US South Climate – July 2026 Update
Top States: Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Kansas, and Arkansas
Summary
The US South experienced notable warmth during the latest period, with temperatures running well above historical norms across the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. Regional conditions coincided with a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Aug-Oct with a 77% probability, pointing toward continued elevated temperatures over the coming months.
This month in numbers
US South registered a 1-month temperature anomaly of +1.23°C above the 1961-1990 baseline, marking an unusually warm period for the region. Over longer timeframes, the 3-month anomaly reached +1.05°C, while the 12-month rolling anomaly stood at +2.47°C. In the global context, US states dominated the highest anomalies, with 10 of the top 10 warmest 1-month anomalies worldwide occurring in US states.
Hottest & coolest US states
The strongest warmth was concentrated in the eastern portion of the group, where US Mississippi recorded the highest 1-month anomaly at +1.63°C, followed by US Arkansas at +1.48°C and US Oklahoma at +1.35°C. By contrast, US Kansas recorded the lowest anomaly in the group, though it still remained warm at +0.99°C.
What's driving change?
Atmospheric patterns across North America were shaped by ENSO, where a moderate El Niño currently holds a 3-month Relative Niño Index value of +1.36°C, with official forecasts showing a 100% probability of El Niño persisting through coming seasons. High-pressure built over the southern tier, while across interior areas limited evaporative cooling during afternoon peaks. Additionally, all of US South's 1 flood this year has happened in the past month, which is tracked on our live map at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
Seasonal outlooks favour above-average temperatures continuing across the region over the next 1-3 months, with El Niño expected to influence storm tracks as autumn approaches.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – USUnited States
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance — US states & climate regions (tavg, pcp), plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – US South
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
NOAA Climate at a Glance - regional tavg / pcp
Heatwave Days – US South
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived), aggregated by 4BYO across member states. Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Hottest & Coolest in US South this Month
1-month anomaly vs 1961–1990 across the 6 members we cover. Click a name to open its profile.
Warmest
- 1.🇺🇸Mississippi+1.63°C
- 2.🇺🇸Arkansas+1.48°C
- 3.🇺🇸Oklahoma+1.35°C
- 4.🇺🇸Louisiana+1.13°C
- 5.🤠Texas+1.11°C
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – US South
NOAA Climate at a Glance — regional tavg / pcp (monthly absolutes).
Monthly Temperature – US South
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
NOAA Climate at a Glance — regional tavg / pcp (monthly absolutes).
Records – US South
NOAA Climate at a Glance - regional tavg / pcp - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsHow spring and autumn have shifted in US South. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (16.6°C, from 1950–1979); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 22.5°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Mar (+2.6°C).
NOAA Climate at a Glance — regional tavg. Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Climate Systems
Loading ENSO tracker…
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for US South
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
US 9-region temperature and precipitation series (1895–present).
US state-level CO₂ emissions and electricity generation mix by fuel source. Energy Information Administration.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in US South changing?
US South is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for US South come from?
Climate data for US South comes from authoritative climate datasets including national meteorological services and peer-reviewed reanalyses, refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the US South climate data cover?
The US South climate profile covers Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Kansas and surrounding areas. NOAA South - AR, KS, LA, MS, OK, TX
How often is the US South climate update refreshed?
The US South climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the US South climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the US South climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.