Minnesota Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Minneapolis, Saint Paul, Rochester, Duluth, and Bloomington
Summary
Minnesota experienced an exceptionally hot July, recording its 2nd warmest overall month in 77 years of records. A persistent mid-summer heatwave drove temperatures to 100°F (37.8°C) as far north as Kettle Falls on the Canadian border, while prolonged combined with northern wildfire smoke to trigger severe air quality alerts. The heat was paired with below-average rainfall, worsening drought conditions across the region, with elevated heat expected to persist into autumn.
This month in numbers
During July 2026, Minnesota logged an average temperature of 23.17°C, which is 2.5°C above the 1961 to 1990 baseline. That makes it the 2nd warmest July in 77 years of recorded data, behind only the record set in 2012. Daytime highs were particularly intense, with maximum temperatures averaging 29.33°C, the 4th highest on record. Overnight minimums brought little relief, averaging 17.0°C, which is 2.9°C above normal. Monthly precipitation totalled 82.3 mm, standing 11.1 mm below the long-term average and ranking 50th out of 77 years.
What changed
Over the May to July season, temperatures averaged 18.04°C, sitting 0.9°C above baseline as the 13th warmest such period on record. Rainfall over those three months totalled 223.27 mm, which is 48.7 mm below normal and ranks 67th driest out of 77 years. Relative to its neighbours in the NOAA Upper Midwest group, Minnesota recorded the largest warm anomaly of any state this month, as detailed at US Upper Midwest. Globally, the month ranked as the 3rd warmest July on record for land surface temperatures.
What’s driving change?
The mid-summer heatwave was largely propelled by , where broad atmospheric high-pressure ridges locked hot air over the central continent. This pattern was reinforced by , as moisture-starved ground could not provide evaporative cooling, converting solar energy directly into sensible heat. All of Minnesota's 2 wildfires this year happened in the past month. Active wildfires across the region are tracked on our live map at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
Seasonal climate projections indicate that above-average temperatures and lingering drought conditions are likely to endure across Minnesota into autumn.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – USUnited States
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance — US states & climate regions (tavg, pcp), plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Minnesota
Köppen Dwb · ContinentalMinnesota has a continental climate (Köppen Dwb: Humid continental - dry winter, warm summer), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 21.0°C, while January is the coldest at -11.1°C. Annual precipitation averages around 718mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Minnesota
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Heatwave Days – Minnesota
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Minnesota
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Monthly Temperature – Minnesota
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Records – Minnesota
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm/cold + wet/dryKöppen Dwb · ContinentalMinnesota has both a clear warm/cold cycle (±17.8°C) and a wet/dry cycle (6× wet:dry ratio). Both sides of the annual rhythm are shown below.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Oct (+15 mm, +31%).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Emissions & Energy
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Minnesota
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Statewide monthly temperature and precipitation (nClimDiv).
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Minnesota changing?
Minnesota is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Minnesota?
Minnesota has a continental climate (Köppen Dwb: Humid continental - dry winter, warm summer), with both a warm/cold cycle and a wet/dry cycle through the year. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 21.0°C, while January is the coldest at -11.1°C. Annual precipitation averages around 718mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Minnesota come from?
Climate data for Minnesota comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Minnesota climate data cover?
The Minnesota climate profile covers Minneapolis, Saint Paul, Rochester, Duluth and surrounding areas. Minnesota climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the Minnesota climate update refreshed?
The Minnesota climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Minnesota climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Minnesota climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.