Iceland Climate
Top 5 Cities: Reykjavík, Kópavogur, Hafnarfjörður, Akureyri, and Reykjanesbær
This month in numbers
Iceland experienced its 7th warmest April on record in 2026, with an average temperature of 1.61°C, a significant 3.2°C above the 1961–1990 baseline. The three-month period from February to April 2026 was the 2nd warmest on record, with an anomaly of +3.7°C, reaching 0.29°C. Globally, April 2026 was the 2nd warmest April on record for land temperatures, with an anomaly of +1.1°C, while the February–April period also ranked as the 2nd warmest globally for land temperatures, at +1.2°C above average.
What changed
The past three months have seen Iceland experiencing significantly warmer conditions, ranking 2nd warmest for the February–April period since records began in 1941. This warming trend is considerably higher than the overall European group average, with Iceland's April anomaly being 0.76°C warmer than its group average. The country's long-term trend shows a substantial warming of +1.95°C compared to the 1961–1990 baseline.
What’s driving change?
The warmer temperatures in Iceland are largely influenced by , where high northern latitudes are warming at an accelerated rate. The () was in a positive phase in February, March, and April 2026, which typically brings milder, wetter westerly winds to northern Europe, contributing to the observed warmth. While the current ENSO state is Neutral, with a transition to El Niño strongly forecast for the coming months, its direct influence on Iceland's recent warming has been muted. However, scientists in Iceland are increasingly concerned about the potential long-term impacts of , specifically a weakening or collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which could lead to a drastic cooling of the region, a scenario now classified as a national security risk. Iceland also experienced severe storms in February and April, with strong winds and snowfall causing significant travel disruptions and power outages.
Looking ahead
The NOAA CPC forecast indicates a high probability of El Niño developing in the coming months, with a 98% chance by August-October, which historically tends to bring cooler late winters to Northern Europe, though very strong El Niños have occasionally led to warmer winters.
Generated by Gemini from climate data and web sources
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Data Sources
Data Sources for Iceland
Every figure on this page is sourced from official, openly published climate datasets. Anomalies are calculated against the 1961–1990 baseline (temperature) and 1991–2020 (rainfall, sunshine, frost) — see the Methodology & Sources page for the complete dataset list and update calendar.
FAQs
FAQs
How is the climate in Iceland changing?
Iceland is warming in line with the rest of the world. The page above shows the latest monthly temperature anomaly versus the 1961-1990 baseline, the long-term annual trend, and the region's rank in the historical record. The trend rate is shown as °C per decade in the headline panel; you can also see the warmest and coolest years on file.
Where does the climate data for Iceland come from?
Climate data for Iceland comes from Our World in Data, sourcing Copernicus ERA5 and HadCRUT5 (national temperature anomaly) and the Global Carbon Project via Our World in Data (CO₂ emissions), refreshed every month, when the upstream temperature and rainfall data are refreshed.
What is the climate baseline used on this page?
Anomalies on this page are calculated against the 1961-1990 climatological baseline, which is the standard reference period used by the Met Office, NOAA, IPCC and most national climate services. Some panels also show the source-native 1901-2000 (NOAA) or 1991-2020 (WMO) baselines for verification. See Methodology & Sources for the full reference.
Which areas does the Iceland climate data cover?
The Iceland climate profile covers Reykjavík, Kópavogur, Hafnarfjörður, Akureyri and surrounding areas. Temperature, rainfall and emissions data for Iceland
How often is the Iceland climate update refreshed?
The Iceland climate update is refreshed monthly, typically a few days after the previous month closes and the upstream provider (Met Office HadUK-Grid, NOAA Climate at a Glance, Copernicus ERA5 or the Global Carbon Project) publishes its update. See the Climate Rankings for cross-region comparisons.