Arkansas Climate
Top 5 Cities: Little Rock, Fort Smith, Fayetteville, Springdale, and Jonesboro
This month in numbers
March 2026 was exceptionally warm in Arkansas, ranking as the 2nd warmest March on record in 77 years, with an average temperature of 16.17°C, a significant 5.5°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. Maximum temperatures also reached their 2nd highest on record for March, at 23.22°C, an anomaly of +6.2°C. Looking at the first three months of the year, January–March 2026 was the 3rd warmest such period on record, with an average temperature of 9.87°C, 3.4°C above the baseline. This period also saw the 2nd highest maximum temperatures on record. In contrast, precipitation for January–March 2026 was notably low, ranking as the 75th driest in 77 years, with a deficit of 46.4 mm compared to the average.
What changed
Arkansas experienced a significantly warmer and drier start to the year compared to its historical averages. The state's 1-month anomaly of +5.46°C for March placed it as the 13th warmest out of 234 regions globally, and 4th warmest within its NOAA South US climate region. This regional warming trend is part of a broader pattern, as 10 of the top 10 warmest regions globally for March were US states. The persistent dryness is particularly concerning, with two drought events active in the past 12 months, representing 100% of the annual total, an unusual concentration.
What’s driving change?
The pronounced warmth and dryness in Arkansas are occurring during a Neutral ENSO phase, with a shift towards El Niño strongly forecast for the coming months, which typically brings warmer and drier conditions to the southern US. The region has also experienced active extreme weather, with two drought events ongoing since August 2025 and a flood event in April 2026. March saw strong storms and heavy rain at the beginning of the month, with some areas experiencing flash flooding and an EF-2 tornado in Nevada County on March 7, causing damage and injuries. Despite these rainfall events, severe drought conditions persisted across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas through March.
Looking ahead
The forecast for the coming months suggests a likely transition to an El Niño phase by May–July, with an increasing probability of El Niño conditions continuing through the summer and early autumn.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Arkansas
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Arkansas changing?
Arkansas is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Arkansas come from?
Climate data for Arkansas comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Arkansas climate data cover?
The Arkansas climate profile covers Little Rock, Fort Smith, Fayetteville, Springdale and surrounding areas. Arkansas climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the Arkansas climate update refreshed?
The Arkansas climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.