Florida Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, and Fort Lauderdale
Summary
Florida recorded its 4th warmest July on record, capped by persistent that produced Miami's longest-ever streak of days above 33°C (91°F) alongside expanding drought across the state. The sweltering conditions coincided with a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec. Daytime high temperatures soared to their 3rd highest level for July in 77 years of records, with elevated heat expected to persist into autumn.
This month in numbers
Florida experienced a scorching month, recording an average temperature of 28.89°C, an anomaly of +1.6°C above the 1961-1990 baseline, making it the 4th warmest July in 77 years of records. Daytime maximum temperatures averaged 34.11°C (+1.3°C anomaly), ranking as the 3rd highest on record for the month. Over the three-month May-July period, average temperatures reached 27.5°C (+1.6°C anomaly), also the 4th warmest such stretch on record, while maximum temperatures averaged 32.92°C to sit 5th highest. Total precipitation in July came in at 166.37 mm, falling 12.7 mm below normal baseline levels.
What changed
The persistent summer heat in Florida reflects a broader warming pattern across the United States and the globe. Global land temperatures reached their 3rd warmest July on record with a +1.6°C anomaly, following a May-July period that ranked as the 2nd warmest globally. Across the NOAA Southeast US region (US Southeast), temperatures ran 1.59°C above normal, with Florida closely tracking its regional peers. Long-term records show Florida's annual climate has warmed by +1.45°C relative to its 1961-1990 baseline, with recent years maintaining elevated baseline heat following the state's 13th warmest year in 2025 (22.33°C).
What’s driving change?
July's oppressive heat was primarily amplified by stalled high-pressure systems creating atmospheric over the region. High humidity and concrete surfaces in major metro areas exacerbated overnight warming via the effect, keeping night-time temperatures record-high and preventing ambient cooling. On a macro scale, the tropical Pacific is currently in a moderate El Niño phase, tracked at ENSO using the Relative Niño Index, which continues to influence atmospheric circulation and broad temperature baselines across North America.
Looking ahead
Seasonal models indicate that above-normal temperatures are likely to persist through late summer and into autumn, while an intensifying El Niño with an 81% probability of peaking as a Very Strong event in Oct-Dec could bring cooler and wetter conditions to Florida by late autumn and winter (ENSO).
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – USUnited States
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance — US states & climate regions (tavg, pcp), plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Florida
Köppen Cfa · TemperateFlorida has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfa: Humid subtropical), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 28.4°C, while January is the coldest at 14.8°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1393mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Florida
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Heatwave Days – Florida
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Florida
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Monthly Temperature – Florida
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Records – Florida
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen Cfa · TemperateFlorida has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±6.6°C) and a wet/dry cycle (3× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Jun (+31 mm, +18%).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Florida
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Statewide monthly temperature and precipitation (nClimDiv).
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Florida changing?
Florida is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Florida?
Florida has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfa: Humid subtropical), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 28.4°C, while January is the coldest at 14.8°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1393mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Florida come from?
Climate data for Florida comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Florida climate data cover?
The Florida climate profile covers Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville and surrounding areas. Sea-level rise, hurricanes and the insurance crisis
How often is the Florida climate update refreshed?
The Florida climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Florida climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Florida climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.