United Kingdom Climate – July 2026 Update
Coverage: England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland
Summary
The United Kingdom experienced an extraordinary spell of summer heat and drought, culminating in its warmest May to July period in 127 years of records. Exceptional sunshine accompanied the lowest July rainfall ever recorded in national data, plunging more than half of England into official drought status and leading health authorities to estimate over 2,800 heat-related excess deaths during summer heatwaves. Meanwhile, a moderate El Niño in the tropical Pacific is forecast to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec, with warm, dry conditions expected to persist through late summer.
This month in numbers
Mean temperatures averaged 17.4°C across the United Kingdom during July, sitting 3°C above the 1961-1990 baseline and ranking as the 2nd warmest on record for the month. Solar radiation reached historic levels, with 258.7 hours of bright sunshine making it the sunniest July in 117 years of monitoring. Conversely, precipitation collapsed to just 28.9 mm, marking the driest July in 127 years of data. Rain fell on only 5 days throughout the month, leaving gardens withered and hosepipe bans enforced across vast areas of the nation.
What changed
The remarkable warmth was not confined to a single month. Over the May to July season, the country recorded an average temperature of 15°C, a 2.7°C anomaly that represents the warmest such three-month spell on record. Globally, land temperatures in July reached 15.8°C, which was 1.6°C above average and the 3rd highest figure on record. While the UK as a whole ranked 24th globally for its monthly anomaly, individual regions saw far more extreme warmth, with Southeast England and Central South placing 3rd highest globally among all tracked territories with a 4.34°C anomaly, reflecting a broad heat dome across Western Europe.
What’s driving change?
The prolonged heatwave conditions were steered by stubborn high-pressure systems and marked that trapped continental heat over the British Isles. As rain failed to materialise, further intensified surface heating, as parched ground could no longer release moisture to cool the surrounding atmosphere. On a global scale, a moderate El Niño remains active, with the Relative Niño Index measuring a +0.98°C anomaly, as detailed on our live tracker at ENSO. Although tropical Pacific signals historically exert a weak and variable influence on northern European weather, the event contributes to record ocean temperatures that elevate baseline heat globally.
Looking ahead
Long-range outlooks from the Met Office indicate that above-average temperatures and further spells of hot weather remain more likely than normal across the United Kingdom through late summer and into autumn.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – UKUnited Kingdom
Source: Met Office UK Regional & National series (Tmean, Precipitation, Sunshine, Air Frost) © Crown copyright, plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – UKUnited Kingdom
Köppen Cfb · TemperateUnited Kingdom has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 15.8°C, while January is the coldest at 3.9°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1168mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – UKUnited Kingdom
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Heatwave Days – UKUnited Kingdom
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – UKUnited Kingdom
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Monthly Temperature – UKUnited Kingdom
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Records – UKUnited Kingdom
Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfb · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in United Kingdom. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (8.1°C, from 1900–1929); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 11.0°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Jun (+1.9°C).
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for UKUnited Kingdom
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
UK Tmean / Tmax / Tmin, rainfall, rain-days, sunshine and air-frost series. © Crown copyright.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in United Kingdom changing?
United Kingdom is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in United Kingdom?
United Kingdom has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 15.8°C, while January is the coldest at 3.9°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1168mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for United Kingdom come from?
Climate data for United Kingdom comes from the UK Met Office HadUK-Grid (temperature, rainfall, sunshine, air frost), Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the United Kingdom climate data cover?
The United Kingdom climate profile covers England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall, sunshine & frost data since 1884
How often is the United Kingdom climate update refreshed?
The United Kingdom climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the United Kingdom climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the United Kingdom climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.