Europe Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Countries: Russia, Germany, France, United Kingdom, and Italy
Summary
Europe suffered through extraordinary, unrelenting heat during July 2026, extending a brutal midsummer streak that dried major rivers and fuelled severe wildfires across western and southern territories. The prolonged spell exacerbated drought, forced widespread water restrictions, and contributed to thousands of excess heat deaths across the continent, while intense marine heatwaves scorched the Mediterranean and North Atlantic. In the tropical Pacific, a moderate El Niño continues to intensify and is forecast to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec, before high pressure and elevated temperatures persist across much of Europe through late summer.
This month in numbers
Europe recorded a monthly average temperature anomaly of +1.79°C above the 1961-1990 baseline in July 2026, marking another unusually warm period for the group. The 3-month anomaly stood at +1.77°C, while the 12-month rolling anomaly reached +1.62°C. Across global rankings, European countries dominated the 1-month warmth chart, claiming 9 of the top 10 highest anomalies worldwide.
Hottest & coolest countries
Land temperatures reached extraordinary extremes across Central and Western Europe. Switzerland () recorded the highest national anomaly at +5.44°C above baseline, followed closely by Spain () at +4.92°C, France () at +4.63°C, Italy () at +4.42°C, and Austria () at +4.40°C. In contrast, eastern Mediterranean and northern regions were less extreme, with Cyprus () logging the group's lowest anomaly at +0.63°C.
What's driving change?
Persistent high-pressure trapped hot air masses over the continent for weeks, while worsened summer land temperatures as parched grounds lost their ability to cool through evaporation. At sea, record-breaking ocean temperatures in the western Mediterranean and North Atlantic further primed the regional atmosphere for persistent warmth. Globally, ENSO (ENSO) is in a moderate El Niño state with a Relative Niño Index anomaly of +0.98°C, which is 100% likely to persist through late autumn and carries an 81% probability of reaching Very Strong intensity in Oct-Dec.
Looking ahead
Seasonal climate outlooks indicate that warmer-than-average conditions and elevated heat risks are likely to persist across southern and central Europe through late summer and into autumn.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Europe
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of member country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS); precipitation: GPCC (DWD).
Heatwave Days – Europe
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year. Equal-weight mean across 23 countries.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived), aggregated by 4BYO across member countries. Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Hottest & Coolest in Europe this Month
1-month anomaly vs 1961–1990 across the 23 members we cover. Click a name to open its profile.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Europe
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of member country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS); precipitation: GPCC (DWD).
Monthly Temperature – Europe
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of member country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS); precipitation: GPCC (DWD).
Records – Europe
4byo continent aggregate · equal-weight mean of member country monthly absolute temperatures (OWID/CRU TS); precipitation: GPCC (DWD). - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Dfb · ContinentalHow spring and autumn have shifted in Europe. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (7.8°C, from 1940–1969); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 20.0°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Feb (+3.4°C).
4byo continent aggregate · OWID/CRU TS country monthly temperatures & precipitation: GPCC (DWD). Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Europe
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Continental land temperature anomaly. NOAA NCEI national & continental time series.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Europe changing?
Europe is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Europe come from?
Climate data for Europe comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Europe climate data cover?
The Europe climate profile covers Russia, Germany, France, United Kingdom and surrounding areas. The fastest-warming continent in the NOAA record
How often is the Europe climate update refreshed?
The Europe climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Europe climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Europe climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.