Midlands Climate – July 2026 Update
City Coverage: Birmingham, Coventry, Nottingham, Derby, Leicester, Stoke-on-Trent, and Wolverhampton
Summary
The Midlands has endured a summer of unprecedented weather extremes, highlighted by its sunniest July on record and its driest since measurements began 127 years ago. With , the region logged 308 hours of sunshine and just 4.1 mm of rainfall, triggering official drought declarations across central England as reservoirs dried. Average temperatures reached 19.4°C for the month, while a moderate El Niño in the Pacific is forecast to peak at Very Strong in Oct-Dec, with warm and dry conditions expected to persist through late summer.
This month in numbers
Studying the statistics shows that May to July 2026 was the 1st warmest May to July on record for the Midlands, reaching a mean temperature of 16.7°C, which sits 3.5°C above the long-term baseline. For the latest month specifically, the region recorded a mean temperature of 19.4°C, an anomaly of +3.9°C vs the 1961-1990 baseline, making it the 2nd warmest July on record behind 2006. Maximum temperatures averaged 25.6°C across the region. Sunshine reached 308 hours, ranking 1st of 117 years with 131 hours more sun than usual. In stark contrast, rainfall plummeted to just 4.1 mm, ranking 127th of 127 years as the driest July on record, while a single precipitation day marked the fewest wet days ever observed.
What changed
The extraordinary summer heat is part of a broader sequence of intense warmth across Western Europe. Over the three months from May to July, the Midlands accumulated 735 hours of sunshine, ranking 3rd highest on record, alongside a cumulative three-month rainfall anomaly of -60.6 mm. On a global scale, July 2026 recorded its 3rd warmest land temperature on record at 15.8°C (+1.6°C above baseline). Across all 232 regions tracked globally, the Midlands ranked 7th for its 1-month temperature anomaly (+3.92°C) and 8th for its 3-month anomaly (+3.51°C), placing it within a striking European concentration where six of the ten warmest three-month anomalies were European countries.
What’s driving change?
Stalled atmospheric patterns and jet stream shifts have trapped hot air over central Britain. This severe moisture deficit triggered dry soil amplification, as parched ground can no longer evaporate moisture to cool the air, accelerating daytime heat. In built-up areas, the effect raised evening temperatures further. On a global scale, tropical Pacific conditions tracked at ENSO feature a moderate El Niño, which is currently intensifying and forecast to peak at Very Strong late in the year. While European teleconnections to ENSO remain historically modest, underlying global warming continues to elevate regional temperatures.
Looking ahead
According to long-range seasonal forecasts, warm and settled conditions are favoured to continue across the region through late summer and into early autumn.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – UKUnited Kingdom
Source: Met Office UK Regional & National series (Tmean, Precipitation, Sunshine, Air Frost) © Crown copyright, plus GPCC (Snow, water-equivalent). Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Midlands
Köppen Cfb · TemperateMidlands has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 17.1°C, while January is the coldest at 4.2°C. Annual precipitation averages around 840mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Midlands
Right axis: everything else standardized to standard deviations (σ) from its own average, since mm/hours/days aren't directly comparable to °C or to each other.
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Heatwave Days – Midlands
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI heatwave measure: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Midlands
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Monthly Temperature – Midlands
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Records – Midlands
Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen Cfb · TemperateHow spring and autumn have shifted in Midlands. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (8.6°C, from 1900–1929); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 11.9°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Jun (+2.2°C).
Data: Met Office UK Regional Series © Crown copyright.
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Midlands
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
UK Tmean / Tmax / Tmin, rainfall, rain-days, sunshine and air-frost series. © Crown copyright.
Warm Spell Duration Index: days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature, ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Midlands changing?
Midlands is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Midlands?
Midlands has a temperate climate (Köppen Cfb: Oceanic / temperate), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 17.1°C, while January is the coldest at 4.2°C. Annual precipitation averages around 840mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Midlands come from?
Climate data for Midlands comes from the UK Met Office HadUK-Grid (temperature, rainfall, sunshine, air frost), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Midlands climate data cover?
The Midlands climate profile covers Birmingham, Coventry, Nottingham, Derby and surrounding areas. Midlands climate data from the West Midlands to the East Midlands
How often is the Midlands climate update refreshed?
The Midlands climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Midlands climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Midlands climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.