US South Climate – March 2026 Update
Top States: Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Kansas, and Arkansas
This month in numbers
The US South experienced a significantly warm month, with a 1-month anomaly of +5.46°C above the 1961–1990 average. The 3-month anomaly stands at +4.50°C, and the 12-month rolling anomaly is +2.95°C. This places the US South among the warmest regions globally, with all 10 of the top 10 warmest 1-month anomalies across all tracked regions being US states.
Hottest & coolest US states
Oklahoma climate page led the region with a striking 1-month anomaly of +6.15°C, followed closely by Texas climate page at +5.74°C and Kansas climate page at +5.63°C. All states in the US South experienced significantly warmer than average conditions, with Louisiana climate page recording the "coolest" anomaly at +4.24°C, still a substantial increase.
What's driving change?
The current ENSO state is Neutral, with an anomaly of +0.11°C for February-April 2026. However, the forecast indicates a shift towards El Niño, with a 61% probability for May-July and a 79% probability for June-August. This transition could influence future temperature and precipitation patterns across the region ENSO tracker. The US South, particularly the Southeast, has been grappling with widespread and intense drought conditions, with 96.83% of the Southeast experiencing moderate to exceptional drought (D1-D4) as of April 16, 2026. This marks the largest area of drought for the Southeast since records began in 2000. This persistent dryness, exacerbated by warmer-than-normal temperatures, is a significant warming driver, leading to and increased wildfire risk. March 2026 also saw an unprecedented heatwave across the contiguous US, with the South region experiencing its warmest March on record, more than 10°F above average. This extreme heat was attributed to a strong, slow-moving heat dome, and attribution studies suggest such events would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change.
Looking ahead
Drought conditions are expected to persist across much of the western contiguous US in May, with some improvement likely across portions of the southern Plains and Deep South.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
Climate Map – USA
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance — US states & climate regions (tavg, pcp). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) or 1991–2020 (rainfall). See methodology.
Temperature – Average
US South – Monthly Temperature – All Years
Each line represents one year of monthly temperature in °C.
NOAA Climate at a Glance — regional tavg / pcp (monthly absolutes).
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsHow spring and autumn have shifted in US South. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (16.6°C, from 1950–1979); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 22.5°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Mar (+2.6°C).
NOAA Climate at a Glance — regional tavg.
Rainfall & Rain Days – Totals
Member States (6)
Hottest & Coolest in US South this Month
1-month anomaly vs 1961–1990 across the 6 members we cover. Click a name to open its profile.
Warmest
- 1.🇺🇸Arkansas+3.31°C
- 2.🇺🇸Kansas+3.02°C
- 3.🇺🇸Oklahoma+2.91°C
- 4.🇺🇸Mississippi+2.75°C
- 5.🤠Texas+2.48°C
Coolest
- 1.🇺🇸Louisiana+2.37°C
- 2.🤠Texas+2.48°C
- 3.🇺🇸Mississippi+2.75°C
- 4.🇺🇸Oklahoma+2.91°C
- 5.🇺🇸Kansas+3.02°C
Data Sources
- NOAA Climate at a Glance — Regional time series · NOAA code 106 · Open at NOAA
- Two-baseline model — comparison baseline 1961–1990; native baseline 1901–2000. Methodology →
Data Sources
Data Sources for US South
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in US South changing?
US South is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for US South come from?
Climate data for US South comes from authoritative climate datasets including national meteorological services and peer-reviewed reanalyses, refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the US South climate data cover?
The US South climate profile covers Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Kansas and surrounding areas. NOAA South - AR, KS, LA, MS, OK, TX
How often is the US South climate update refreshed?
The US South climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.