Kentucky Climate
Top 5 Cities: Louisville, Lexington, Bowling Green, Owensboro, and Covington
This month in numbers
Kentucky experienced its 2nd warmest March on record in 2026, with an average temperature of 12.67°C, a significant 5.1°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. Maximum temperatures also ranked 2nd highest for March, at 19.78°C, a full 6°C above average. Globally, April 2026 was the 2nd warmest April on record for land temperatures.
What changed
The first three months of 2026 (January–March) saw Kentucky record its 76th driest period on record for precipitation, with only 62.23 mm, a deficit of 36.2 mm compared to the baseline. This dry trend has led to an unusual early drought, with nearly 82% of the state experiencing some level of dryness as of April 16, 2026, a situation unprecedented for April since records began in 2000. Western Kentucky has been particularly affected, with November 2025 through March 2026 ranking as the fifth-driest five-month period on record for that region. Kentucky's March 2026 average temperature was 0.27°C warmer than its Ohio Valley climate region group average.
What’s driving change?
The persistent lack of precipitation, particularly during the winter of 2025-2026, is the primary driver behind the intensifying drought conditions. This dry pattern continued into March and early April, exacerbating moisture deficits. Warmer temperatures, with March ranking among the warmest on record, have also increased evaporation rates and triggered early plant growth, further accelerating soil moisture loss. The current ENSO state is Neutral, with a strong forecast for El Niño developing by May-July 2026, which typically brings warmer and drier conditions to Kentucky in the winter and spring months. ENSO tracker. Kentucky has also experienced two drought events and one flood event in the past 12 months, with these recent occurrences representing 100% of the annual total for both types, indicating an unusual concentration of such events. Extreme Weather tracker. Additionally, multiple tornadoes and damaging winds were confirmed across central Kentucky on March 15-16, 2026.
Looking ahead
While near-term rainfall would benefit newly planted crops, a sustained period of above-normal precipitation will be needed to fully recover the accumulated deficits.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Kentucky
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Kentucky changing?
Kentucky is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Kentucky come from?
Climate data for Kentucky comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Kentucky climate data cover?
The Kentucky climate profile covers Louisville, Lexington, Bowling Green, Owensboro and surrounding areas. Kentucky climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the Kentucky climate update refreshed?
The Kentucky climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.