Kentucky Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Louisville, Lexington, Bowling Green, Owensboro, and Covington
Summary
Kentucky experienced exceptional rainfall during late spring and early summer, closing out its 6th wettest May to July period in 77 years of recorded climate data. Summer heat remained elevated as July brought above-average temperatures alongside frequent downpours, before dry spells triggered a sharp increase in fire activity. All of Kentucky's wildfires this year occurred over the past month, with warm and damp conditions expected to linger into autumn.
This month in numbers
Seasonal rain defined the period, as May to July 2026 accumulated 450.59 mm of rainfall, an anomaly of +109 mm above the 1961-1990 baseline to rank as the 6th wettest May to July on record. Focusing on the latest single month, July recorded an average temperature of 25.44°C, sitting 1.3°C above baseline to rank 18th warmest on record. Maximum temperatures averaged 30.78°C (+0.4°C anomaly), while monthly precipitation totalled 149.35 mm (+29 mm above average), making it the 16th wettest July on record. Over the full previous calendar year of 2025, Kentucky averaged 13.96°C, sitting 13th warmest overall in a long-term warming trend of +1.43°C.
What changed
Across the three-month window from May to July, Kentucky averaged 22.03°C, placing 26th of 77 recorded years with an anomaly of +0.7°C. While Kentucky saw moderate warming compared to the broader United States July anomaly of +1.5°C, the planet as a whole experienced severe warmth. Global land temperatures for the month reached 15.8°C (+1.6°C anomaly, 3rd warmest on record), while the May to July period ranked 2nd warmest globally at 14.34°C (+1.5°C anomaly). Regionally, within the NOAA Ohio Valley US climate region group, tracked at US Ohio Valley, Kentucky ran 0.11°C warmer than the group mean anomaly of +1.14°C, placing 3rd among seven member states.
What’s driving change?
Sustained atmospheric moisture transport and helped drive persistent convective rain storms across the Ohio Valley during early summer, giving way to humid heat. As temperatures rose, local surface drying contributed to localized fire outbreaks. All of Kentucky's 3 wildfires this year happened in the past month, tracked on our live map at Extreme Weather tracker. Regional temperature trends also reflect broader global patterns where surfaces under rising greenhouse gas levels.
Looking ahead
Official seasonal outlooks indicate that Kentucky is likely to experience above-average temperatures and near-normal precipitation over the next 1-3 months as the region transitions into autumn.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – USUnited States
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance — US states & climate regions (tavg, pcp), plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Kentucky
Köppen Cfa · TemperateKentucky has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfa: Humid subtropical), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.3°C, while January is the coldest at 1.6°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1368mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Kentucky
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Heatwave Days – Kentucky
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Kentucky
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Monthly Temperature – Kentucky
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Records – Kentucky
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfa · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in Kentucky. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (12.8°C, from 1950–1979); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 24.0°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Feb (+3.0°C).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Kentucky
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Statewide monthly temperature and precipitation (nClimDiv).
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Kentucky changing?
Kentucky is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Kentucky?
Kentucky has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfa: Humid subtropical), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.3°C, while January is the coldest at 1.6°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1368mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Kentucky come from?
Climate data for Kentucky comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Kentucky climate data cover?
The Kentucky climate profile covers Louisville, Lexington, Bowling Green, Owensboro and surrounding areas. Kentucky climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the Kentucky climate update refreshed?
The Kentucky climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Kentucky climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Kentucky climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.