Texas Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, and El Paso
Summary
Texas experienced a warm, wet mid-summer period, with temperatures ranking as the 17th highest May-to-July on record. Severe flash flooding swept through parts of the Texas Hill Country following torrential rainfall, before high pressure brought intense heatwaves and expanding dry conditions to much of the state. Globally, the three-month period was the 2nd warmest on record, highlighting widespread planetary warmth. The regional weather pattern was influenced by a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec, with cooler and wetter conditions expected as autumn approaches.
This month in numbers
The latest month recorded an average temperature of 28.89°C, standing 1.1°C above the 1961-1990 baseline to rank as the 20th warmest July in records dating back to 1950. Maximum daily temperatures averaged 35.22°C, making it the 26th warmest on record. The three-month May-to-July average reached 26.55°C, making it the 17th warmest such period in state history. Rainfall for the month totalled 69.09 mm, which is 12.5 mm above average and ranks as the 22nd wettest July on record, while the three-month rainfall total of 263.91 mm ranked 23rd wettest. On a global scale, land temperatures reached 1.6°C above baseline, making it the 3rd warmest July ever recorded, while the May-to-July season ranked 2nd warmest globally.
What changed
Over the past 12 months, Texas sits 14th out of 232 regions globally for temperature anomaly, averaging 2.70°C above baseline. This reflects a broader pattern where seven of the ten warmest 12-month rolling anomalies worldwide occurred in US states. Within its regional group in the NOAA South US climate division, accessible at US South, Texas ran 0.17°C cooler than the group average for the month, ranking 5th among six member states. Over the longer term, Texas has warmed by 1.50°C against its 1961-1990 baseline, coming off its 4th warmest full year on record in 2025.
What’s driving change?
The region's climate trajectory is currently influenced by a moderate El Niño in the tropical Pacific, where the sea surface temperature anomaly reached +0.98°C on the Relative Niño Index, with live developments tracked at ENSO. Heavy rainfall earlier in the season triggered localised river flooding in central Texas before persistent high-pressure stalled over the southern United States, trapping hot air and driving afternoon temperatures into triple digits. further accelerated local heating in areas where surface moisture evaporated rapidly, intensifying heat stress across central and southern counties.
Looking ahead
Seasonal climate models indicate an 81% probability of a Very Strong El Niño developing between October and December, which historically increases the likelihood of cooler and wetter conditions across Texas during the autumn and winter months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – USUnited States
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance — US states & climate regions (tavg, pcp), plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Texas
Köppen Cfa · TemperateTexas has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfa: Humid subtropical), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 28.9°C, while January is the coldest at 8.4°C. Annual precipitation averages around 708mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Texas
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Heatwave Days – Texas
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Texas
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Monthly Temperature – Texas
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Records – Texas
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfa · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in Texas. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (18.0°C, from 1950–1979); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 20.9°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Mar (+2.6°C).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Texas
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Statewide monthly temperature and precipitation (nClimDiv).
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Texas changing?
Texas is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Texas?
Texas has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfa: Humid subtropical), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 28.9°C, while January is the coldest at 8.4°C. Annual precipitation averages around 708mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Texas come from?
Climate data for Texas comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Texas climate data cover?
The Texas climate profile covers Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio and surrounding areas. Wind energy giant, grid stress and extreme heat
How often is the Texas climate update refreshed?
The Texas climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Texas climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Texas climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.