Florida Climate
Top 5 Cities: Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, and Fort Lauderdale
This month in numbers
Florida experienced its 6th warmest March on record, with an average temperature of 20.72°C, an anomaly of +2.8°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. Maximum temperatures in March 2026 were particularly notable, ranking as the 5th highest on record at 27.17°C, also +2.8°C above the baseline. The January–March 2026 period saw the 75th lowest precipitation on record, with only 44.88 mm, a significant deficit of -43.7 mm against the baseline.
What changed
The first three months of 2026 have been exceptionally dry for Florida, with precipitation ranking among the lowest in 77 years of records. This contrasts with a generally warmer national picture, as the global land temperature for February–April 2026 ranked as the 2nd warmest on record. Florida's March average temperature was 0.98°C cooler than the average for the NOAA Southeast US climate region, which experienced a +3.77°C anomaly for the month.
What’s driving change?
Florida is currently experiencing one of its worst droughts in over 25 years, with 100% of the state under some level of drought by late March 2026, and over 70% categorized as "Extreme" or "Exceptional". This severe dryness has been a significant warming driver, contributing to and an elevated wildfire risk. Several wildfires have been active across the state, including the "National Fire" in Big Cypress National Preserve, which burned over 25,700 acres in late February and early March. The lack of significant rainfall has been exacerbated by persistent high-pressure systems. The current ENSO state is Neutral, with a +0.11°C anomaly, but forecasts indicate a strong likelihood of El Niño developing by May–July 2026, with probabilities rising to 87% by July–September 2026. Historically, El Niño typically brings cooler and wetter winters to the Southeast USA, which could offer some relief from the current drought conditions in the coming months ENSO tracker.
Looking ahead
Meteorologists are hopeful that the projected strong El Niño this spring will trigger the consistent rainfall needed to alleviate the severe drought conditions over the summer months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Florida
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Florida changing?
Florida is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Florida come from?
Climate data for Florida comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Florida climate data cover?
The Florida climate profile covers Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville and surrounding areas. Sea-level rise, hurricanes and the insurance crisis
How often is the Florida climate update refreshed?
The Florida climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.