Scotland North Climate – July 2026 Update
City Coverage: Inverness, Fort William, Thurso, Oban, and Wick
Summary
Scotland North recorded its 10th warmest May to July period on record, capped by an exceptionally mild July that brought 149 hours of sunshine and temperatures well above long-term norms. While intense heatwaves gripped southern Britain, northern Scotland enjoyed a more moderate warm spell alongside notably settled weather. Global temperatures also surged, placing global land heat in the top three on record, with cooler and more changeable conditions expected to take over into autumn.
This month in numbers
July 2026 delivered an average temperature of 13.6°C, standing 1.5°C above the 1961-1990 baseline to rank as the 20th warmest on record in 127 years. Sunshine was a defining feature, with 149 hours recorded, representing an extra 25 hours over the historical norm and ranking as the 25th sunniest July on record. Rainfall dropped slightly to 89.4 mm, which is 8.8 mm below average, across 13 precipitation days. On a planetary scale, global land temperature reached 15.8°C with a 1.6°C anomaly, marking the 3rd warmest July in 87 years of global record-keeping.
What changed
The three-month period from May to July 2026 averaged 11.6°C, marking a 1.3°C warmth anomaly and registering as the 10th warmest May to July season on record since 1900. Globally, the same three-month window was the 2nd warmest May to July on record for land temperatures, registering 1.5°C above baseline. Locally, Scotland North was notably cooler than the UK as a whole, where national July anomalies exceeded 2.9°C above normal. Nevertheless, the recent warmth continues a clear upward trajectory following 2025, which set the region's all-time annual heat record at 8.32°C amid a long-term warming trend of 1.05°C.
What’s driving change?
Regional weather patterns across northern Europe remain shaped by jet stream shifts that periodically allow high-pressure systems to build, alongside long-term that warms northern latitudes faster than the global average. On the global stage, a moderate El Niño is active, with sea surface temperatures intensifying toward a 93% probability of peaking as a Very Strong El Niño in late autumn. The live state of the Pacific cycle can be monitored at ENSO, though historical teleconnections suggest El Niño exerts only a weak influence on Scottish summer conditions. While Scotland North avoided severe weather disasters, active wildfires in Brazil are currently tracked at Extreme Weather tracker.
Looking ahead
Seasonal forecasts suggest that over the coming months, shifting Atlantic storm tracks and evolving global ocean patterns will likely bring more changeable weather and fluctuating temperatures across northern Britain through late summer and into autumn.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – UKUnited Kingdom
Source: Met Office UK Regional & National series (Tmean, Precipitation, Sunshine, Air Frost) © Crown copyright, plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Scotland North
Köppen Cfb · TemperateScotland North has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 13.3°C, while January is the coldest at 2.8°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1648mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Scotland North
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Heatwave Days – Scotland North
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Scotland North
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Monthly Temperature – Scotland North
Latest month is provisional and may be revised by the data provider in the next update cycle.
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Records – Scotland North
Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfb · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in Scotland North. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (6.6°C, from 1900–1929); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 9.7°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: May (+1.7°C).
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Scotland North
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
UK Tmean / Tmax / Tmin, rainfall, rain-days, sunshine and air-frost series. © Crown copyright.
Warm Spell Duration Index: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature, ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Scotland North changing?
Scotland North is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Scotland North?
Scotland North has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 13.3°C, while January is the coldest at 2.8°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1648mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Scotland North come from?
Climate data for Scotland North comes from the UK Met Office HadUK-Grid (temperature, rainfall, sunshine, air frost), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Scotland North climate data cover?
The Scotland North climate profile covers Inverness, Fort William, Thurso, Oban and surrounding areas. Northern Highlands and west coast climate data
How often is the Scotland North climate update refreshed?
The Scotland North climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Scotland North climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Scotland North climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.