US Upper Midwest Climate – May 2026 Update
Top States: Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa
This month in numbers
The US Upper Midwest experienced a slightly cooler than average May 2026, with a 1-month anomaly of -0.17°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. However, the longer-term trends show significant warming, with a 3-month anomaly of +1.42°C and a 12-month rolling anomaly of +1.61°C. Globally, the latest 1-month data indicates that all of the top 10 warmest regions were countries outside of the US.
Hottest & coolest US states
Within the US Upper Midwest, Iowa stood out as the warmest state in May, recording an anomaly of +0.35°C US Iowa. In contrast, Michigan was notably cooler, with a 1-month anomaly of -0.70°C US Michigan, followed by Minnesota at -0.33°C US Minnesota. Wisconsin also saw a slightly cooler May, with an anomaly of -0.03°C US Wisconsin.
What's driving change?
May brought a mix of weather to the Upper Midwest. While some areas experienced near- or below-average temperatures, much of the region, including Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, saw drier-than-average conditions, with these states receiving about half of their average May precipitation and ranking among their 10 driest Mays on record. This dryness contributed to expanding drought conditions in parts of the Upper Midwest. Additionally, the region experienced severe weather events, with the Storm Prediction Center issuing an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Central Plains and Upper Midwest in mid-May, bringing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, particularly affecting areas of Iowa. This pattern of shifting precipitation and temperature extremes is consistent with seasonal shifts.
Looking ahead
An El Niño event is likely to emerge soon and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, which is associated with equal chances for below-, near-, or above-normal temperatures across the Midwest for the June-August period.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – USA
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance — US states & climate regions (tavg, pcp). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) or 1991–2020 (rainfall). See methodology.
Hottest & Coolest in US Upper Midwest this Month
1-month anomaly vs 1961–1990 across the 4 members we cover. Click a name to open its profile.
Member States
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – US Upper Midwest
NOAA Climate at a Glance — regional tavg / pcp (monthly absolutes).
US Upper Midwest – Monthly Temperature – All Years
NOAA Climate at a Glance — regional tavg / pcp (monthly absolutes).
Records – US Upper Midwest
NOAA Climate at a Glance — regional tavg / pcp (monthly absolutes).
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsHow spring and autumn have shifted in US Upper Midwest. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (6.0°C, from 1950–1979); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 32.3°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Jan (+3.4°C).
NOAA Climate at a Glance — regional tavg. Baseline: first 30 yrs on record. Recent: last 10 yrs on record.
Rainfall & Rain Days – Totals
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for US Upper Midwest
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in US Upper Midwest changing?
US Upper Midwest is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for US Upper Midwest come from?
Climate data for US Upper Midwest comes from authoritative climate datasets including national meteorological services and peer-reviewed reanalyses, refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the US Upper Midwest climate data cover?
The US Upper Midwest climate profile covers Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and surrounding areas. NOAA Upper Midwest - IA, MI, MN, WI
How often is the US Upper Midwest climate update refreshed?
The US Upper Midwest climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.