Australia Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide
Summary
Australia experienced a milder July than usual, recording an average temperature of 14.79°C, which sits 0.7°C above the long-term baseline as the 27th warmest July on record. While winter temperatures remained moderate, fire activity escalated sharply as all of Australia's 10 wildfires this year have happened in the past month. Beneath these seasonal conditions lies a rapidly shifting Pacific pattern, with a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec. The setup points toward an intensifying climate threat, with warmer and drier conditions expected to take hold across eastern and northern regions in the coming months.
This month in numbers
July 2026 brought a nation-wide average temperature of 14.79°C for Australia, placing it 0.7°C above the 1961–1990 baseline as the 27th warmest month in 87 years of record-keeping. The May–July 3-month period similarly ranked as the 21st warmest on record with a 16.29°C average (+0.5°C anomaly). On the global stage, however, heat was far more pronounced: global land temperatures for July reached 15.8°C (+1.6°C anomaly), making it the 3rd warmest July on record globally, while the May–July global average was the 2nd warmest May–July period ever recorded at 14.34°C (+1.5°C anomaly).
What changed
Although recent months have seen relatively muted anomalies compared to preceding years, Australia's long-term trend remains firmly upward, with a warming rate of +0.68°C above baseline and 2025 ranking as the 5th warmest year on record. Over the past 12 months, Australia's rolling temperature anomaly of +0.57°C ranked 227th out of 232 regions globally, placing it among the 6th lowest anomalies worldwide during a year dominated by northern hemisphere heat records. Across the broader Oceania region, Australia ran 0.23°C cooler than the group average of +0.90°C, trailing New Zealand's +1.13°C monthly anomaly.
What’s driving change?
The primary engine behind Australia's evolving weather pattern is ENSO, with a moderate El Niño active in the tropical Pacific as measured by the Relative Niño Index. In eastern Australia, El Niño historically increases the likelihood of warmer and drier conditions with roughly 75% reliability, a shift that can trigger as parched ground warms more rapidly under direct sunlight. Fire risks have risen alongside these conditions, as all of Australia's 10 wildfires this year have happened in the past month, tracked live on our map at Extreme Weather tracker. You can follow the ongoing tropical Pacific warming cycle at ENSO.
Looking ahead
Seasonal climate outlooks indicate an 81% probability that the current El Niño will intensify into a Very Strong event peaking during the October to December period, favouring hotter and drier conditions across eastern and northern Australia as spring and summer approach.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Australia
Köppen BSh · AridAustralia has a arid climate (Köppen BSh: Hot steppe), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. January is typically the warmest month, averaging 28.7°C, while July is the coldest at 15.0°C. Annual precipitation averages around 477mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Australia
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Australia
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Australia
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Australia
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Australia
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen BSh · AridAustralia has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±6.8°C) and a wet/dry cycle (5× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Mar (+9 mm, +16%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Australia
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Australia changing?
Australia is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Australia?
Australia has a arid climate (Köppen BSh: Hot steppe), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. January is typically the warmest month, averaging 28.7°C, while July is the coldest at 15.0°C. Annual precipitation averages around 477mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Australia come from?
Climate data for Australia comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Australia climate data cover?
The Australia climate profile covers Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and surrounding areas. Bushfires, reef bleaching and record temperatures
How often is the Australia climate update refreshed?
The Australia climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Australia climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Australia climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.