Iceland Climate – July 2026 Update
Top 5 Cities: Reykjavík, Kópavogur, Hafnarfjörður, Akureyri, and Reykjanesbær
Summary
Iceland experienced another exceptionally mild summer month, marked by stark regional contrasts across the North Atlantic island. While the nation as a whole logged a warm month with temperatures well above the historical average, local weather diverged sharply as Reykjavík registered its wettest July on record while eastern regions stayed predominantly warm and dry. Globally, it formed part of the 3rd warmest July on record, with mild conditions expected to persist into autumn.
This month in numbers
July 2026 recorded an average temperature of 9.18°C across Iceland, standing 1.8°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. This ranked as the 20th warmest month in 87 years of records since 1940. Over the May–July season, temperatures averaged 6.22°C, with an anomaly of +1.6°C that makes it the 25th warmest 3-month start to summer on record. Worldwide, land surface temperatures reached 15.8°C, making it the 3rd warmest July globally, while the global 3-month average reached 14.34°C, the 2nd warmest on record.
What changed
Looking at the longer-term picture, Iceland has warmed by 2.06°C compared to its 1961–1990 baseline, with 2025 finishing as the 2nd warmest year on record at an annual average of 2.91°C. While European land areas experienced a combined July mean anomaly of +2.25°C above baseline, Iceland ran slightly behind the broader continent, sitting 0.42°C cooler than the European group average. Across 232 tracked global regions, Iceland placed 95th for its 1-month temperature anomaly and 96th for its 3-month anomaly, reflecting a steadily warming subpolar environment that tracks global trends without matching the extreme heatwaves seen in southern Europe.
What’s driving change?
Iceland’s rapid long-term warming pattern is heavily influenced by , which causes high northern latitudes to heat up far faster than the global average. Atmospheric dynamics, including and pressure variations linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation, dictate whether warm maritime air masses or polar flows reach the island, creating local weather splits between the capital and eastern fjords. In the tropical Pacific, a moderate El Niño is active and forecast to intensify, with a 93% probability of reaching Very Strong status in Sep–Nov, though historical teleconnections suggest its direct influence on northern European weather remains modest and variable. Live Pacific tracking is updated at ENSO.
Looking ahead
Seasonal climate models point toward above-average temperatures continuing across northern Europe over the next 1–3 months, keeping Icelandic weather comparatively mild as autumn approaches.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
At a Glance
Temperature – Average
Climate Map – Global
Source: NOAA Climate at a Glance (countries & continents) · Met Office (UK) · US states & climate regions. Anomalies are vs the 1961–1990 baseline. See methodology.
Typical Climate – Iceland
Köppen ET · PolarIceland has a polar climate (Köppen ET: Tundra), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 9.0°C, while January is the coldest at -3.3°C. Annual precipitation averages around 962mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Monthly climate normals (2016–2025) - bar colour and height show average temperature, the shaded area shows average monthly rain, with snow (water-equivalent) shown separately.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Long-Term Trends
Combined Timeline – Iceland
Precipitation, Sunshine, Frost and Snow are converted to standard deviations from their own average so they can share an axis with Temperature.
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Heatwave Days – Iceland
Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - days in a 6+ day run above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that time of year.
Data: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (ERA5-derived). Refreshed roughly 1-2x/year, ~7-8 months behind present.
Year-on-Year Trends
The 4byo Climate Helix – Iceland
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Monthly Temperature – Iceland
Background lines show the last 40 years (plus the record year and its opposite, wherever they fall).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Records – Iceland
Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP) - Anomalies vs 1901-2000 mean
Shifting Seasons
Warm / cold seasonsKöppen ET · PolarHow spring and autumn have shifted in Iceland. Spring is defined as the date monthly temperatures first rise above the long-term annual mean (-0.2°C, from 1940–1969); autumn is the date they fall back below it. Temperature swings 12.8°C peak-to-peak across the year - a classic four-seasons rhythm.
Baseline vs recent monthly temperature climatology. Biggest warming: Feb (+3.1°C).
Data: Our World in Data / NOAA (precipitation: GPCC (DWD); frost: World Bank CCKP).
Emissions & Energy
Explore
Explore Climate Data
Data Sources
Data Sources for Iceland
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) - see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
Country-level temperature anomaly, sourced from Copernicus ERA5 and Hadley HadCRUT5.
Annual country and global CO₂ emissions, from the Global Carbon Project.
Monthly rainfall - Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD) preferred, World Bank CCKP/CRU TS fallback where GPCC lacks direct coverage.
Frost Days and Heatwave Days (Warm Spell Duration Index), ERA5-derived. World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal.
Monthly snow water-equivalent, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (DWD).
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Iceland changing?
Iceland is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The headline panel also shows the long-term trend rate per decade and the warmest and coolest years on file.
What is the climate like in Iceland?
Iceland has a polar climate (Köppen ET: Tundra), with distinct warm summers and cool-to-cold winters. July is typically the warmest month, averaging 9.0°C, while January is the coldest at -3.3°C. Annual precipitation averages around 962mm, spread fairly evenly across the year.
Where does the climate data for Iceland come from?
Climate data for Iceland comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Iceland climate data cover?
The Iceland climate profile covers Reykjavík, Kópavogur, Hafnarfjörður, Akureyri and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Iceland
How often is the Iceland climate update refreshed?
The Iceland climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.
What counts as a Heatwave Day on the Iceland climate page?
Heatwave Days use the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) - the WMO/ETCCDI-standard heatwave measure: days that are part of a run of 6 or more consecutive days above the local 90th-percentile temperature for that calendar day. The 90th-percentile threshold varies by time of year (a hot day in January is judged differently to one in July) but is fixed to the 1961-1990 baseline for every year shown - it does not shift as the climate warms, which is why Heatwave Days trend upward over time.
Does the Iceland climate page include frost and snow data?
Yes. Frost Days (days with a minimum temperature below 0°C, World Bank CCKP) and snow water-equivalent (GPCC) are shown alongside temperature and precipitation, each measured against the 1961-1990 baseline where a like-for-like historical comparison is available.