Arkansas Climate
Top 5 Cities: Little Rock, Fort Smith, Fayetteville, Springdale, and Jonesboro
This month in numbers
Arkansas experienced its warmest April on record, with an average temperature of 19.33°C, marking an anomaly of +3.3°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. This not only made it the 1st warmest April in 77 years of records but also contributed to the warmest February–April period on record, with an average temperature of 15°C, an anomaly of +4.2°C. Maximum temperatures for April also ranked high, at 4th warmest on record, reaching 25.33°C, which is +2.8°C above the baseline. Globally, April 2026 was the 2nd warmest April for land temperatures on record.
What changed
The past three months (February–April 2026) have been exceptionally warm for Arkansas, ranking as the warmest such period in 77 years of records. This trend is significantly warmer than the national average for the US, which saw an April anomaly of +1.9°C compared to Arkansas's +3.3°C. Arkansas's 3-month anomaly of +4.21°C places it 13th warmest out of 234 regions globally, with 9 of the top 10 warmest regions being US states, indicating a striking concentration of warmth across the central and southern US. Precipitation for the February–April period was notably low, ranking as the 71st driest in 77 years, with a deficit of 35.6 mm.
What’s driving change?
The persistent warmth and dryness in Arkansas are influenced by several factors. The region has been experiencing significant drought conditions, with approximately 100% of Arkansas under active drought as of May 19, 2026, including areas of moderate to exceptional drought. This prolonged dry spell, which has been impacting the Lower Mississippi region since August 2025, has led to over a foot less rain than expected in Arkansas between August 2025 and April 2026. is likely playing a role, as dry soils cannot cool themselves through evaporation, leading to faster warming. Additionally, the forecast indicates a strong likelihood of El Niño developing in the coming months, with an 82% chance for May–July and a 98% chance for August–October. While the current ENSO state is neutral, the transition to El Niño typically brings cooler and wetter conditions to the Southeast USA during winter, but its influence during the warmer months can vary. Arkansas has also seen an unusual concentration of extreme weather events recently, with four wildfires, two drought events, and one flood event occurring in the last month, representing 100% of the annual total for each type of event. More information on these events can be found at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
The seasonal drought outlook for May through August 2026 suggests that while some improvement is expected, widespread removal of drought in the region is unlikely.
Sources:
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Arkansas
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Arkansas changing?
Arkansas is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Arkansas come from?
Climate data for Arkansas comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Arkansas climate data cover?
The Arkansas climate profile covers Little Rock, Fort Smith, Fayetteville, Springdale and surrounding areas. Arkansas climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the Arkansas climate update refreshed?
The Arkansas climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.