Kentucky Climate – September 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Louisville, Lexington, Bowling Green, Owensboro, and Covington
Kentucky climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
A fresh climate update for Kentucky is being generated…
The new monthly summary is being written by Gemini in the background. This usually takes 5–10 seconds. The live climate data below is already up to date.
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Long-Term Trends
Climate Insights – Kentucky
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature anomalies.
Climate History
32 of 32 events
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Heatwave Days – Kentucky
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Climate Map – USUnited States
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance — US states & climate regions (tavg, pcp), plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Kentucky
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Monthly Temperature – Kentucky
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Records – Kentucky
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Typical Climate – Kentucky
Köppen Cfa · TemperateKentucky has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfa: Humid subtropical), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.3°C, while January is the coldest at 1.6°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1368mm (about 86mm of it as snow), spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfa · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in Kentucky. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (12.8°C, from 1950–1979); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 24.0°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Feb (+3.0°C).
Data: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (temperature/precipitation; frost: World Bank CCKP; snow: GPCC (DWD)).
Extreme Weather
Alerts & Storm Records - Kentucky
GDACS alerts in Kentucky right now, graded Red (Major), Orange (Severe) or Green (Moderate), and the long-term record of damaging storms.
Live Alerts
Alerts, Last 12 Months
Major
0
0.3 a year since 2021
Severe
1
None since 2021
Moderate
0
Damaging Events in 2025 - Latest Complete Year
Events
15
16 a year, 2016-2025
Deaths
36
24 a year, 2016-2025
Deadliest Since 1996
Damaging events: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database - storm episodes that killed or injured anyone or did $1M or more of damage. Alerts: GDACS.
Climate Drivers
Climate Drivers - Kentucky
The natural climate patterns that measurably shape seasonal temperature or rainfall in Kentucky, from this site’s own data since 1950 - long-term trends removed, and ENSO’s share taken out before scoring the others, so each is credited only for what it adds.
Steers the North Atlantic storm track - Europe's winters especially.
Now: positive · +0.37 (30-day mean to 2026-10-13)
Strongest in Dec-Feb temperature: a positive NAO tends to bring warmer conditions here, a negative NAO the reverse (about 28% of year-to-year variation).
NAO TrackerHow readily Arctic air spills south - tied to the polar vortex.
Now: positive · +1.05 (30-day mean to 2026-10-13)
Strongest in Dec-Feb temperature: a positive AO tends to bring warmer conditions here, a negative AO the reverse (about 27% of year-to-year variation).
Polar Vortex / AOENSO's route into North American weather.
Now: positive · -0.36 (30-day mean to 2026-10-13)
Strongest in Jan-Mar rainfall: a positive PNA tends to bring drier conditions here, a negative PNA the reverse (about 25% of year-to-year variation).
ENSO TrackerWeaker Links
A small signal in one season - easily outweighed by other weather, and possibly partly chance.
- ENSOweak linkJan-Mar rainfall (El Niño: drier, ~14%)ENSO Tracker
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Kentucky
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Statewide monthly temperature and precipitation (nClimDiv).
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
Live and archived alerts for cyclones, floods, droughts and wildfires, graded Red (major), Orange (severe) or Green (moderate). UN OCHA and European Commission JRC.
The National Weather Service's record of storms, floods, heat, drought and wildfires that caused deaths, injuries or damage, by state since 1996.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Kentucky changing?
Kentucky is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Kentucky?
Kentucky has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfa: Humid subtropical), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.3°C, while January is the coldest at 1.6°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1368mm (about 86mm of it as snow), spread fairly evenly across the year.
Which climate drivers affect the weather in Kentucky?
Measured from seasonal temperature and rainfall in Kentucky since 1950, with the long-term warming trend removed (and ENSO's own share removed before scoring the other drivers), the climate drivers with a clear effect here are: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - moderate, strongest in Dec-Feb temperature, which a positive NAO tends to make warmer here (a negative NAO the reverse), about 28% of year-to-year variation; the Arctic Oscillation (AO) - moderate, strongest in Dec-Feb temperature, which a positive AO tends to make warmer here (a negative AO the reverse), about 27% of year-to-year variation; the Pacific-North American pattern (PNA) - moderate, strongest in Jan-Mar rainfall, which a positive PNA tends to make drier here (a negative PNA the reverse), about 25% of year-to-year variation. There are also weaker links to El Niño / La Niña (ENSO). Their current state is shown in the Climate Drivers section of this page.
What extreme weather affects Kentucky?
NOAA's Storm Events Database recorded 15 damaging weather events in Kentucky in 2025 - storms, floods, heat, drought and wildfires that killed or injured anyone or did $1M or more of damage - against an average of 16 a year in 2016-2025, with 36 deaths. The deadliest since 1996 was the December 2021 western Kentucky tornado outbreak (10 December 2021), which killed 58. GDACS, the UN and European Commission's disaster alert system, issued 0 Major (Red) and 1 Severe (Orange) alerts for Kentucky in the last 12 months. Live alerts are on this page and on the Extreme Weather tracker.
Where does the climate data for Kentucky come from?
Climate data for Kentucky comes from NOAA Climate at a Glance (temperature and precipitation), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Kentucky climate data cover?
The Kentucky climate profile covers Louisville, Lexington, Bowling Green, Owensboro and surrounding areas. Kentucky climate data from NOAA Climate at a Glance
How often is the Kentucky climate update refreshed?
The Kentucky climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Kentucky climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Kentucky climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.
What major climate events has Kentucky experienced?
Major climate events in Kentucky include The 1950s drought; The cold winters of 1976-79; 1988 Midwest drought / Yellowstone fires; Start of the sustained rise in US heatwave frequency (2010); The 2012 drought and heat; The polar-vortex winter of 2013-14 (2014); The December 2021 western Kentucky tornado outbreak. The Climate History panel on this page lists 32 sourced events and pattern shifts relevant to Kentucky, the earliest from 1912 - 14 about Kentucky itself and the rest global context such as volcanic eruptions and El Niño events. Each entry carries its own sources and can be searched, filtered to local events or by category, and sorted by date; scrolling the list moves a cursor across the chart above so you can see where each event falls in the record.
Where does the Climate History list for Kentucky come from, and how is it checked?
It is a hand-reviewed register, not an automatic feed. Every entry is sourced, and each one records how it was verified - against this site's own data series, against a peer-reviewed paper, or against the public record of the event. 21 of the 32 entries here are written specifically about Kentucky, usually quoting its own ranking or measured figures. The rest give global or national context shared with wider pages. Where a figure is narrower than it first appears, or a famous claim does not hold locally, the entry says so.
Are nights warming faster than days in Kentucky?
The Long-Term Trends chart has a Day/Night toggle showing Day Highs and Night Lows anchored around the average trend, so they always bracket it rather than both drifting to one side. Across most of the world, nights warmed faster than days from the 1960s to the late 1980s (air pollution dimming daytime sun), and days have generally been catching back up since, as skies cleared. Toggle Day/Night on the chart above to see which pattern Kentucky follows.