Arkansas Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Little Rock, Fort Smith, Fayetteville, Springdale, and Jonesboro
Summary
Arkansas experienced its 10th warmest July on record as temperatures reached 1.5°C above the long-term baseline. All of Arkansas's 3 wildfires this year happened in the past month, fuelled by expanding drought and midsummer heat. Beyond local conditions, global land temperatures hit their 3rd warmest July on record while a moderate El Niño, forecast to peak at Very Strong in Sep-Nov, continues to build in the Pacific, with warm and dry risks persisting through late summer.
This month in numbers
July 2026 delivered an average temperature of 28.17°C, standing 1.5°C above the 1961-1990 baseline to rank 10th warmest on record. Daytime maximums averaged 33.83°C, placing 17th highest in 77 years of data. Precipitation fell to 71.37 mm, 22.4 mm below average to rank 60th wettest. May-July average temperatures reached 24.85°C, ranking 14th warmest on record. Globally, land surface temperatures for the month ranked 3rd warmest on record, while the May-July global land average ranked 2nd.
What changed
The hot summer follows an unusually warm spring in Arkansas, where March and April ran 5.4°C and 3.3°C above baseline respectively. After May brought temporary relief with near-average maximums, heat resumed through June and July. This aligns with broader trends in the South US climate region, where Arkansas ranked as the 2nd warmest state this month behind Mississippi. Long term, state temperatures have warmed 1.15°C against the 1961-1990 baseline, with 2025 standing 7th warmest overall.
What’s driving change?
Regional heat and drying have been amplified by and , as rainfall deficits limit evaporative cooling. All of Arkansas's 3 wildfires this year happened in the past month as dry brush spread fire risk; active incidents across the state are tracked on our live map at Extreme Weather tracker. Atmospheric patterns are also influenced by a moderate El Niño in the tropical Pacific, tracked at ENSO. While summer teleconnections vary, El Niño typically tilts southeastern US winters cooler and wetter, though historical signal reliability here is modest at roughly 55 percent.
Looking ahead
With official forecasts showing a 93 percent probability of a Very Strong El Niño peaking in Sep-Nov, outlooks favour above-normal temperatures and lingering drought risks across Arkansas through late summer and into autumn.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – USUnited States
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance — US states & climate regions (tavg, pcp), plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Arkansas
Köppen Cfa · TemperateArkansas has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfa: Humid subtropical), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 27.3°C, while January is the coldest at 4.7°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1410mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Arkansas
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Heatwave Days – Arkansas
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Arkansas
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Monthly Temperature – Arkansas
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Records – Arkansas
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfa · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in Arkansas. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (15.6°C, from 1950–1979); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 23.2°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Mar (+2.2°C).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Arkansas
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Statewide monthly temperature and precipitation (nClimDiv).
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Arkansas changing?
Arkansas is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Arkansas?
Arkansas has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfa: Humid subtropical), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 27.3°C, while January is the coldest at 4.7°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1410mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Arkansas come from?
Climate data for Arkansas comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Arkansas climate data cover?
The Arkansas climate profile covers Little Rock, Fort Smith, Fayetteville, Springdale and surrounding areas. Arkansas climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the Arkansas climate update refreshed?
The Arkansas climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Arkansas climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Arkansas climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.