England and Wales Climate
City Coverage: London, Birmingham, Cardiff, Manchester, Bristol, and Leeds
This month in numbers
March 2026 was notably warm for England and Wales, ranking as the 8th warmest March on record with an average temperature of 7.8°C, a significant 2.6°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. The first three months of the year, January–March 2026, also saw a marked warmth, ranking as the 9th warmest such period on record with a mean temperature of 6.13°C, 2.1°C above average. Frost days were exceptionally low, with March recording only 2 days of frost, ranking as the 7th fewest on record, and the January–March period seeing just 16 frost days, also the 7th fewest on record.
What changed
The persistent warmth in England and Wales contrasts with a global picture that also saw significant heat; global land temperatures for April 2026 ranked as the 2nd warmest on record. While March in England was drier overall, with 54.9 mm of rainfall, 17.8 mm below average, the broader January–March period was considerably wetter, with 305.5 mm of rainfall, ranking as the 10th wettest on record. This suggests a shift from a very wet start to the year towards drier conditions in March. England and Wales ranked 81st globally for its 1-month temperature anomaly and 80th for its 3-month anomaly, indicating it was warmer than many regions but not among the most extreme.
What’s driving change?
The warmer conditions in March, including temperatures reaching 20.9°C in Wales on March 18th, were influenced by high pressure systems and southerly airflows drawing warm air from Spain and the Mediterranean, along with the Foehn effect in western regions. This contributed to a period of unseasonable warmth. The current ENSO state is Neutral, with a strong probability of transitioning to El Niño by May-July 2026, with a 61% chance, increasing to 87% by July-September 2026. While the current Neutral state means muted ENSO influence, a developing El Niño typically brings cooler late winters to Northern Europe, though very strong El Niños have historically led to warmer winters. England and Wales experienced one wildfire event between April 25th and May 1st, which represents 100% of the annual total for the past 12 months, an unusual concentration. This included significant blazes in the Elan Valley and on the Gower Peninsula, with Natural Resources Wales warning of an elevated wildfire risk due to warm and dry conditions. The country also saw heavy rain and strong winds in early to mid-March, with wind warnings issued for parts of the UK.
Looking ahead
The evolving El Niño phase suggests a likelihood of higher temperatures across the UK during the summer months.
Sources:
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for England and Wales
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in England and Wales changing?
England and Wales is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for England and Wales come from?
Climate data for England and Wales comes from the UK Met Office HadUK-Grid (temperature, rainfall, sunshine, air frost), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the England and Wales climate data cover?
The England and Wales climate profile covers London, Birmingham, Cardiff, Manchester and surrounding areas. Combined England and Wales climate data across major cities
How often is the England and Wales climate update refreshed?
The England and Wales climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.