region reflects these shifting conditions. All of US Southeast's 1 flood this year has happened in the past month. Separately, all of US Southeast's 1 tropical cyclone this year has happened in the past month, with Tropical Cyclone Lowell-26 monitored on our live map at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
Seasonal outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center indicate a high probability of above-normal temperatures across the US Southeast throughout the autumn, accompanied by a modest tendency toward increased rainfall as ENSO teleconnections strengthen into winter.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – USUnited States
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance — US states & climate regions (tavg, pcp), plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – US Southeast
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
NOAA Climate at a Glance - regional tavg / pcp
Heatwave Days – US Southeast
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived), aggregated by 4BYO across member states. Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Hottest & Coolest in US Southeast this Month
1-month anomaly vs 1961–1990 across the 6 members we cover. Click a name to open its profile.
Warmest
- 1.🇺🇸South Carolina+1.86°C
- 2.🇺🇸Virginia+1.70°C
- 3.🇺🇸Georgia+1.59°C
- 4.🇺🇸North Carolina+1.58°C
- 5.🌴Florida+1.57°C
Coolest
- 1.🇺🇸Alabama+1.23°C
- 2.🌴Florida+1.57°C
- 3.🇺🇸North Carolina+1.58°C
- 4.🇺🇸Georgia+1.59°C
- 5.🇺🇸Virginia+1.70°C
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – US Southeast
NOAA Climate at a Glance — regional tavg / pcp (monthly absolutes).
Monthly Temperature – US Southeast
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
NOAA Climate at a Glance — regional tavg / pcp (monthly absolutes).
Records – US Southeast
NOAA Climate at a Glance - regional tavg / pcp - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsHow spring and autumn have shifted in US Southeast. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (16.8°C, from 1950–1979); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 18.7°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Feb (+3.2°C).
NOAA Climate at a Glance — regional tavg. Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Climate Systems
Loading ENSO tracker…
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for US Southeast
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
US 9-region temperature and precipitation series (1895–present).
US state-level CO₂ emissions and electricity generation mix by fuel source. Energy Information Administration.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in US Southeast changing?
US Southeast is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for US Southeast come from?
Climate data for US Southeast comes from authoritative climate datasets including national meteorological services and peer-reviewed reanalyses, refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the US Southeast climate data cover?
The US Southeast climate profile covers Florida, Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina and surrounding areas. NOAA Southeast - AL, FL, GA, NC, SC, VA
How often is the US Southeast climate update refreshed?
The US Southeast climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the US Southeast climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the US Southeast climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.