Oceania Climate – May 2026 Update
Top 5 Countries: Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Fiji, and Solomon Islands
This month in numbers
Oceania experienced a significantly warmer May, with a 1-month temperature anomaly of +0.59°C above the 1961–1990 average. The 3-month anomaly also stood at +0.59°C, while the 12-month rolling anomaly was +0.77°C. Globally, May 2026 was the second-warmest May on record, trailing only May 2024. Oceania's warmth contributed to a global picture where above-average temperatures spanned most land and ocean surfaces.
Hottest & coolest countries
Within Oceania, New Zealand recorded a particularly warm May, with an anomaly of +1.71°C. Australia also experienced above-average temperatures at +0.39°C. Tasmania, Victoria, and New South Wales in Australia all had their second-warmest May on record since 1910, with some areas experiencing daily maximum temperatures 8 to 12°C above average at the start of the month.
What's driving change?
The warming trend across Oceania is strongly influenced by the developing El Niño phenomenon. The current ENSO state is Neutral, with an anomaly of +0.48°C, but weekly Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures are already at +1.5°C. Forecasts indicate a 97% probability of El Niño developing in May-July 2026, with probabilities remaining exceptionally high through the end of the year, reaching 100% by August-September-October. This shift to El Niño conditions is expected to bring higher temperatures and an elevated risk of bushfires and drought to Australia, while also contributing to marine heatwaves and coral bleaching. The broader global context of also plays a role in regional temperature anomalies.
Looking ahead
The strong likelihood of a developing El Niño suggests that warmer and drier conditions are probable for parts of Oceania in the coming months, with some models even forecasting a very strong El Niño event.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Temperature anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Hottest & Coolest in Oceania this Month
1-month anomaly vs 1961–1990 across the 2 members we cover. Click a name to open its profile.
Warmest
- 1.🇳🇿New Zealand+1.71°C
- 2.🇦🇺Australia+0.39°C
Coolest
- 1.🇦🇺Australia+0.39°C
- 2.🇳🇿New Zealand+1.71°C
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Oceania
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of member country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS).
Oceania – Monthly Temperature – All Years
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of member country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS).
Records – Oceania
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of member country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS).
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfb · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in Oceania. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (15.6°C, from 1941–1970); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 11.9°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Jul (+1.4°C).
4byo continent aggregate · OWID/CRU TS country monthly temperatures & rainfall. Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Oceania
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Continental land temperature anomaly. NOAA NCEI national & continental time series.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Oceania changing?
Oceania is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Oceania come from?
Climate data for Oceania comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Oceania climate data cover?
The Oceania climate profile covers Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Fiji and surrounding areas. Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific - continental temperature trends
How often is the Oceania climate update refreshed?
The Oceania climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.