Scotland East Climate – July 2026 Update
City Coverage: Edinburgh, Dundee, Aberdeen, Perth, and St Andrews
Summary
Scotland East recorded an exceptionally warm and settled period from May to July 2026, marking the region's 3rd warmest May-July on record. July 2026 brought persistent warmth and low rainfall, with average temperatures reaching 14.9°C (2.1°C above the long-term baseline) alongside just 40.7 mm of rain. Globally, a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Sep-Nov continues to build momentum at ENSO, with warm conditions expected to linger through late summer.
This month in numbers
July 2026 was the 12th warmest on record for Scotland East, posting a mean temperature of 14.9°C (+2.1°C above the 1961-1990 baseline) and an average maximum temperature of 19.5°C. The month was notably dry and bright, recording 190.4 hrs of sunshine (17th sunniest on record) and just 40.7 mm of rainfall, which ranked 120th of 127 years (8th driest). Rain fell on only 9 days, 3 fewer than normal, while frost days remained at 0.
What changed
The latest month caps a broader seasonal trend of remarkable warmth. The three-month period from May to July 2026 averaged 12.7°C (+1.9°C above baseline), standing as the 3rd warmest May-July for Scotland East since records began in 1900, behind only 2018. Total rainfall over those three months reached 173.9 mm, ranking 113th of 127 years. This local trend mirrored a hot global picture, as global land temperatures for May to July 2026 ranked 2nd highest on record at 14.34°C (+1.5°C above baseline). Long-term records show Scotland East has warmed by 1.13°C overall, closely following the region's warmest full year on record in 2025 at 8.48°C.
What’s driving change?
The persistent warmth across eastern Scotland has been pushed by that parked stagnant high-pressure systems over the British Isles during much of summer. This lack of precipitation triggered , where parched ground lacks the moisture required for evaporative cooling, converting solar radiation directly into atmospheric heat. On a planetary scale, global patterns are influenced by ENSO dynamics; the tropical Pacific currently exhibits a moderate El Niño, monitored at ENSO, though tropical ocean signals historically exert a weak and inconsistent influence on Scottish climate patterns.
Looking ahead
Extended seasonal forecasts indicate that above-average warmth is likely to persist across the region through early autumn.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – UKUnited Kingdom
Source: Met Office UK Regional & National series (Tmean, Precipitation, Sunshine, Air Frost) © Crown copyright, plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Scotland East
Köppen Cfb · TemperateScotland East has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 14.1°C, while January is the coldest at 2.4°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1162mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Scotland East
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Heatwave Days – Scotland East
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Scotland East
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Monthly Temperature – Scotland East
Latest month is provisional and may be revised by the data provider in the next update cycle.
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Records – Scotland East
Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfb · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in Scotland East. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (6.6°C, from 1900–1929); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 10.8°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: May (+1.9°C).
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Scotland East
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
UK Tmean / Tmax / Tmin, rainfall, rain-days, sunshine and air-frost series. © Crown copyright.
Warm Spell Duration Index: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature, ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Scotland East changing?
Scotland East is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Scotland East?
Scotland East has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 14.1°C, while January is the coldest at 2.4°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1162mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Scotland East come from?
Climate data for Scotland East comes from the UK Met Office HadUK-Grid (temperature, rainfall, sunshine, air frost), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Scotland East climate data cover?
The Scotland East climate profile covers Edinburgh, Dundee, Aberdeen, Perth and surrounding areas. Eastern Scotland climate data from Edinburgh to Aberdeen
How often is the Scotland East climate update refreshed?
The Scotland East climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Scotland East climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Scotland East climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.