Wales Climate
City Coverage: Cardiff, Swansea, Newport, Wrexham, Aberystwyth, and Bangor
This month in numbers
March 2026 was notably mild for Wales, ranking as the 6th warmest March on record with an average temperature of 7.5°C, a significant +2.6°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. This contributed to the period of January–March 2026 being the 8th warmest on record. The month also saw a remarkable reduction in frost, with only 2 frost days recorded, making it the 3rd fewest frost days in 96 years of records. This is 7 fewer mornings scraping ice off the car compared to a typical March. Globally, April 2026 was the 2nd warmest April on record for land temperatures, with a +1.1°C anomaly.
What changed
The first three months of 2026 (January–March) saw Wales experience its 8th warmest start to the year on record, with an average temperature of 5.93°C, which is +2°C above the long-term average. This trend of warmer conditions aligns with the national picture, as the UK recorded its joint tenth warmest March on record. Wales also experienced its joint fourth warmest March on record, the warmest since 2017. Rainfall for the January–March period was above average, with 433.3 mm, ranking as the 30th wettest on record. This period also saw 59 rain days, the 8th highest on record. Wales currently ranks 87th globally for its 1-month temperature anomaly and 86th for its 3-month anomaly, placing it outside the most extreme warming experienced by other regions, particularly the striking concentration of US states dominating the top 10 warmest anomalies.
What’s driving change?
The significantly warmer temperatures in March, including parts of West Wales reaching 20.9°C on March 18th, the highest UK temperature recorded so far in 2026, were influenced by a positive () and the Foehn effect. A typically brings mild, wet westerlies to northern Europe. The Foehn effect further boosted temperatures in western regions as air descended over higher ground. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a Neutral phase, though El Niño is likely to emerge in the May-July 2026 period and persist through at least the end of 2026. While a Neutral ENSO typically means muted influence, a developing El Niño could bring cooler late winters to Northern Europe, including the UK, in its typical teleconnection.
Wales has also experienced an unusual concentration of wildfires recently, with one significant event between April 25th and May 1st, representing 100% of the annual total for the past 12 months. This wildfire activity, particularly in areas like the Elan Valley and Gower Peninsula, has been exacerbated by periods of warm and dry weather, increasing the risk of fires spreading rapidly across gorse land and bracken. More information on active extreme weather events can be found at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
El Niño is likely to emerge in the coming months, with a 61% chance in May-July 2026, and is expected to persist through at least the end of the year.
Sources:
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Wales
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Wales changing?
Wales is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Wales come from?
Climate data for Wales comes from the UK Met Office HadUK-Grid (temperature, rainfall, sunshine, air frost), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Wales climate data cover?
The Wales climate profile covers Cardiff, Swansea, Newport, Wrexham and surrounding areas. Welsh climate data spanning the south coast, valleys and west coast
How often is the Wales climate update refreshed?
The Wales climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.