North Carolina Climate – June 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, Durham, and Winston-Salem
This month in numbers
North Carolina experienced a significantly warmer and drier start to summer. The average temperature for April to June 2026 was 20.2°C, an anomaly of +1.6°C above the 1961–1990 baseline, ranking as the 9th warmest such period on record. Maximum temperatures during this three-month span were particularly notable, ranking as the 4th highest on record at 26.96°C, an anomaly of +1.8°C. Precipitation for April to June was exceptionally low, totalling just 72.14 mm, which is 31.1 mm below average and ranks as the 75th driest period out of 77 years on record, placing it in the bottom 5 for precipitation. June 2026 itself saw an average temperature of 24.06°C, ranking 14th warmest, and precipitation of 77.47 mm, ranking 66th driest.
What changed
The past three months have seen North Carolina experiencing significantly warmer and much drier conditions compared to its historical average. This trend contrasts with the global land temperature, which ranked as the 2nd warmest for April-June 2026, indicating a widespread warming trend. North Carolina's 1-month anomaly of +1.37°C for June places it as the warmest within its NOAA Southeast US climate region group.
What’s driving change?
The persistent warmth and lack of rainfall in North Carolina are influenced by a combination of factors. A weak El Niño is currently active, with a weekly Niño 3.4 SST anomaly of +1.8°C as of July 1, 2026, and is forecast to strengthen, with a 100% probability of El Niño continuing through the end of 2026. While El Niño typically brings cooler and wetter winters to the Southeast USA, its summer influence on local temperatures is less significant. However, a strengthening El Niño can lead to increased wind shear in the Atlantic, potentially suppressing tropical storm development and reducing tropical moisture, which could contribute to drier conditions and higher fire activity later in the summer. North Carolina has also experienced an unusual concentration of wildfires recently, with four events occurring between late June and mid-July, representing 100% of the annual total logged for the past 12 months. Additionally, a flood event was logged from May to July, also representing 100% of the annual total. More information on these events can be found at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
The strengthening El Niño is expected to continue through the coming months, with a 100% probability of El Niño conditions persisting through October-December 2026. This could set the stage for better rain chances locally by the end of the year, potentially alleviating the current dry conditions. For more information on ENSO, visit ENSO.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – USA
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance — US states & climate regions (tavg, pcp). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) or 1991–2020 (rainfall). See methodology.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – North Carolina
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
North Carolina – Monthly Temperature – All Years
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Records – North Carolina
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfa · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in North Carolina. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (14.6°C, from 1950–1979); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 20.6°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Feb (+3.3°C).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Rainfall & Precipitation
Rainfall & Rain Days – Totals
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Data Sources
Data Sources for North Carolina
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in North Carolina changing?
North Carolina is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for North Carolina come from?
Climate data for North Carolina comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the North Carolina climate data cover?
The North Carolina climate profile covers Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, Durham and surrounding areas. North Carolina climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the North Carolina climate update refreshed?
The North Carolina climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.