New Zealand Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Hamilton, and Tauranga
Summary
New Zealand has capped off an exceptionally mild start to winter, with the May-July period ranking as the country's 5th warmest on record. While heavy rain early in the month triggered damaging floods and forced local states of emergency across eastern districts such as Waitaki, Kaikōura, and Wairoa, the overall seasonal trend remained strikingly warm. This pattern is unfolding alongside a moderate El Niño that is intensifying across the tropical Pacific and has a 93% probability of reaching Very Strong status in September-November, with stronger westerly winds and dry eastern conditions expected to build through late spring.
This month in numbers
The May-July average temperature reached 7.66°C, marking a +1.6°C anomaly above the 1961–1990 baseline and making it the 5th warmest such period in 87 years of records. The latest month recorded an average temperature of 5.96°C, sitting +1.1°C above baseline as the 16th warmest July on record. Globally, land surface temperatures for the month ranked 3rd warmest on record with a +1.6°C anomaly, while the global May-July season was the 2nd warmest ever recorded at +1.5°C above baseline. Long-term records show New Zealand has warmed by +1.02°C against baseline averages, coming off its 4th warmest full year on record in 2025 at 11.08°C.
What changed
The three-month period was heavily influenced by an extraordinary winter opening, driven by a warm month in June that sat +2.3°C above historical averages before anomalies eased slightly. Within the regional context, New Zealand stood out as the warmest nation across the Oceania group for the latest month, running 0.23°C above the regional average anomaly.
What’s driving change?
The persistent winter warmth has been driven by recurring atmospheric that drew subtropical air masses southward, combined with the background influence of ENSO in the tropical Pacific. A moderate El Niño is currently active across the ocean basin, tracked on our live page at ENSO, which historically shifts wind patterns over the Southwest Pacific towards persistent westerlies.
Looking ahead
Seasonal climate forecasts indicate that as El Niño reaches its predicted peak in the coming months, New Zealand can expect stronger west-to-southwesterly winds, bringing a heightened risk of dry spells for eastern and northern areas alongside wetter conditions in the south and west through the remainder of the year.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – New Zealand
Köppen Cfb · TemperateNew Zealand has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. January is typically the warmest month, averaging 15.8°C, while July is the coldest at 6.2°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1601mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – New Zealand
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – New Zealand
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – New Zealand
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – New Zealand
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – New Zealand
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfb · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in New Zealand. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (9.3°C, from 1940–1969); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 10.3°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Jun (+2.3°C). The warmest month has shifted from Feb to Jan.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for New Zealand
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in New Zealand changing?
New Zealand is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in New Zealand?
New Zealand has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. January is typically the warmest month, averaging 15.8°C, while July is the coldest at 6.2°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1601mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for New Zealand come from?
Climate data for New Zealand comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the New Zealand climate data cover?
The New Zealand climate profile covers Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Hamilton and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for New Zealand
How often is the New Zealand climate update refreshed?
The New Zealand climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the New Zealand climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the New Zealand climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.