Panama Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Panama City, San Miguelito, Tocumen, La Chorrera, and Colón
Summary
Panama recorded its hottest July since records began in 1940, as relentless equatorial heat pushed monthly temperatures to unprecedented levels across the country. The extreme heat, coupled with declining rainfall, prompted local meteorologists to issue thermal risk alerts and forced the Panama Canal Authority to announce fresh draft restrictions for ships transiting Gatun Lake. The record-setting warmth arrives alongside a moderate El Niño forecast to peak at Very Strong in Sep-Nov, with drier and hotter conditions expected to persist in the coming months.
This month in numbers
The average temperature reached 26.26°C in July 2026, sitting 1.8°C above the 1961–1990 baseline to rank as the 1st warmest on record for the month in 87 years. This eclipsed all previous July measurements in the national dataset. The broader 3-month period from May to July 2026 was similarly historic, averaging 26.22°C with a 1.6°C anomaly to secure 1st place for that seasonal window.
What changed
The seasonal trend highlights a distinct upward trajectory, with the 3-month anomaly of +1.6°C matching an unprecedented regional warming stretch. Globally, Panama's July anomaly placed it 100th out of 232 tracked regions, during a month when global land temperatures ran 1.6°C above average to rank 3rd warmest overall. Against Panama's long-term warming trend of +0.88°C above the 1961–1990 baseline, recent months represent a notable escalation from 2025, which averaged 25.19°C as the 12th warmest year on record.
What’s driving change?
Central to this surge in heat is the active ENSO phase, tracked live at ENSO, where a moderate El Niño is currently established with a Relative Niño Index anomaly of +0.98°C. Historically, El Niño events disrupt regional weather patterns across Central America by suppressing rainfall and elevating regional temperatures. This atmospheric response is reinforced by the principle that surfaces, accelerating temperature rises over the Panamanian landmass.
Looking ahead
National outlooks and climate models indicate that temperatures across much of Panama are likely to remain 2°C to 3°C above historical averages over the next 1–3 months, as the underlying El Niño carries a 93% probability of peaking as a Very Strong event between September and November.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Panama
Köppen Af · TropicalPanama has a tropical climate (Köppen Af: Tropical rainforest), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. April is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.8°C, while November is the coldest at 24.8°C. Annual precipitation averages around 2742mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly precipitation.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Panama
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Panama
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Panama
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Panama
Latest month is provisional and may be revised by the data provider in the next update cycle.
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Panama
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Wet / dry seasonsKöppen Am · TropicalPanama doesn't have a warm/cold cycle - its monthly temperature range is only 1.2°C across the year - but it does have a strong wet/dry cycle (the wettest month gets 7× as much rain as the driest). So we track how the wet season has shifted instead.
Monthly precipitation climatology. A “wet month” exceeds the baseline monthly mean (dashed gold line). Biggest month-to-month shift: Nov (+74 mm, +24%).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Climate Systems
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Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Panama
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Panama changing?
Panama is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Panama?
Panama has a tropical climate (Köppen Af: Tropical rainforest), with only modest temperature variation through the year, but a pronounced wet and dry season. April is typically the warmest month, averaging 25.8°C, while November is the coldest at 24.8°C. Annual precipitation averages around 2742mm, concentrated mostly in the wet season.
Where does the climate data for Panama come from?
Climate data for Panama comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Panama climate data cover?
The Panama climate profile covers Panama City, San Miguelito, Tocumen, La Chorrera and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Panama
How often is the Panama climate update refreshed?
The Panama climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Panama climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Panama climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.