Scotland Climate – July 2026 Update
City Coverage: Edinburgh, Glasgow, Aberdeen, Dundee, and Inverness
Summary
Scotland experienced an exceptionally warm early summer, capped by a May to July period that ranked as the 4th warmest in records extending back to 1900. While much of southern Britain endured intense heatwaves, Scotland saw somewhat milder conditions with sunny spells punctuated by rain in western areas. Meanwhile, a moderate El Niño in the Pacific is forecast to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec, with elevated warmth expected to persist into early autumn.
This month in numbers
Scotland recorded an average mean temperature of 14.5°C in July 2026, which is 1.9°C above the 1961-1990 baseline and ranks 15th highest for the month in 127 years of data. Bright weather brought 179 hours of sunshine, 37 hours above average and ranking 16th overall, while total rainfall reached 72 mm across 11 precipitation days. Globally, land temperatures reached 15.8°C, marking the 3rd warmest July on record worldwide.
What changed
The 3-month season from May to July proved even more notable, averaging 12.37°C (+1.6°C anomaly) to rank as Scotland's 4th warmest such period on record. Globally, land temperatures over the same 3-month window ranked as the 2nd warmest in 87 years. While Scotland ran noticeably warmer than its historical baseline, its anomaly remained moderate compared to southern England, where several regions recorded anomalies exceeding +3.7°C and ranked among the top ten warmest areas worldwide. Long-term, Scotland's annual warming trend stands at +1.11°C above the 1961-1990 average, coming off its warmest full year on record in 2025 at 8.61°C.
What’s driving change?
Scotland's elevated temperatures reflect broader global warming patterns, with and seasonal shifts driving disproportionate warming during early summer. Atmospheric circulation and kept warm air pinned across the British Isles while steering occasional frontal rain across northern and western districts. Across the tropical Pacific, a moderate El Niño is currently active and intensifying, as tracked at ENSO, adding background heat to the global climate system.
Looking ahead
Seasonal climate forecasts indicate a strong likelihood of above-average temperatures across northern Europe over the next 1-3 months, reinforced by the strengthening El Niño in the Pacific.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – UKUnited Kingdom
Source: Met Office UK Regional & National series (Tmean, Precipitation, Sunshine, Air Frost) © Crown copyright, plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Scotland
Köppen Cfb · TemperateScotland has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 13.8°C, while January is the coldest at 2.9°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1532mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Scotland
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Heatwave Days – Scotland
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Scotland
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Monthly Temperature – Scotland
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Records – Scotland
Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfb · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in Scotland. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (6.8°C, from 1900–1929); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 10.2°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: May (+1.8°C).
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Scotland
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
UK Tmean / Tmax / Tmin, rainfall, rain-days, sunshine and air-frost series. © Crown copyright.
Warm Spell Duration Index: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature, ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Scotland changing?
Scotland is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Scotland?
Scotland has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 13.8°C, while January is the coldest at 2.9°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1532mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Scotland come from?
Climate data for Scotland comes from the UK Met Office HadUK-Grid (temperature, rainfall, sunshine, air frost), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Scotland climate data cover?
The Scotland climate profile covers Edinburgh, Glasgow, Aberdeen, Dundee and surrounding areas. Wind energy leader with distinct climate targets
How often is the Scotland climate update refreshed?
The Scotland climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Scotland climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Scotland climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.