Oceania Climate – March 2026 Update
Top 5 Countries: Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Fiji, and Solomon Islands
This month in numbers
Oceania experienced a significantly warmer March, with a 1-month anomaly of +0.55°C compared to the 1961–1990 average. The 3-month anomaly stands at +0.72°C, and the 12-month rolling anomaly (April 2025 – March 2026) is +0.75°C. Globally, March 2026 tied as the second-warmest March on record, with all top 10 warmest March global temperature departures since 2015. Oceania, while warmer than average, did not rank among the top 10 warmest regions globally for the month.
Hottest & coolest countries
Within Oceania, New Zealand (climate page) recorded a striking +1.90°C anomaly for March, making it the warmest country in the region. Australia (climate page) also experienced above-average temperatures, with an anomaly of +0.32°C.
What's driving change?
The current ENSO state is Neutral, with an anomaly of +0.11°C for February-April 2026 (ENSO tracker). However, there is a strong probability of El Niño developing in the coming months, with a 61% chance for May-July and increasing to 87% by July-September. This shift towards El Niño conditions is a significant warming driver, as El Niño events typically contribute to higher global temperatures. March also saw a marine heatwave stretching from eastern Papua New Guinea to northern New Zealand, which, while decreasing in intensity, contributed to regional warmth. Another marine heatwave in the central Pacific is increasing in size and intensity. Tropical Cyclone Narelle made landfall multiple times in Australia during March, bringing heavy rainfall, strong winds, and flash flooding to affected areas.
Looking ahead
The strong probability of El Niño developing in the coming months suggests that Oceania could experience continued warmer-than-average conditions in the weeks and months ahead.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
Temperature – Average
Oceania – Monthly Temperature – All Years
Each line represents one year of monthly temperature in °C.
4BYO continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of member country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS).
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsHow spring and autumn have shifted in Oceania. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (15.6°C, from 1941–1970); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 11.9°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Jul (+1.4°C).
4BYO continent aggregate · OWID/CRU TS country monthly temperatures.
Explore Countries on this Continent
This page shows the NOAA continental series. To browse country-level pages within Oceania, use the countries tab on the Climate Updates hub and filter by continent.
Open Climate Updates → CountriesHottest & Coolest in Oceania this Month
1-month anomaly vs 1961–1990 across the 2 members we cover. Click a name to open its profile.
Warmest
- 1.🇳🇿New Zealand+1.90°C
- 2.🇦🇺Australia+0.32°C
Coolest
- 1.🇦🇺Australia+0.32°C
- 2.🇳🇿New Zealand+1.90°C
Data Sources
- NOAA Climate at a Glance — continental land temperature · Open at NOAA
- Two-baseline model — comparison baseline 1961–1990; native baseline 1901-2000. Methodology →
Data Sources
Data Sources for Oceania
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Oceania changing?
Oceania is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Oceania come from?
Climate data for Oceania comes from authoritative climate datasets including national meteorological services and peer-reviewed reanalyses, refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Oceania climate data cover?
The Oceania climate profile covers Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Fiji and surrounding areas. Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific - continental temperature trends
How often is the Oceania climate update refreshed?
The Oceania climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.