North Carolina Climate
Top 5 Cities: Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, Durham, and Winston-Salem
This month in numbers
North Carolina experienced its 2nd warmest March on record, with an average temperature of 13.78°C, a significant 4.1°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. Maximum temperatures also ranked 2nd highest, at 21.44°C, an anomaly of +5.2°C. This unseasonable warmth contributed to March being the 4th warmest since 1895 for the state. Conversely, precipitation was notably low, ranking as the 74th driest March on record with only 46.99 mm, a deficit of 65 mm. The period of January to March 2026 also saw the 75th lowest precipitation on record, with 56.05 mm, 48.2 mm below average.
What changed
The recent warmth in North Carolina aligns with a broader national trend, as global land temperatures for March 2026 ranked as the 2nd warmest on record. The state's 1-month temperature anomaly of +4.12°C placed it 33rd globally among 234 regions. The persistent dryness, however, stands in contrast to some areas. North Carolina has been experiencing below-normal rainfall since last autumn, with March marking the 5th driest on record for the state. This has led to the expansion of severe drought across the Coastal Plain and the emergence of extreme drought in parts of the mountains.
What’s driving change?
The significant warming observed in North Carolina this month is influenced by several factors. The current ENSO state is Neutral, with a weekly Niño 3.4 SST anomaly of +0.9°C, though a transition to El Niño is highly likely by May-July 2026, with probabilities increasing to 79% by June-August 2026. ENSO tracker This shift towards El Niño typically brings warmer and drier conditions to the region. The persistent across the state has exacerbated the warming, as dry soils are less able to cool themselves through evaporation. This has contributed to the expansion of drought conditions, with two drought events active in the past 12 months, representing 100% of the annual total, an unusual concentration. Extreme Weather tracker Wildfires also ignited in the Mountains and Foothills in late March, fueled by dry vegetation.
Looking ahead
The NOAA CPC probability forecast suggests a high likelihood of El Niño developing and persisting through at least the end of 2026, which typically brings warmer and drier conditions to North Carolina.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for North Carolina
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in North Carolina changing?
North Carolina is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for North Carolina come from?
Climate data for North Carolina comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the North Carolina climate data cover?
The North Carolina climate profile covers Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, Durham and surrounding areas. North Carolina climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the North Carolina climate update refreshed?
The North Carolina climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.