US Upper Midwest Climate – March 2026 Update
Top States: Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa
This month in numbers
The US Upper Midwest experienced a significantly warmer than average month, with a 1-month anomaly of +3.08°C compared to the 1961–1990 average. The 3-month anomaly also shows a substantial warming trend at +3.75°C, while the 12-month rolling anomaly stands at +2.62°C. This places the US Upper Midwest within a broader pattern of warmth across the United States, as all of the top 10 warmest regions globally for the latest month were US states.
Hottest & coolest US states
Within the US Upper Midwest, Iowa climate page was notably warmer, registering a +4.32°C anomaly. Wisconsin climate page and Minnesota climate page also experienced significantly elevated temperatures, with anomalies of +3.20°C and +2.80°C respectively. There were no strikingly cool states within the US Upper Midwest this month.
What's driving change?
The current ENSO state is Neutral, with an anomaly of +0.11°C versus 1991–2020. However, forecasts indicate a shift towards El Niño ENSO tracker, with a 61% probability for May-Jul and a 79% probability for Jun-Aug. This developing El Niño is expected to bring more rain to the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The region has also experienced several significant weather events recently, including multiple rounds of severe weather, tornadoes, and widespread wind damage in April 2026. These events are consistent with the broader trend of , where winters are warming faster than summers and spring is arriving earlier.
Looking ahead
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's Week 3-4 outlook for late May to early June suggests a widespread tilt towards above-normal temperatures across much of the contiguous United States, including the Upper Midwest.
Sources:
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
Climate Map – USA
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance — US states & climate regions (tavg, pcp). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) or 1991–2020 (rainfall). See methodology.
Temperature – Average
US Upper Midwest – Monthly Temperature – All Years
Each line represents one year of monthly temperature in °C.
NOAA Climate at a Glance — regional tavg / pcp (monthly absolutes).
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsHow spring and autumn have shifted in US Upper Midwest. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (6.0°C, from 1950–1979); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 32.3°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Jan (+3.4°C).
NOAA Climate at a Glance — regional tavg.
Rainfall & Rain Days – Totals
Member States (4)
Hottest & Coolest in US Upper Midwest this Month
1-month anomaly vs 1961–1990 across the 4 members we cover. Click a name to open its profile.
Data Sources
- NOAA Climate at a Glance — Regional time series · NOAA code 102 · Open at NOAA
- Two-baseline model — comparison baseline 1961–1990; native baseline 1901–2000. Methodology →
Data Sources
Data Sources for US Upper Midwest
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in US Upper Midwest changing?
US Upper Midwest is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for US Upper Midwest come from?
Climate data for US Upper Midwest comes from authoritative climate datasets including national meteorological services and peer-reviewed reanalyses, refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the US Upper Midwest climate data cover?
The US Upper Midwest climate profile covers Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and surrounding areas. NOAA Upper Midwest - IA, MI, MN, WI
How often is the US Upper Midwest climate update refreshed?
The US Upper Midwest climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.