Wales Climate – Sep 2026September 2026 Update
Wales experienced its warmest July to September period on record, capped by a remarkably mild month that ranked as the 5th warmest September in 127 years of records…
City Coverage: Cardiff, Swansea, Newport, Wrexham, Aberystwyth, and Bangor
Summary
Wales experienced its warmest July to September period on record, capped by a remarkably mild month that ranked as the 5th warmest September in 127 years of records. High-pressure systems delivered exceptional late-summer sunshine and persistent warmth, preventing any autumnal frost across the country. This extended period of heat followed a record-breaking summer season, before cooler and more unsettled weather is expected to develop in the coming weeks.
This month in numbers
Wales recorded an average temperature of 14.6°C, standing 2.2°C above the 1961-1990 baseline to rank as the 5th warmest September since records began in 1900. Average maximum temperatures reached 18.3°C, while nighttime minimum temperatures averaged 11°C. The month recorded 0 frost days, tying for 1st place in 96 years of frost records. Over the broader 3-month July to September season, Wales registered its warmest mean temperature on record at 16.4°C (+2.6°C anomaly), alongside 629 hours of sunshine, which ranked 3rd highest in 117 years of sunshine tracking. Monthly precipitation totalled 112.5 mm, which sits slightly below average at 64th place out of 127 years.
What changed
The remarkable warmth of recent months reflects a broader seasonal surge across Wales and the wider United Kingdom. Across the July to September window, Wales recorded a mean temperature anomaly of +2.6°C, contributing to a longer-term warming trend that has elevated local temperatures by 1.34°C above pre-1990 averages and placed 2025 as the country's 2nd warmest year on record at 10.27°C. Internationally, Wales placed 45th among 232 tracked regions for its 3-month temperature anomaly. This local warmth aligned with global conditions, where global land temperatures reached 13.63°C (+1.9°C anomaly) to mark the 2nd warmest September globally on record, while the 3-month global land average ranked 3rd highest at 15.04°C.
What’s driving change?
The persistent warmth and sunny skies across Wales have been driven by recurrent high-pressure systems and atmospheric that held cooler Atlantic weather fronts at bay through much of late summer. Because waters, terrestrial areas absorb solar energy rapidly during prolonged dry spells, magnifying local surface warming. On a regional scale, the North Atlantic Oscillation remained in a negative phase (+0.18), while the Arctic Oscillation stayed positive (+1.12), a combination that favoured stable air conditions over northwestern Europe.
Looking ahead
Seasonal climate forecasts indicate a gradual return to unsettled weather, with multi-week outlooks favouring increased Atlantic rainfall and lower temperatures across Wales over the coming months.
Sources:
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Long-Term Trends
Climate Insights – Wales
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature anomalies.
Climate History
30 of 30 events
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Heatwave Days – Wales
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Climate Map – UKUnited Kingdom
Source: Met Office UK Regional & National series (Tmean, Precipitation, Sunshine, Air Frost) © Crown copyright, plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Wales
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Monthly Temperature – Wales
Background lines: the last 40 years.
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Records – Wales
Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Typical Climate – Wales
Köppen Cfb · TemperateWales has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 15.7°C, while January is the coldest at 4.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1512mm (about 20mm of it as snow), spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfb · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in Wales. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (8.5°C, from 1900–1929); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 10.6°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Jun (+2.0°C).
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Extreme Weather
Alerts & Disasters - Wales
Live GDACS alerts in Wales - Red (Major), Orange (Severe) or Green (Moderate) - and the long-term record of weather and climate disasters.
Live Alerts
Alerts, Last 12 Months
Major
0
None since 2021
Severe
0
None since 2021
Moderate
2
UK Weather Disasters in 2024 - Latest Complete Year
Disasters
2
2.4 a year, 2015-2024
Deaths
578
946 a year, 2015-2024
UK Weather Disasters, 2015-2024
Most Frequent
Storms & Cyclones
11 of 24 disasters
Deadliest
Extreme Temperature
9,435 of 9,457 deaths
Disasters: EM-DAT, CRED / UCLouvain, via Our World in Data - 10+ deaths, 100+ people affected, or a declared emergency or call for international help; EM-DAT records them by country, so these are UK-wide figures. Alerts: GDACS.
Climate Drivers
Climate Drivers - Wales
The natural climate patterns that measurably shape seasonal temperature or rainfall in Wales, from this site’s own data since 1950 - long-term trends removed, and ENSO’s share taken out before scoring the others, so each is credited only for what it adds.
How readily Arctic air spills south - tied to the polar vortex.
Now: positive · +1.11 (30-day mean to 2026-10-15)
Strongest in Dec-Feb temperature: a positive AO tends to bring warmer conditions here, a negative AO the reverse (about 42% of year-to-year variation). Also Jun-Aug rainfall (positive AO: drier).
Polar Vortex / AOSteers the North Atlantic storm track - Europe's winters especially.
Now: positive · +0.37 (30-day mean to 2026-10-15)
Strongest in Dec-Feb temperature: a positive NAO tends to bring warmer conditions here, a negative NAO the reverse (about 39% of year-to-year variation). Also Jun-Aug rainfall (positive NAO: drier).
NAO TrackerEmissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Wales
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
UK Tmean / Tmax / Tmin, rainfall, rain-days, sunshine and air-frost series. © Crown copyright.
Warm Spell Duration Index: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature, ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
Live and archived alerts for cyclones, floods, droughts and wildfires, graded Red (major), Orange (severe) or Green (moderate). UN OCHA and European Commission JRC.
Weather and climate disasters (10+ deaths, 100+ people affected, or a declared emergency or call for international help). CRED / UCLouvain, via Our World in Data.