North Carolina Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, Durham, and Winston-Salem
Summary
North Carolina experienced a sweltering start to mid-summer in July 2026, as intense triple-digit heatwaves gave way to heavy soaking rains later in the month. The month finished as the 9th warmest July in 77 years of records, alongside significantly elevated rainfall across the state. Globally, the May to July period marked the 2nd warmest such stretch on record. Tropical Pacific dynamics are currently shaped by a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Sep-Nov, which can be tracked at ENSO, with wetter conditions expected to take hold as autumn approaches.
This month in numbers
In July 2026, statewide average temperatures reached 26.28°C, standing 1.6°C above the 1961-1990 baseline to rank as the 9th warmest on record. Average daytime maximums reached 31.67°C, ranking 19th, while nighttime lows averaged 20.89°C, exceeding normal levels by 2.0°C. Precipitation totalled 170.94 mm, which is 39.2 mm above average, marking the 12th wettest July on record. On a planetary scale, July global land temperatures reached 15.8°C, placing 3rd highest in 87 years of global recording.
What changed
Looking at the three-month stretch from May to July 2026, North Carolina averaged 23.15°C, which is 1.1°C above baseline and ranks as the 19th warmest such period on record. Total rainfall across those three months settled at 353.82 mm, running just 2.2 mm below normal. Regionally, North Carolina tracked closely with the wider Southeast climate region group, ranking 4th warmest among its five state members. Worldwide, global land temperatures over this three-month span averaged 14.34°C, sitting 1.5°C above baseline as the 2nd warmest May-July period on record.
What’s driving change?
The intense heat early in the month was anchored by stalled high-pressure systems known as , which trapped warm air and pushed temperatures into triple digits across central parts of the state. Long-term atmospheric patterns continue to show that , amplifying terrestrial warm spells. Global climate patterns are currently influenced by ENSO, with a moderate El Niño active in the tropical Pacific. All of North Carolina's 1 flood this year happened in the past month, as heavy convective rainfall replaced early heat, which is tracked on our live map at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
Looking into autumn and the coming months, seasonal forecasts indicate elevated chances of above-average temperatures and unsettled precipitation across the Southeast, supported by a 93% probability of El Niño peaking at Very Strong strength between September and November.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – USUnited States
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance — US states & climate regions (tavg, pcp), plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – North Carolina
Köppen Cfa · TemperateNorth Carolina has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfa: Humid subtropical), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 26.0°C, while January is the coldest at 5.1°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1334mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – North Carolina
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Heatwave Days – North Carolina
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – North Carolina
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Monthly Temperature – North Carolina
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Records – North Carolina
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfa · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in North Carolina. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (14.6°C, from 1950–1979); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 20.6°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Feb (+3.3°C).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Data Sources
Data Sources for North Carolina
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Statewide monthly temperature and precipitation (nClimDiv).
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in North Carolina changing?
North Carolina is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in North Carolina?
North Carolina has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfa: Humid subtropical), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 26.0°C, while January is the coldest at 5.1°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1334mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for North Carolina come from?
Climate data for North Carolina comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the North Carolina climate data cover?
The North Carolina climate profile covers Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, Durham and surrounding areas. North Carolina climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the North Carolina climate update refreshed?
The North Carolina climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the North Carolina climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the North Carolina climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.