Scotland North Climate
City Coverage: Inverness, Fort William, Thurso, Oban, and Wick
This month in numbers
Scotland North experienced a May that was 0.8°C warmer than the 1961–1990 baseline, ranking as the 39th warmest May in 127 years of records. Rainfall for the month was slightly below average at 80.6 mm, while sunshine hours were also down by 18 hours, making it the 96th sunniest May on record. Frost days saw a slight increase, with 4 days recorded, one more than the average.
What changed
Looking at the three-month period from March to May 2026, Scotland North recorded a mean temperature of 7°C, a significant 1.5°C above the 1961–1990 average, ranking as the 13th warmest such period on record. This contrasts with May's slightly above-average temperature, indicating a warmer start to spring. Rainfall for this three-month period was considerably higher than average, with 394.1 mm, ranking as the 12th wettest. Sunshine hours were also notably above average at 430 hours, making it the 19th sunniest March-May. Globally, April 2026 was the 2nd warmest April on record for land temperature, and the February-April period was also the 2nd warmest for global land temperature, highlighting a broader warming trend. Scotland North's May temperature anomaly of +0.77°C placed it 195th out of 234 regions globally, suggesting that while warmer, it was not among the most extreme globally.
What’s driving change?
The warmer temperatures observed in Scotland North, particularly over the March-May period, align with the broader trend of , where winters and springs are warming faster at high latitudes. The current ENSO state is Neutral, but an El Niño is strongly forecast to develop from May-Jul 2026 onwards, with a 98% probability by August-October. Historically, El Niño events have shown a tendency for cooler late winters in Northern Europe, though very strong events have sometimes led to warmer winters. The Met Office also noted a dramatic shift from heat to unsettled weather across the UK at the start of June, with a strengthened and south-shifted jet stream bringing gusty conditions and heavy showers, particularly to northern and western areas.
Looking ahead
The Met Office's long-range forecast for June, July, and August suggests that much of the UK is likely to experience near-average conditions overall, though with a slightly greater likelihood of warmer-than-average temperatures, reflecting ongoing long-term warming trends.
Sources:
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Scotland North
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Scotland North changing?
Scotland North is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Scotland North come from?
Climate data for Scotland North comes from the UK Met Office HadUK-Grid (temperature, rainfall, sunshine, air frost), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Scotland North climate data cover?
The Scotland North climate profile covers Inverness, Fort William, Thurso, Oban and surrounding areas. Northern Highlands and west coast climate data
How often is the Scotland North climate update refreshed?
The Scotland North climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.