Scotland Climate – Sep 2026September 2026 Update
Scotland experienced an unusually mild start to autumn, highlighted by a total absence of frost and temperatures sitting well above historical averages.
City Coverage: Edinburgh, Glasgow, Aberdeen, Dundee, and Inverness
Summary
Scotland experienced an unusually mild start to autumn, highlighted by a total absence of frost and temperatures sitting well above historical averages. While persistent westerly weather brought frequent downpours to northern and western regions, the July to September period as a whole delivered unseasonable warmth right across the nation, with unsettled, wet weather expected to become more widespread into late autumn.
This month in numbers
In September 2026, Scotland recorded an average temperature of 12.3°C, which sits 1.8°C above the 1961-1990 baseline and ranks as the 10th warmest on record in 127 years. Overnight conditions were notably mild, resulting in 0 frost days across the entire month, tying for 1st place for the fewest frost days on record. Rainfall reached 169 mm, making it the 22nd wettest recorded, with 20 precipitation days marking the 12th highest frequency.
What changed
The mild start to autumn caps off a notably warm late summer season. Between July and September 2026, Scotland logged a mean temperature of 13.53°C (+1.6°C anomaly), marking its 5th warmest 3-month late summer period since records began in 1900. Frost days for the 3-month stretch also stood at 0, tying 1st place for the lowest ever recorded. On a national level, the United Kingdom as a whole experienced an anomaly of +2.3°C, meaning Scotland was slightly less extreme than southern England, though it still continues a long-term warming trend following its warmest full year on record in 2025 at 8.61°C.
What’s driving change?
The elevated temperatures and wet conditions across western and northern areas were driven by low-pressure systems pushing frontal rain bands across the North Atlantic. These patterns align with that steer moist, mild air over the country while suppressing cold Arctic outbreaks. Climate drivers like seasonal shifts and a positive Arctic Oscillation have helped maintain elevated background temperatures across high northern latitudes, continuing Scotland's warming trajectory of +1.11°C over the baseline.
Looking ahead
Long-range seasonal forecasts suggest that wet and unsettled conditions are somewhat more likely than average to persist across Scotland over the next 1-3 months.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Long-Term Trends
Climate Insights – Scotland
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature anomalies.
Climate History
33 of 33 events
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Heatwave Days – Scotland
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Climate Map – UKUnited Kingdom
Source: Met Office UK Regional & National series (Tmean, Precipitation, Sunshine, Air Frost) © Crown copyright, plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Scotland
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Monthly Temperature – Scotland
Background lines: the last 40 years.
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Records – Scotland
Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Typical Climate – Scotland
Köppen Cfb · TemperateScotland has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 13.8°C, while January is the coldest at 2.9°C. Annual precipitation averages around 1532mm (about 20mm of it as snow), spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfb · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in Scotland. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (6.8°C, from 1900–1929); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 10.2°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: May (+1.8°C).
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Extreme Weather
Alerts & Disasters - Scotland
Live GDACS alerts in Scotland - Red (Major), Orange (Severe) or Green (Moderate) - and the long-term record of weather and climate disasters.
Live Alerts
Alerts, Last 12 Months
Major
0
None since 2021
Severe
0
None since 2021
Moderate
0
UK Weather Disasters in 2024 - Latest Complete Year
Disasters
2
2.4 a year, 2015-2024
Deaths
578
946 a year, 2015-2024
UK Weather Disasters, 2015-2024
Most Frequent
Storms & Cyclones
11 of 24 disasters
Deadliest
Extreme Temperature
9,435 of 9,457 deaths
Disasters: EM-DAT, CRED / UCLouvain, via Our World in Data - 10+ deaths, 100+ people affected, or a declared emergency or call for international help; EM-DAT records them by country, so these are UK-wide figures. Alerts: GDACS.
Climate Drivers
Climate Drivers - Scotland
The natural climate patterns that measurably shape seasonal temperature or rainfall in Scotland, from this site’s own data since 1950 - long-term trends removed, and ENSO’s share taken out before scoring the others, so each is credited only for what it adds.
How readily Arctic air spills south - tied to the polar vortex.
Now: positive · +1.05 (30-day mean to 2026-10-13)
Strongest in Dec-Feb temperature: a positive AO tends to bring warmer conditions here, a negative AO the reverse (about 50% of year-to-year variation). Also Mar-May rainfall (positive AO: wetter).
Polar Vortex / AOSteers the North Atlantic storm track - Europe's winters especially.
Now: positive · +0.37 (30-day mean to 2026-10-13)
Strongest in Dec-Feb rainfall: a positive NAO tends to bring wetter conditions here, a negative NAO the reverse (about 49% of year-to-year variation). Also Jun-Aug rainfall (positive NAO: drier).
NAO TrackerEmissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Scotland
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
UK Tmean / Tmax / Tmin, rainfall, rain-days, sunshine and air-frost series. © Crown copyright.
Warm Spell Duration Index: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature, ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
Live and archived alerts for cyclones, floods, droughts and wildfires, graded Red (major), Orange (severe) or Green (moderate). UN OCHA and European Commission JRC.
Weather and climate disasters (10+ deaths, 100+ people affected, or a declared emergency or call for international help). CRED / UCLouvain, via Our World in Data.