4 Billion Years On

Wales – Sep 2026

Wales experienced its warmest July to September period on record, capped by a remarkably mild month that ranked as the 5th warmest September in 127 years of records…

City Coverage: Cardiff, Swansea, Newport, Wrexham, Aberystwyth, and Bangor

Summary

Wales experienced its warmest July to September period on record, capped by a remarkably mild month that ranked as the 5th warmest September in 127 years of records. High-pressure systems delivered exceptional late-summer sunshine and persistent warmth, preventing any autumnal frost across the country. This extended period of heat followed a record-breaking summer season, before cooler and more unsettled weather is expected to develop in the coming weeks.

This month in numbers

Wales recorded an average temperature of 14.6°C, standing 2.2°C above the 1961-1990 baseline to rank as the 5th warmest September since records began in 1900. Average maximum temperatures reached 18.3°C, while nighttime minimum temperatures averaged 11°C. The month recorded 0 frost days, tying for 1st place in 96 years of frost records. Over the broader 3-month July to September season, Wales registered its warmest mean temperature on record at 16.4°C (+2.6°C anomaly), alongside 629 hours of sunshine, which ranked 3rd highest in 117 years of sunshine tracking. Monthly precipitation totalled 112.5 mm, which sits slightly below average at 64th place out of 127 years.

What changed

The remarkable warmth of recent months reflects a broader seasonal surge across Wales and the wider United Kingdom. Across the July to September window, Wales recorded a mean temperature anomaly of +2.6°C, contributing to a longer-term warming trend that has elevated local temperatures by 1.34°C above pre-1990 averages and placed 2025 as the country's 2nd warmest year on record at 10.27°C. Internationally, Wales placed 45th among 232 tracked regions for its 3-month temperature anomaly. This local warmth aligned with global conditions, where global land temperatures reached 13.63°C (+1.9°C anomaly) to mark the 2nd warmest September globally on record, while the 3-month global land average ranked 3rd highest at 15.04°C.

What’s driving change?

The persistent warmth and sunny skies across Wales have been driven by recurrent high-pressure systems and atmospheric that held cooler Atlantic weather fronts at bay through much of late summer. Because waters, terrestrial areas absorb solar energy rapidly during prolonged dry spells, magnifying local surface warming. On a regional scale, the North Atlantic Oscillation remained in a negative phase (+0.18), while the Arctic Oscillation stayed positive (+1.12), a combination that favoured stable air conditions over northwestern Europe.

Looking ahead

Seasonal climate forecasts indicate a gradual return to unsettled weather, with multi-week outlooks favouring increased Atlantic rainfall and lower temperatures across Wales over the coming months.

Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources

At a Glance

Temperature – Average

Wales
United Kingdom
Global
Land + Ocean
Sep
+2.1°C· 5th
14.6°C
+2.4°C· 4th
14.6°C
+1.2°C· 2nd
16.3°C
Record
15.6°C (2023)
15.2°C (2006)
16.4°C (2023)
Jul–Sep
+2.6°C· 1st
16.4°C
+2.5°C· 1st
16.2°C
+1.1°C· 1st
16.7°C
Record
16.4°C (2026)
16.2°C (2026)
16.7°C (2026)
2025
+1.6°C· 2nd
10.3°C
+1.7°C· 1st
10.1°C
+1.0°C· 3rd
15.0°C
Record
10.4°C (2023)
10.1°C (2025)
15.2°C (2024)
Headline: anomaly vs your baseline (1961–1990 where the record is too short) · small figure: actual value · Record: the record for the ranking above

Climate Insights – Wales

Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature anomalies.

Temperature
10-Yr AverageActual Year

Climate History

1607Flood

The Bristol Channel flood of 1607

Britain's deadliest recorded flood drowns both shores of the Bristol Channel on 30 January 1607, killing an estimated 500-2,000 people and inundating about 200 square miles of farmland up to 14 miles inland - the Somerset Levels in England and the Gwent Levels in south Wales alike.

Wikipedia, Phys.org

1945Industrial Aerosol

Post-WWII industrial expansion begins

After the Second World War, coal and oil use grew rapidly across Europe, North America and the Soviet Union. Global sulphur dioxide emissions rose from about 30 to about 130 million tonnes a year by 1980, and the sulphate haze they formed masked part of the greenhouse warming underneath - the effect known as 'global dimming'.

Klimont et al. 2013

1956Industrial Aerosol

UK Clean Air Act

Wales was covered by the Clean Air Act 1956 alongside England and Scotland, gaining smoke control areas and curbs on domestic coal burning from the same date - unlike Northern Ireland, which the Act did not extend to and which legislated separately in 1964.

The National Archives, Clean Air Act 1956, The Clean Air Act 1964 (Appointed Day)…

1962-63Other

The Big Freeze of 1962-63

A blizzard on 29-30 December 1962 struck Wales and south-west England, piling snowdrifts up to 6 metres deep at the start of a winter that went on to be the coldest since at least 1895 in every UK meteorological district.

Wikipedia, Wikipedia (2), Royal Meteorological Society, Norfolk Live

1963Volcanic

Agung eruption

Agung's eruption in Bali put a veil of sulphate haze into the stratosphere that cooled global temperature by about 0.3°C over 1963-66.

Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory

1976Drought

The 1976 UK drought

In south east Wales, the Brecon reservoirs dried up completely and mains water was switched off for up to 17 hours a day during the drought.

Countryfile

1979Industrial Aerosol

Global SO2 emissions peak

Global sulphur dioxide emissions peak at about 130 million tonnes a year, then begin a long decline as Europe, North America and Japan clean up their air. As the aerosol mask thins, the rate of global warming picks up through the 1980s.

Klimont et al. 2013

1981Other

The late April snowstorm of 1981

An exceptionally late snowstorm crossed Britain between 23 and 26 April 1981. More than 30cm fell widely across Wales, southern England, the Midlands and the north west, 20cm of it on the 25th alone across western England and Wales - deep snow in a month when spring is normally well under way.

Wikipedia

1981Other

The 1981 tornado outbreak

The largest tornado outbreak ever recorded in Europe began in Wales. On the morning of 23 November 1981 the first tornado touched down at Rhosgoch on Anglesey and tracked towards Amlwch, and minutes later the strongest of the day, rated F2, damaged 20 houses in Holyhead. Over the next five and a half hours 104 tornadoes touched down across Wales and England.

Wikipedia, Wikipedia (2)

1982Volcanic

El Chichón eruption

A sulphur-rich eruption in Mexico whose aerosol cloud stayed in the stratosphere for more than two years, cooling the Northern Hemisphere by about 0.2°C.

Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program

1990Pattern Shift

Daytime warming catches up with the night-led pattern

Across 1961-90, 81% of the world's land saw nights warming faster than days. Across 1991-2020 the pattern reversed: 70% saw days warming faster, as the industrial haze that had been dimming daytime sunshine was cleaned up. The study compares two fixed thirty-year windows; measured as a turning point, this site's own global series turns around 1982.

Zhong et al. 2023

1990Other

The Burns' Day Storm

Aberporth in west Wales recorded the storm's joint-highest gust, 107mph, on 25 January 1990. Gusts topped 92mph all along the west Welsh coast in a storm that killed 47 people across the UK and felled around 3 million trees.

Met Office, Royal Meteorological Society

1990Heatwave

August 1990 UK heatwave breaks 79-year record

The August 1990 heatwave reaches 35.2°C at Hawarden Bridge, Flintshire (2 August) - Wales's own temperature record at the time, which stood until 2022.

Deeside.com

1990-99Ocean Oscillation

Positive NAO phase dominates the 1990s

Wales sits on the wet side of a positive NAO. The strengthened south-westerlies of the 1990s met the Welsh uplands head-on, and that orographic lift is what converts a shift in the Atlantic jet into measurably wetter, milder, stormier winters here.

Hurrell 1995, Science, Atmosphere, 2021, Frontiers, 2022NAO Tracker

1990Flood

The Towyn coastal flood

Gale-force winds meet a high spring tide on 26 February 1990 and breach the sea wall at Towyn on the north Wales coast. Ten square kilometres flood, 2,800 properties are affected and around 6,000 people are evacuated - one of the largest peacetime evacuations in Wales.

North Wales Live, SurgeWatch

1995Ocean Oscillation

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation flips to a warm phase

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation flipped to a warm phase in 1995. For the UK it is one of the background rhythms sitting underneath the warming trend: warm AMO phases are associated with warmer North Atlantic surface waters on the UK's doorstep, and have been linked to wetter summers in parts of north-west Europe. It is a natural cycle of roughly 60-70 years, so it shifts the baseline rather than driving the long-term trend - which matters when reading any UK record set since the mid-1990s.

Learn more →

2000Flood

The autumn 2000 floods

2000 is Wales's wettest year in this site's record, which begins in 1900, at 1,886mm, and September-November brought 739mm - its wettest autumn too. Across England and Wales it was the wettest autumn since records began in 1766 and the most extensive flooding since 1947, with around 10,000 homes and businesses flooded at 700 locations.

Met Office, Parliament POST

2003Heatwave

August 2003 European heatwave (UK)

The August 2003 heatwave reaches 33.0°C at Valley, Anglesey (5 August) - beating Wales's previous record of 32.8°C, set in 1948.

North Wales Live

2007Flood

Summer 2007 UK floods

Wales shares in the England and Wales record of 414.1mm from May to July 2007, the wettest such spell since the series began in 1766, and South Wales is among the areas flooded in the final episode on 28 July.

Wikipedia / GOV.UK flood cost report, Met Office

2009-13Ocean Oscillation

Negative NAO blocking cluster, 2009-2013

Llysdinam in Powys fell to -17.5°C in December 2010, Wales' low point in a month that was the UK's coldest December since Met Office records began, driven by a blocked negative-NAO pattern with high pressure parked over Greenland.

4byo, Met Office, WikipediaNAO Tracker

2010Pattern Shift

Start of the sustained rise in UK heatwave frequency

Wales's own Heatwave Days count rose from a decade mean of 3.48 days in the 2000s to 9.18 in the 2010s, and 14.55 so far in the 2020s - one of the strongest versions of this UK-wide acceleration in the site's own regional data.

Met Office, State of the UK Climate

2013-25Pattern Shift

UK's post-2013 warmth acceleration

7 of Wales's own 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2013, matching the UK-wide pattern.

Met Office, State of the UK Climate

2014Flood

England and Wales' wettest winter since 1766

Winter 2013-14 (December to February) brought Wales 724mm of rain, 175% of the 1961-90 average - its 2nd-wettest winter since this site's Met Office regional record begins in 1901, a whisker behind 2015-16. Across England and Wales as a whole it was the wettest winter since the series began in 1766.

Met Office, Kendon et al. 2015, England and Wales Precipitation series

2015-25Pattern Shift

2015-2025: the eleven warmest years on record

Globally, the eleven warmest years on record have all happened since 2015. Wales's own record is a looser fit - six of its eleven warmest fall in that span, with 2014, 2011, 2007, 2006 and 1949 outside it. Its warmest year is 2023.

Learn more →

2018Other

The Beast from the East

The 'Beast from the East', compounded by Storm Emma, brings up to 50cm of snow to parts of South Wales (2-3 March). It followed a sudden stratospheric warming in mid-February that split the polar vortex.

Wikipedia, Wikipedia (2)Polar Vortex Tracker

2020Industrial Aerosol

Low-sulphur shipping fuel rule (IMO 2020)

New international shipping rules cut the sulphur allowed in ship fuel from 3.5% to 0.5% almost overnight, removing about 8 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide a year. With less sulphate haze over the oceans, it may have added around 0.1°C of warming by 2023-24.

Gettelman et al. 2024

2020Flood

February 2020 floods (Storms Ciara & Dennis)

Wales has its wettest February since records began in 1862, and Storms Ciara and Dennis bring the worst flooding since December 1979 - often to the same communities. The Taff at Pontypridd reaches its highest level since records began in 1968 and the Usk breaks its 1994 record; over 3,000 properties flood, at a cost above £81 million.

Natural Resources Wales

2020Flood

The UK's wettest February on record, 2020

February 2020 was Wales's wettest February in this site's Met Office record from 1900 - 295.3mm, nearly three times its 1961-90 average - as Storms Ciara, Dennis and Jorge followed one another in on a strong, southward-shifted jet stream. It beat the 267.7mm of February 2002, and Storm Dennis brought severe flooding to south Wales.

Davies et al. (2021), Carbon Brief / Met Office, NOAA CPCPolar Vortex / AO

2021Flood

Storm Christoph floods, January 2021

Storm Christoph's heaviest rain fell across north Wales and northern England on 19-21 January 2021. The Dee at Bangor-on-Dee, near Wrexham, rose to its highest level on record, and around 2,000 families across Wrexham, Merseyside and Manchester were moved from their homes.

Met Office, FloodList

2022Heatwave

The UK's first 40°C day

Wales set a new national temperature record of 37.1°C at Hawarden Airport, Flintshire, on 18 July 2022 - beating the 35.2°C that had stood at Hawarden Bridge since the August 1990 heatwave. The UK passed 40°C for the first time the following day.

Met Office review (via Carbon Brief), Met Office, Wikipedia, Met Office (2)

Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.

Heatwave Days – Wales

Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.

Heatwave days per year1976 (Record)10-yr avg

Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.

Climate Map – UK

Source: Met Office UK Regional & National series (Tmean, Precipitation, Sunshine, Air Frost) © Crown copyright, plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.

Year-on-Year Trends

The 4byo Climate Helix – Wales

1900→20261961–1990 baselineColdest (1963)2016–2025 meanWarmest (2023)2026 so far
2026Sep
WinterSpringSummerAutumnJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec1900-292016-25Spr Start−14 days1900-292016-25Aut End+13 days0°5°10°15°
Temp
11.6°C
+3.0 vs base
Precipitation
851mm
-529 vs base
Sunshine
1,439hrs
+87 vs base
Frost
17days
-37 vs base
Playback
8×

Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.

Monthly Temperature – Wales

All years since 19632023 (Warmest)1963 (Coldest)2026 (Current Year)

Background lines: the last 40 years.

Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.

Records – Wales

Latest data Sep 2026
Warmest year
2023
10.4°C
Coldest year
1963
7.5°C
2026 so far
#1/127
11.6°C

Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean

Typical Climate – Wales

Köppen Cfb · Temperate

Wales has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 15.7°C, while January is the coldest at 4.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1512mm (about 20mm of it as snow), spread fairly evenly across the year.

Warmest month
Jul 16°C
Coldest month
Jan 5°C
Annual rainfall
1492mm
Wettest month
Dec 192mm
Annual snowfall
20mmwater-equiv.
Snowiest month
Jan 6mm
RainSnow (water-equivalent)

Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.

Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.

Shifting Seasons

Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfb · Temperate

How spring and autumn have shifted in Wales. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (8.5°C, from 1900–1929); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 10.6°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.

Shifting summer
27 days Longer
Warm Season
1900–1929 Baseline: 2 May → 23 Oct · 174 days
2016–2025 Now: 17 Apr → 4 Nov · 201 days
−14d
+13d
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Spr 14 days EarlierAut 13 days Later
baseline avgrecent avgClick a marker for each decade
1900–19292016–20251900–1929 annual mean

Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Jun (+2.0°C).

Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.

Extreme Weather

Alerts & Disasters - Wales

Live GDACS alerts in Wales - Red (Major), Orange (Severe) or Green (Moderate) - and the long-term record of weather and climate disasters.

Live Alerts

Loading…

Alerts, Last 12 Months

Major

0

None since 2021

Severe

0

None since 2021

Moderate

2

UK Weather Disasters in 2024 - Latest Complete Year

Disasters

2

2.4 a year, 2015-2024

Deaths

578

946 a year, 2015-2024

UK Weather Disasters, 2015-2024

Most Frequent

Storms & Cyclones

11 of 24 disasters

Deadliest

Extreme Temperature

9,435 of 9,457 deaths

Disasters: EM-DAT, CRED / UCLouvain, via Our World in Data - 10+ deaths, 100+ people affected, or a declared emergency or call for international help; EM-DAT records them by country, so these are UK-wide figures. Alerts: GDACS.

Climate Drivers

Climate Drivers - Wales

The natural climate patterns that measurably shape seasonal temperature or rainfall in Wales, from this site’s own data since 1950 - long-term trends removed, and ENSO’s share taken out before scoring the others, so each is credited only for what it adds.

Arctic Oscillation (AO)strong link

How readily Arctic air spills south - tied to the polar vortex.

Now: positive · +1.11 (30-day mean to 2026-10-15)

Strongest in Dec-Feb temperature: a positive AO tends to bring warmer conditions here, a negative AO the reverse (about 42% of year-to-year variation). Also Jun-Aug rainfall (positive AO: drier).

Polar Vortex / AO
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)strong link

Steers the North Atlantic storm track - Europe's winters especially.

Now: positive · +0.37 (30-day mean to 2026-10-15)

Strongest in Dec-Feb temperature: a positive NAO tends to bring warmer conditions here, a negative NAO the reverse (about 39% of year-to-year variation). Also Jun-Aug rainfall (positive NAO: drier).

NAO Tracker

Emissions & Energy

Showing UK-wide figures - Wales is part of the United Kingdom. Sub-national emissions and electricity-mix breakdowns are not yet published in a unified format.

Explore

Explore Climate Data

Data Sources

Data Sources for Wales

Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.

FAQs

FAQs

How is the climate in Wales changing?

Wales is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.

What is the climate like in Wales?

Wales has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 15.7°C, while January is the coldest at 4.5°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1512mm (about 20mm of it as snow), spread fairly evenly across the year.

Which climate drivers affect the weather in Wales?

Measured from seasonal temperature and rainfall in Wales since 1950, with the long-term warming trend removed (and ENSO's own share removed before scoring the other drivers), the climate drivers with a clear effect here are: the Arctic Oscillation (AO) - strong, strongest in Dec-Feb temperature, which a positive AO tends to make warmer here (a negative AO the reverse), about 42% of year-to-year variation; the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - strong, strongest in Dec-Feb temperature, which a positive NAO tends to make warmer here (a negative NAO the reverse), about 39% of year-to-year variation. Their current state is shown in the Climate Drivers section of this page.

What extreme weather affects Wales?

In 2024, the latest complete year, the international disaster database EM-DAT recorded 2 weather and climate disasters across United Kingdom (EM-DAT records disasters by country), against an average of 2.4 a year in 2015-2024, with 578 deaths. Over those ten years the most frequent type was storms & cyclones (11 of 24) and the deadliest extreme temperature. GDACS, the UN and European Commission's disaster alert system, issued 0 Major (Red) and 0 Severe (Orange) alerts for Wales in the last 12 months. Live alerts are on this page and on the Extreme Weather tracker.

Where does the climate data for Wales come from?

Climate data for Wales comes from the UK Met Office HadUK-Grid (temperature, rainfall, sunshine, air frost), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.

What is the climate baseline used on this page?

Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.

Which areas does the Wales climate data cover?

The Wales climate profile covers Cardiff, Swansea, Newport, Wrexham and surrounding areas. Welsh climate data spanning the south coast, valleys and west coast

How often is the Wales climate update refreshed?

The Wales climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.

What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Wales climate page?

Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.

Does the Wales climate page include frost and snow data?

Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.

What major climate events has Wales experienced?

Major climate events in Wales include UK Clean Air Act (1956); The late April snowstorm of 1981; August 1990 UK heatwave breaks 79-year record; The autumn 2000 floods; Negative NAO blocking cluster, 2009-2013; England and Wales' wettest winter since 1766 (2014); The UK's wettest February on record, 2020. The Climate History panel on this page lists 30 sourced events and pattern shifts relevant to Wales, the earliest from 1607 - 21 about Wales itself and the rest global context such as volcanic eruptions and El Niño events. Each entry carries its own sources and can be searched, filtered to local events or by category, and sorted by date; scrolling the list moves a cursor across the chart above so you can see where each event falls in the record.

Where does the Climate History list for Wales come from, and how is it checked?

It is a hand-reviewed register, not an automatic feed. Every entry is sourced, and each one records how it was verified - against this site's own data series, against a peer-reviewed paper, or against the public record of the event. 21 of the 30 entries here are written specifically about Wales, usually quoting its own ranking or measured figures. The rest give global or national context shared with wider pages. Where a figure is narrower than it first appears, or a famous claim does not hold locally, the entry says so.

Are nights warming faster than days in Wales?

The Long-Term Trends chart has a Day/Night toggle showing Day Highs and Night Lows anchored around the average trend, so they always bracket it rather than both drifting to one side. Across most of the world, nights warmed faster than days from the 1960s to the late 1980s (air pollution dimming daytime sun), and days have generally been catching back up since, as skies cleared. Toggle Day/Night on the chart above to see which pattern Wales follows.