Wales Climate – July 2026 Update
City Coverage: Cardiff, Swansea, Newport, Wrexham, Aberystwyth, and Bangor
Summary
Wales endured an extraordinary period of climate extremes, defined by record-breaking sunshine, unprecedented dryness, and severe heat that prompted Natural Resources Wales to declare a widespread drought. The month registered as the sunniest ever observed in 117 years of records, alongside the lowest July rainfall total in 127 years. This intense summer warmth capped the region's hottest May to July period on record, leaving landscapes parched and river levels depleted, with high pressure expected to keep conditions warmer than average into early autumn.
This month in numbers
The latest month delivered extraordinary statistics across Wales. The region recorded an average temperature of 17.8°C, which sits 3.2°C above the 1961-1990 baseline and ranks as the 3rd warmest July in 127 years of data. Sunshine totals reached a record 308 hours, surpassing the historic average by 134 hours to become the 1st sunniest month on record. Meanwhile, precipitation dropped to just 9.3 mm, a deficit of 71.9 mm that ranks 127th out of 127 years as the driest on record. With measurable rain on only 2 days, Welsh residents experienced a month of unbroken sun, baking soils, and scorched countryside.
What changed
Taking a broader view, the 3-month May to July period averaged 15.37°C, running 3.0°C above baseline to rank 1st out of 127 years as the warmest such period ever recorded in Wales. Nationally, the United Kingdom as a whole experienced similar warmth, averaging 17.47°C during the latest month (+2.9°C). Internationally, Wales ranked 14th out of 232 global regions for its 1-month anomaly (+3.24°C) and 16th for its 3-month anomaly (+2.97°C), forming part of a severe heat pattern that dominated Western Europe.
What’s driving change?
The relentless conditions were driven by persistent . Distorted allowed high-pressure systems to stall over the United Kingdom, trapping heat and deflecting rain-bearing Atlantic fronts. This warm pattern was amplified by , as parched ground lost its ability to cool the air through evaporation. Beyond local atmospheric setup, global background warming continues to raise baseline temperatures, with long-term warming in Wales reaching +1.34°C above baseline. In the tropical Pacific, a moderate El Niño (+0.98°C RONI) is currently active and forecast to peak at Very Strong in October to December (81% probability), as tracked on ENSO, though its direct impact on European summer weather remains historically variable.
Looking ahead
Extended-range seasonal outlooks indicate that high-pressure patterns are likely to maintain warmer and drier than average conditions across Wales into early autumn.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – UKUnited Kingdom
Source: Met Office UK Regional & National series (Tmean, Precipitation, Sunshine, Air Frost) © Crown copyright, plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Wales
Köppen Cfb · TemperateWales has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 15.7°C, while January is the coldest at 4.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1512mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Wales
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Heatwave Days – Wales
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Wales
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Monthly Temperature – Wales
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Records – Wales
Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfb · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in Wales. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (8.5°C, from 1900–1929); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 10.6°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Jun (+2.0°C).
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Wales
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
UK Tmean / Tmax / Tmin, rainfall, rain-days, sunshine and air-frost series. © Crown copyright.
Warm Spell Duration Index: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature, ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Wales changing?
Wales is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Wales?
Wales has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 15.7°C, while January is the coldest at 4.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1512mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Wales come from?
Climate data for Wales comes from the UK Met Office HadUK-Grid (temperature, rainfall, sunshine, air frost), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Wales climate data cover?
The Wales climate profile covers Cardiff, Swansea, Newport, Wrexham and surrounding areas. Welsh climate data spanning the south coast, valleys and west coast
How often is the Wales climate update refreshed?
The Wales climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Wales climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Wales climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.