Minnesota Climate
Top 5 Cities: Minneapolis, Saint Paul, Rochester, Duluth, and Bloomington
This month in numbers
Minnesota experienced a significantly warmer-than-average March 2026, with the average temperature reaching -0.5°C, an anomaly of +2.8°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline. This ranked as the 15th warmest March in 77 years of records. Maximum temperatures also reflected this trend, ranking 12th warmest at 5.67°C, an anomaly of +3.4°C. Globally, March 2026 was the 2nd warmest March on record for land temperatures, with an anomaly of +1.2°C. Precipitation for Minnesota in March was below average at 23.88 mm, an anomaly of -12.4 mm, ranking 58th driest.
What changed
The January–March 2026 period in Minnesota saw an average temperature of -6.44°C, an anomaly of +3°C, making it the 15th warmest such period on record. This continues a trend of warmer-than-normal temperatures, with March 2026 marking the 12th year out of the last 14 with above-average March temperatures in the state. Precipitation for the same three-month period was notably low at 17.53 mm, an anomaly of -6.9 mm, ranking 63rd driest. This contrasts with the national picture, where 8 of the top 10 warmest 1-month anomalies in the latest month were US states, indicating a widespread warming trend across parts of the country. Minnesota itself ranked 84th out of 234 regions globally for its 1-month temperature anomaly.
What’s driving change?
The persistent warmth in Minnesota can be attributed to , with winters warming faster at high latitudes. The current ENSO state is Neutral, with an anomaly of -0.16°C in the Niño 3.4 region for January–March 2026. However, forecasts indicate a dominant transition to El Niño by May–July 2026, with probabilities rising to 79% by June–August 2026 and 87% by July–September 2026. This shift could bring warmer and drier conditions to the region. Minnesota has also experienced an unusual concentration of extreme weather events recently, with two wildfires and one flood event occurring in April 2026, representing 100% of the annual total for each type of event logged over the past 12 months. Additionally, a drought event has been active since August 2025 and continues into April 2026, also representing 100% of the annual total for that type of event. These events are tracked on our Extreme Weather tracker page. As of April 21, 2026, approximately 20% of Minnesota is under drought conditions. Red Flag Warnings were issued across numerous Minnesota counties in April due to dry conditions and strong winds, increasing wildfire risk. Heavy rains and snowmelt in late April also led to flooding along the North Shore and northern Minnesota, closing trails and causing road damage in areas like Gooseberry Falls State Park.
Looking ahead
Forecasters suggest that April precipitation is trending wetter than average for Minnesota, which could help alleviate some of the ongoing drought conditions.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Minnesota
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Minnesota changing?
Minnesota is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Minnesota come from?
Climate data for Minnesota comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Minnesota climate data cover?
The Minnesota climate profile covers Minneapolis, Saint Paul, Rochester, Duluth and surrounding areas. Minnesota climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the Minnesota climate update refreshed?
The Minnesota climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.