North Carolina Climate
Top 5 Cities: Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, Durham, and Winston-Salem
This month in numbers
North Carolina experienced its 2nd warmest April on record, with an average temperature of 17.5°C, a significant 3.2°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. Maximum temperatures were particularly striking, ranking 1st all-time for April at 25.06°C, a full 3.7°C warmer than average. This warmth was accompanied by exceptionally dry conditions, as April precipitation was the 74th lowest on record, with a deficit of 52.1 mm compared to the baseline.
What changed
The trend of warmth and dryness extends beyond April. The February–April 2026 period was the 6th warmest on record for average temperature and the 4th warmest for maximum temperatures. Precipitation for this three-month period was the 75th lowest on record, indicating a sustained dry spell. Globally, land temperatures for April 2026 ranked as the 2nd warmest on record, and the February–April period also saw the 2nd warmest global land temperatures, placing North Carolina's warmth within a broader context. North Carolina's 1-month anomaly of +3.20°C places it 32nd warmest out of 234 regions globally, and it was the 2nd warmest in the NOAA Southeast US climate region group this month.
What’s driving change?
The persistent warmth and dryness in North Carolina are being influenced by several factors. The current Neutral ENSO state is forecast to transition to El Niño by May-July 2026, with high confidence for El Niño conditions through the summer and into autumn. While the current Neutral state means muted ENSO influence, the developing El Niño typically brings cooler and wetter conditions to the Southeast USA during winter, but its influence on spring and summer temperatures and precipitation can vary. The region has also been experiencing significant drought conditions, with April being the fifth driest on record since 1895, and much of the state, including coastal and western counties, is currently under severe to exceptional drought. This can exacerbate warming by reducing evaporative cooling. The North Carolina Forest Service lifted a statewide burn ban in early May for most counties due to some rainfall, but drought conditions remain a concern. There have been 4 wildfire events in North Carolina in the past month, representing 100% of the annual total, an unusual concentration for the season. Additionally, 2 drought events and 1 flood event have been logged in the past 12 months, each representing 100% of their respective annual totals, indicating an unusual concentration of these events as well. More information on these events can be found at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
The NOAA CPC forecast for May-July 2026 indicates an 82% chance of El Niño developing, with probabilities rising to 98% by August-October, suggesting a shift towards conditions that typically bring cooler and wetter weather to the Southeast USA during winter months, though the immediate impact on summer is less certain.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for North Carolina
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in North Carolina changing?
North Carolina is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for North Carolina come from?
Climate data for North Carolina comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the North Carolina climate data cover?
The North Carolina climate profile covers Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, Durham and surrounding areas. North Carolina climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the North Carolina climate update refreshed?
The North Carolina climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.