France Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Paris, Marseille, Lyon, Toulouse, Nice, and Monaco
Summary
France has just endured its hottest July since records began in 1940, with monthly average temperatures soaring to an extraordinary 23.84°C. The remarkable 4.5°C anomaly above the 1961-1990 baseline shattered all previous monthly records in 87 years of data. Across the country, consecutive heatwaves forced widespread water-use restrictions as soils dried rapidly and temperatures crossed 40°C in several regions. This historic heat capped a record-breaking three-month spell that ranks as the warmest May-to-July period in modern French history, with elevated warmth expected to persist into early autumn.
This month in numbers
The average temperature across France reached 23.84°C during the period, standing 4.5°C above the 1961-1990 historical baseline to rank as the 1st warmest July in 87 years of recording history. That surpasses all previous monthly temperature benchmarks on record. Globally, land surface temperatures for the month were the 3rd warmest on record with a 1.6°C anomaly, underlining how Western Europe bore the brunt of midsummer warmth. May to July combined also set a national record, averaging 21.0°C with a 4.0°C anomaly to take 1st place overall.
What changed
The relentless heat of recent months represents a dramatic escalation from earlier in the year. While the 12-month rolling average for France stands at a warm 2.34°C anomaly (ranking 33rd globally), the recent three-month surge placed France 2nd out of 232 countries and territories worldwide for its seasonal temperature departure (+3.97°C), behind only Switzerland. In the monthly context, France ranked 2nd globally for the month's temperature anomaly at +4.45°C. Within Europe, France was the warmest nation in the region, running 2.20°C hotter than the continental average anomaly of +2.25°C, as detailed on our regional overview at Europe.
What’s driving change?
The extreme summer conditions were primarily driven by persistent , where stalled high-pressure systems trapped blistering air masses over Western Europe. As rainfall lagged, further exacerbated the warmth, as parched ground could no longer evaporate moisture to cool the surrounding atmosphere. On a broader scale, a moderate El Niño in the tropical Pacific (currently showing a +0.98°C anomaly on the Relative Niño Index at ENSO) is intensifying and forecast with an 81% probability to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec. While the connection between ENSO and European summer climate is historically modest, record global ocean temperatures provided an elevated baseline for regional weather patterns to exploit.
Looking ahead
Long-range seasonal models from Météo-France and European forecasting centres indicate a high probability of above-average temperatures continuing across France over the next 1-3 months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – France
Köppen Cfb · TemperateFrance has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. August is typically the warmest month, averaging 21.2°C, while January is the coldest at 7.3°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1131mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – France
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – France
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – France
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – France
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – France
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfb · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in France. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (12.4°C, from 1940–1969); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 14.2°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Feb (+2.5°C). The warmest month has shifted from Jul to Aug.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for France
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in France changing?
France is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in France?
France has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. August is typically the warmest month, averaging 21.2°C, while January is the coldest at 7.3°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1131mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for France come from?
Climate data for France comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the France climate data cover?
The France climate profile covers Paris, Marseille, Lyon, Toulouse and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for France
How often is the France climate update refreshed?
The France climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the France climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the France climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.